The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE)
Abstract
This paper intends to show the determinants of the forecasting of the growth cycle of the Gambia’s economy using a data from 1934- 2017. The impact of the variables under observation towards the growth of the Gambia’s economy was analyzed. I will use forecasting techniques together with Auto Regression Distributed Lags to find the impacts of the variable. Tourism, exports and taxes play a very crucial role towards growth of the Gambia’s economy. The growth cycle will be forecasted with a variable values on the GDP series at a VECR of 0.9 point, unrestricted variable of 0.7 and a Bayesian variable of an open interval of the CLT at 0.5-0.9. I will also make use of both the dynamic and static forecasting methods to reach the statistically significant conclusion. Keywords: Growth Cycle, Gross Domestic Products, Taxes, Investment, Net Exports and Tourism JEL Classification: B22, C10, C12, C13, C51, C52, C53, C55, C80, F43, Y1