Are Barbados Crime Rate Fluctuations Transitory or Permanent

Abstract

Using a model selection framework, this exploratory paper attempts to answer the fundamental question of whether Barbados crime rate fluctuations are transitory or permanent.  Although not clear-cut, Barbados crime rate series follows a trend-stationary process. It means that in Barbados an unexpected change in the crime rate should not substantially alter one's forecast of the latter in the long run. Put differently, in the long run the crime rate in Barbados should return to its natural rate. Keywords: crime, model selection, structural break, stationarity, Barbados