Niziol, Thomas A.

Pfendler, Amanda

Rochette, Scott M.

English

The College at Brockport, State University of New York: Digital Commons @Brockport

The College at Brockport: State University of New York
Digital Commons @Brockport
Earth Sciences Faculty Publications Department of the Earth Sciences
2002
Verification of day 4 through day 7 forecast for
Buffalo and Rochester, NY
Amanda Pfendler
National Weather Service, Buffalo, NY
Thomas A. Niziol
NOAA/NWS Forecast Office
Scott M. Rochette
The College at Brockport, rochette@esc.brockport.edu
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Repository Citation
Pfendler, Amanda; Niziol, Thomas A.; and Rochette, Scott M., "Verification of day 4 through day 7 forecast for Buffalo and Rochester,
NY" (2002). Earth Sciences Faculty Publications. 14.
https://digitalcommons.brockport.edu/esc_facpub/14
2ih Annual Northeastern Storm Conference 
Verification of Day 4 through Day 7 Forecast 
Amanda Tom Niziol 
National Weather Service, Buffalo/ NY 
Scott Rochette 
SUNY College at Brockport, NY 
ABSTRACT 
The National Weather Service recently embarked on a program to expand the 
public forecast suite to seven days. The obvious question that arose from forecasters was 
"just how accurate can we be with forecasts that far in advance?" The purpose this 
study was to analyze how well the Buffalo NWS office has been doing in the extended 
forecasts, days 4 through 7. 
This study looks at the extended forecast in the State Forecast Product (SFP) for 
the period July 2001 thru Jan 2002. Temperature and probability of precipitation 
forecasts were recorded for both Buffalo and Rochester, New York. The temperature and 
precipitation forecasts were then verified, for the afternoon issuance of the SFP, with the 
observations taken at the Buffalo and Rochester airports. The forecasts were also 
compared to the MRF-MOS (nledian range forecast) guidance and climatology. Statistics 
that were used to analyze temperature forecasts were Bias and MAE (mean absolute 
error). The Brier score was calculated to analyze precipitation forecasts. 


Verification of day 4 through day 7 forecast for Buffalo and Rochester, NY

https://digitalcommons.brockport.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1014&context=esc_facpub

Verification of day 4 through day 7 forecast for Buffalo and Rochester, NY

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