Presented at the School Conslidation in the Great Plains 2013 Symposium in Kearney, Nebraska

Blair, Robert F.

Deichert, Jerry

Drozd, David J.

English

The University of Nebraska, Omaha

THE DEMOGRAPHIC FOUNDATION OF EDUCATION IN THE GREAT PLAINSDavid Drozd, Robert Blair, Jerome DeichertCenter for Public Affairs Research, UNOwww.unomaha.edu/cpar www.facebook.com/unocparSchool Consolidation in the Great Plains2013 Symposium, April 6 – Kearney, NECenter for Public Affairs ResearchCenter for Public Affairs ResearchWhat is the “Great Plains”?Census publications show it to be a contiguous 10 state region from Montana and N. Dakota on the Canadian border to New Mexico and Texas on the Mexican border. Nebraska has a relatively high portion of its territory in the “Great Plains”. 2Center for Public Affairs ResearchThe number of school districts in the 10-State Great Plains declined sharply from 1952 to 1972, and have continued to fall but more gradually since05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0001952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN THE GREAT PLAINS: 1952 TO 2012 CENSUS OF GOVERNMENTS3Center for Public Affairs ResearchWhile each Great Plains state had a sizeable decline in school districts from 1952-1972, Nebraska has had the largest decline from both 1972-1992 and 1992-2012Number of School Districts in Great Plains States: 1952, 1972, 1992, and 2012 with Percent ChangesNumber of School Districts Percent Change 2012 as a % of 1952State 1952 1972 1992 2012 1952-1972 1972-1992 1992-2012United States 67,346 15,781 14,422 12,884 -76.6% -8.6% -10.7% 19.1%Great Plains States 23,496 5,049 4,148 3,194 -78.5% -17.8% -23.0% 13.6%Colorado 1,352 188 180 180 -86.1% -4.3% 0.0% 13.3%Kansas 3,984 331 324 306 -91.7% -2.1% -5.6% 7.7%Montana 1,287 552 537 321 -57.1% -2.7% -40.2% 24.9%Nebraska 6,392 1,374 797 272 -78.5% -42.0% -65.9% 4.3%New Mexico 106 89 94 96 -16.0% 5.6% 2.1% 90.6%North Dakota 2,079 386 275 183 -81.4% -28.8% -33.5% 8.8%Oklahoma 2,100 657 605 550 -68.7% -7.9% -9.1% 26.2%South Dakota 3,399 228 180 152 -93.3% -21.1% -15.6% 4.5%Texas 2,479 1,174 1,100 1,079 -52.6% -6.3% -1.9% 43.5%Wyoming 318 70 56 55 -78.0% -20.0% -1.8% 17.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 and prior Census of Governments4Center for Public Affairs ResearchNebraska had a relatively high proportion of its counties lose population during the 2000s, and many lost 10%+ of their populationCounties Losing Population and Losing 10 Percent or More of their Population, 2000 to 2010: U.S. and Plains StatesSource: CPH-T-1, 2010 Census Tables, U.S. Census Bureau (released 9-27-2011)AreaNumber of Counties*Counties having poulation loss in 2000sPercent of counties having lossCounties losing 10% or more in 2000sPercent of counties losing 10% of populationU.S. 3,137 1,095 34.9% 217 6.9%Colorado* 63 17 27.0% 9 14.3%Kansas 105 77 73.3% 23 21.9%Montana 56 28 50.0% 7 12.5%Nebraska 93 69 74.2% 23 24.7%New Mexico 33 14 42.4% 3 9.1%N. Dakota 53 42 79.2% 23 43.4%Oklahoma 77 23 29.9% 4 5.2%S. Dakota 66 41 62.1% 19 28.8%Texas 254 79 31.1% 22 8.7%Wyoming 23 2 8.7% 0 0.0%Plains states 823 392 47.6% 133 16.2%* The United States had 3,143 counties in 2010, but 6 counties including Broomfield in Colorado did not exist in both 2000 and 2010, so they were excluded from this analysis.5Center for Public Affairs Research125,000175,000225,000275,000196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015Number of Children Age 5-17 (based on 13 years of births)School Age Population in Specific Year (based on 13-year period of births starting 5 years prior)School Age (K-12) Population based on 13-Year Periods of Births to Residents of Metro and Nonmetro Nebraska Counties (Based on Births between 1946 and 2011)MetroNonmetroSource: Vital Statistics, NE Dept of Health and Human Services; Compiled by CPAR @ UNONote: this is based on births alone, migration factors are excluded.Those age 5-17 in 2016 are born between 1999 and 2011.Those age 5-17 in 1963 were born between 1946 and 1958.Shifts in school-age population between metro/nonmetro areas6Center for Public Affairs ResearchNebraska nonmetro fertility rates trail those in metro areas, which is unusual among Plains states; births to unmarried mothers are similar among NE metro & nonmetro areasFertility Rates and Births to Unmarried Mothers: U.S. and Great Plains States with Metro and NonmetroDifferencesSource: S1301 and B13002, 2007-2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census BureauNote: A higher birthrate but low percentage of birth to unmarried mothers is typically desired. Thus, better state rankings are closer to 1 while lower rankings are closer to 51.Fertility Rate per 1,000 Women Aged 15-50 Percent of Births to Unmarried MothersAreaArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroU.S. 56.3 n/a 56.0 58.0 2.0 103.6 34.5 n/a 33.8 38.1 4.3 112.7Colorado 57.6 25 57.8 56.7 -1.1 98.1 27.1 4 27.4 24.6 -2.8 89.8Kansas 64.1 6 62.8 67.3 4.5 107.1 30.8 16 29.1 34.7 5.6 119.2Montana 58.8 19 54.6 61.3 6.7 112.2 31.3 17 30.7 31.7 1.0 103.3Nebraska 64.3 5 67.0 59.8 -7.2 89.2 29.2 7 29.1 29.6 0.5 101.7New Mexico 62.3 9 61.2 64.6 3.4 105.6 45.4 48 42.6 51.2 8.6 120.2N. Dakota 60.8 11 58.8 63.1 4.3 107.3 30.5 11 26.8 34.5 7.7 128.7Oklahoma 60.4 14 60.9 59.5 -1.4 97.7 35.2 32 33.4 38.9 5.5 116.5S. Dakota 63.8 7 62.6 65.0 2.4 103.8 35.8 34 35.5 36.1 0.6 101.7Texas 64.6 4 64.3 67.2 2.9 104.5 34.1 25 33.5 38.4 4.9 114.6Wyoming 58.3 21 47.8 62.8 15.0 131.4 32.1 20 39.6 29.6 -10.0 74.7Plains states 61.5 12.1 59.8 62.7 2.9 105.7 33.2 21.4 32.8 34.9 2.2 107.07OTHER METRO VS. NONMETRODIFFERENCESCenter for Public Affairs Research 8Center for Public Affairs ResearchNebraska has relatively high differences for median age and the percent of the population aged 65+ between metro and nonmetro areasMedian Age and Percent of Population Aged 65 Years and Older: U.S. and Great Plains States with Metro and Nonmetro DifferencesSource: DP-1 SF1, 2010 Census, U.S. Census BureauNote: A younger age structure is typically desired. Thus, better state rankings are closer to 1 while lower rankings are closer to 51.Median Age (years) Percent of Population Aged 65 or OlderAreaArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroU.S. 37.2 n/a 36.6 40.3 3.7 110.1 13.0 n/a 12.4 16.1 3.7 129.8Colorado 36.1 12 35.6 39.5 3.9 111.0 10.9 5 10.5 13.6 3.1 129.5Kansas 36.0 10 34.8 39.1 4.3 112.4 13.2 20 11.6 16.7 5.1 144.0Montana 39.8 44 37.5 41.2 3.7 109.9 14.8 46 13.7 15.1 1.4 110.2Nebraska 36.2 13 33.6 40.5 6.9 120.5 13.5 25 10.8 17.4 6.6 161.1New Mexico 36.7 17 36.2 37.6 1.4 103.9 13.2 21 12.5 14.7 2.2 117.6N. Dakota 37.0 20 33.0 41.5 8.5 125.8 14.5 44 11.2 17.6 6.4 157.1Oklahoma 36.2 13 35.3 38.2 2.9 108.2 13.5 26 12.2 15.8 3.6 129.5S. Dakota 36.9 19 35.4 38.6 3.2 109.0 14.3 39 12.0 16.3 4.3 135.8Texas 33.6 2 33.0 38.6 5.6 117.0 10.3 3 9.6 16.0 6.4 166.7Wyoming 36.8 18 36.9 36.8 -0.1 99.7 12.4 14 12.5 12.4 -0.1 99.2Plains states 36.5 16.8 35.1 39.2 4.0 111.7 13.1 24.3 11.7 15.6 3.9 135.19Center for Public Affairs ResearchEach Plains State saw declines in White non-Hispanic children but sizeable gains among minority children during the 2000s; Nebraska changes differed among White non-Hispanics but not among minorities when comparing metro vs. nonmetroPopulation Change for Those Under Age 18 along with Changes for the White non Hispanic and Minority Population, 2000 to 2010: U.S. and Plains StatesSources: Tables P012 and P012I SF1 Census 2000; Tables P12 and P12I SF1 Census 2010, U.S. Census BureauAreaUnder 18 Population 2000Under 18 Population 2010Percent ChangeWhite non Hispanic Under 18: 2000White non Hispanic Under 18: 2010Percent ChangeMinority Population Under 18: 2000Minority Population Under 18: 2010Percent ChangeMinority Percent <18: 2000Minority Percent <18: 2010 ChangeU.S. 72,293,812 74,181,467 2.6% 44,027,087 39,716,562 -9.8% 28,266,725 34,464,905 21.9% 39.1% 46.5% 7.4Colorado 1,100,795 1,225,609 11.3% 729,020 710,280 -2.6% 371,775 515,329 38.6% 33.8% 42.0% 8.3Kansas 712,993 726,939 2.0% 549,117 498,360 -9.2% 163,876 228,579 39.5% 23.0% 31.4% 8.5Montana 230,062 223,563 -2.8% 193,123 179,440 -7.1% 36,939 44,123 19.4% 16.1% 19.7% 3.7Nebraska 450,242 459,221 2.0% 368,126 332,797 -9.6% 82,116 126,424 54.0% 18.2% 27.5% 9.3New Mexico 508,574 518,672 2.0% 165,301 135,962 -17.7% 343,273 382,710 11.5% 67.5% 73.8% 6.3N. Dakota 160,849 149,871 -6.8% 139,319 122,321 -12.2% 21,530 27,550 28.0% 13.4% 18.4% 5.0Oklahoma 892,360 929,666 4.2% 576,731 519,877 -9.9% 315,629 409,789 29.8% 35.4% 44.1% 8.7S. Dakota 202,649 202,797 0.1% 163,354 152,433 -6.7% 39,295 50,364 28.2% 19.4% 24.8% 5.4Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 16.6% 2,507,147 2,322,661 -7.4% 3,379,612 4,543,163 34.4% 57.4% 66.2% 8.8Wyoming 128,873 135,402 5.1% 109,175 107,344 -1.7% 19,698 28,058 42.4% 15.3% 20.7% 5.4Plains states 10,274,156 11,437,564 11.3% 5,500,413 5,081,475 -7.6% 4,773,743 6,356,089 33.1% 46.5% 55.6% 9.1NE metro 248,823 275,018 10.5% 192,716 188,813 -2.0% 56,107 86,205 53.6% 22.5% 31.3% 8.8NE nonmetro 201,419 184,203 -8.5% 175,410 143,984 -17.9% 26,009 40,219 54.6% 12.9% 21.8% 8.910Center for Public Affairs ResearchNebraska has the largest gap in attainment of Higher Education between metro and nonmetro areasPercentage of High School or More and Bachelor's Degree or More Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 or Older: U.S. and Great Plains States with Metro and Nonmetro DifferencesSource: S1501, 2007-2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census BureauNote: High educational attainment is typically desired. Thus, better state rankings are closer to 1 while lower rankings are closer to 51.High School or More for Age 25+ Bachelor's Degree or More for Age 25+AreaArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroU.S. 85.4 n/a 85.9 83.0 -2.9 96.6 28.2 n/a 30.3 17.7 -12.6 58.4Colorado 89.7 16 90.1 87.4 -2.7 97.0 36.3 3 37.7 28.2 -9.5 74.8Kansas 89.5 17 91.0 86.5 -4.5 95.1 29.7 16 34.5 19.9 -14.6 57.7Montana 91.4 3 92.0 91.1 -0.9 99.0 28.2 20 30.5 26.9 -3.6 88.2Nebraska 90.3 9 91.4 88.8 -2.6 97.2 27.8 22 34.3 19.3 -15.0 56.3New Mexico 83.1 43 84.6 79.9 -4.7 94.4 25.4 34 28.8 18.8 -10.0 65.3N. Dakota 90.0 12 93.0 87.4 -5.6 94.0 26.5 27 33.4 20.7 -12.7 62.0Oklahoma 85.9 33 87.3 83.3 -4.0 95.4 23.0 43 25.8 18.2 -7.6 70.5S. Dakota 89.8 14 91.7 88.1 -3.6 96.1 25.8 33 28.8 23.4 -5.4 81.3Texas 80.4 50 81.0 76.5 -4.5 94.4 26.1 30 27.6 15.4 -12.2 55.8Wyoming 91.9 1 92.1 91.8 -0.3 99.7 24.2 40 23.1 24.7 1.6 106.9Plains states 88.2 19.8 89.4 86.1 -3.3 96.2 27.3 26.8 30.5 21.6 -8.9 71.911Center for Public Affairs ResearchPoverty rates are higher in nonmetro parts of Nebraska, but the difference is relatively low compared to other Plains StatesPoverty Rates for All Persons and Children Under 18 Years Old: U.S. and Great Plains States with Metro and Nonmetro DifferencesSource: S1701, 2007-2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census BureauNote: Low levels of poverty are typically desired. Thus, better state rankings are closer to 1 while lower rankings are closer to 51.Poverty Rate among All Persons Poverty Rate among Children < 18 years oldAreaArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroArea total Rank MetroNon-metroNonmetro less MetroNonmetro % of metroU.S. 14.3 n/a 13.8 17.0 3.2 123.2 20.0 n/a 19.2 24.0 4.8 125.0Colorado 12.5 19 12.4 13.3 0.9 107.3 16.6 18 16.4 17.8 1.4 108.5Kansas 12.6 20 12.1 13.9 1.8 114.9 16.8 20 15.7 19.2 3.5 122.3Montana 14.6 32 13.9 15.0 1.1 107.9 19.4 28 16.8 20.8 4.0 123.8Nebraska 12.0 16 11.9 12.2 0.3 102.5 16.1 15 15.9 16.4 0.5 103.1New Mexico 19.0 50 18.1 20.7 2.6 114.4 27.0 49 25.9 29.3 3.4 113.1N. Dakota 12.3 17 12.4 12.1 -0.3 97.6 14.4 13 12.1 16.6 4.5 137.2Oklahoma 16.3 39 15.0 18.5 3.5 123.3 22.9 40 21.5 25.7 4.2 119.5S. Dakota 13.8 26 10.2 16.8 6.6 164.7 17.8 23 13.3 21.6 8.3 162.4Texas 17.0 43 16.8 19.0 2.2 113.1 24.3 43 24.0 27.4 3.4 114.2Wyoming 10.1 6 8.9 10.7 1.8 120.2 13.4 7 12.1 13.9 1.8 114.9Plains states 14.0 26.8 13.2 15.2 2.1 116.6 18.9 25.6 17.4 20.9 3.5 121.912NOTES• New 2013 metro definitions based off 2010 Census results and 2006-10 ACS commuting patterns were released in March.• Nebraska now has a Grand Island metro area; other states surely had changes as well.• The metro definitions used in this study were those in place prior to this major revamp of county-based classifications.• With an increasing number of inter-racial and multi-racial families, changes in number of White non-Hispanic children can be a bit “unfair”.• Children of couples where one parent is White and the other is minority, are typically considered minority.• The typical racial classification approach is then understating White children to a certain degree.Center for Public Affairs Research 13IMPLICATIONS• Nonmetropolitan areas are likely to see continued population loss.• Deaths exceed births in about half of Nebraska’s counties; most counties have net outmigration.• Often it is the “best and brightest” who move away (for college). What incentives exist for them to return??• Beyond a smaller school-aged population, this leads to an older population with fewer direct connections to schools. • Schools are social and economic anchors to rural communities – consolidation can be painful.• Population loss can be a vicious downward spiral.• The impacts are being seen in differences between metro & nonmetro areas on many socio-economic variables.• Results from our analysis challenge findings from some prior research.• Nebraska, while a typical plains state, seems to be often having extreme changes in comparison to other states.• How do we best maximize our successes and address our challenges? How can data best guide decision making?Center for Public Affairs Research 14THE DEMOGRAPHIC FOUNDATION OF EDUCATION IN THE GREAT PLAINSDavid Drozd, Robert Blair, Jerome DeichertCenter for Public Affairs Research, UNOwww.unomaha.edu/cpar www.facebook.com/unocparSchool Consolidation in the Great Plains2013 Symposium, April 6 – Kearney, NECenter for Public Affairs Research

The Demographic Foundation of Education in the Great Plains

https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&amp;context=cparpresentations

The Demographic Foundation of Education in the Great Plains

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

The University of Nebraska, Omaha