One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex
morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms,
cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection
occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent
heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in
such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host
morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR
(susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder
expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of
epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic
outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for
an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an
example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells).
Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity
have been considered in order to analyse separately the role of shape
complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion
threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be
used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure