At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll employment for the previous month. This estimate of jobs gained or lost over the month is closely watched by policymakers and those who work in financial markets and the media. When the estimate is revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes perceive a very different picture of the job market than what was initially reported. Data users frequently ask why the number was revised. The short answer is, the revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the initial release— information that makes the revised estimate more accurate.
This BEYOND THE NUMBERS article explains the data collection process that BLS conducts every month to produce the estimate of U.S. employment. The article also should help clarify why BLS releases revisions to the initial estimate so that users will understand the change, if any, in the data

Hatch Maxfield, Julie

Nardone, Thomas

Robertson, Kenneth

English

DigitalCommons@ILR

Cornell University ILR School 
DigitalCommons@ILR 
Federal Publications Key Workplace Documents 
7-2013 
Why Are There Revisions to the Jobs Numbers? 
Thomas Nardone 
Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Kenneth Robertson 
Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Julie Hatch Maxfield 
Bureau of Labor Statistics 
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Why Are There Revisions to the Jobs Numbers? 
Abstract 
At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll 
employment for the previous month. This estimate of jobs gained or lost over the month is closely 
watched by policymakers and those who work in financial markets and the media. When the estimate is 
revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes perceive a very different picture of the job 
market than what was initially reported. Data users frequently ask why the number was revised. The short 
answer is, the revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the 
initial release— information that makes the revised estimate more accurate. 
This BEYOND THE NUMBERS article explains the data collection process that BLS conducts every month 
to produce the estimate of U.S. employment. The article also should help clarify why BLS releases 
revisions to the initial estimate so that users will understand the change, if any, in the data. 
Keywords 
payroll employment, data collection, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS 
Comments 
Suggested Citation 
Nardone, T., Robertson, K., & Hatch Maxfield, J. (2013). Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers? 
Beyond the Numbers (Vol. 2, No. 17). Washington, DC: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
This article is available at DigitalCommons@ILR: https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/1161 
E M P L O Y M E N T  A N D  U N E M P L O Y M E N T
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
JULY 2013 • VOLUME 2 / NUMBER 17
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS | JULY 2013 1 www.bls.gov 
Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers?
Authors: Thomas Nardone, Kenneth Robertson, and Julie Hatch Maxfield
At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll employment for the previous month.1 This estimate of jobs gained or 
lost over the month is closely watched by policymakers and those 
who work in financial markets and the media. When the estimate 
is revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes 
perceive a very different picture of the job market than what was 
initially reported.2 Data users frequently ask why the number was 
revised. The short answer is, the revised estimate includes additional 
information that was not available at the time of the initial release—
information that makes the revised estimate more accurate. 
This BEYOND THE NUMBERS article explains the data 
collection process that BLS conducts every month to produce the 
estimate of U.S. employment. The article also should help clarify 
why BLS releases revisions to the initial estimate so that users will 
understand the change, if any, in the data.
Related articles 
More BLS articles and information about 
payroll employment are available at the 
following links: 
 y “Slow and steady: payroll 
employment grew moderately 
in 2012,” Monthly Labor Review, 
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/03/ 
art2full.pdf
 y Current Employment 
Statistics Highlights, 
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ 
ceshighlights.pdf
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS | JULY 2013 2 www.bls.gov 
BEYOND THE NUMBERS E M P L O Y M E N T  A N D  U N E M P L O Y M E N T
Ready or not?
The estimate of employment change is based on a 
monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites, selected 
to represent the millions of businesses throughout the 
country. (For simplicity, we will refer to worksites as 
businesses even though many individual businesses 
provide data for multiple worksites.) In the survey sample, 
businesses report the total number of people who worked 
or received pay during the pay period that includes the 
12th of the month. Although BLS uses a variety of methods 
to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many 
businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report 
by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In 
2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time 
of the initial release was 73.1 percent. 
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based 
on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have 
reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the 
employment situation at businesses that had reported is 
representative of the situation at those that had not yet 
reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports 
from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second 
and then a third estimate for the month. With each 
subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their 
information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the 
time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. 
(See chart 1.)
Differences between the initial and revised estimates 
generally indicate that the employment change that 
occurred at the businesses that had not initially reported 
Note: The second releases of BLS data are not shown because the second and third release rates are usually very similar. A complete listing of 
CES registry receipts by release is available at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesregrec.htm.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Chart 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
3rd release
1st release
Percentage of monthly employment reports received from businesses, by closing date of 
the first and third releases of BLS data, January 2008 – December 2012
In percent
Note: The second releases of BLS data are not shown because the second and third release rates are usually very similar. A 
complete list ng of CES registry rec ip s by release is available here: http://www.bls gov/web/empsit/cesregrec.htm.
Dec-12
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS | JULY 2013 3 www.bls.gov 
BEYOND THE NUMBERS E M P L O Y M E N T  A N D  U N E M P L O Y M E N T
was different than the change that occurred at the 
businesses that had initially reported. For example, if less 
employment growth occurred among those who had 
not reported at the time of the first estimate, the initial 
estimate would be revised down. If more growth occurred 
among the late responders, the initial estimate would be 
revised up. The estimation process is more complicated 
than this simple explanation, however; the key thing for 
users to remember is that the revised estimates represent 
a more complete and therefore more accurate picture of 
developments in the job market.
A quick look at employment
So why doesn’t BLS wait until it has all the reports to make the 
estimate and avoid revisions? Users of the data are intensely 
interested in the earliest possible read on labor market 
developments, and experience suggests that the initial 
estimate is generally very good. For example, in 2012, the 
average monthly employment change using the first estimate 
would have been +142,000, compared with a monthly 
average change of +165,000 using the third estimate. (See 
table 1.) Nevertheless, it is true that in some months, revisions 
are large enough that they change the users’ perspectives 
on the current state of the economy. In November 2012, for 
example, the initial estimate of over-the-month change was 
+146,000, while the third estimate was +247,000.
In summary, data users should remember that the initial 
estimates of payroll employment are a preliminary look 
at what occurred in each month. It is the quick but lower-
resolution snapshot of what went on in the job market 
for a particular month. Because the revised estimates 
are based on more complete data, they create a higher 
resolution picture—and occasionally the revised data 
produce a different picture altogether. n 
Revisions between over-the-month estimates in nonfarm payroll employment, 2012
Month Year
Seasonally adjusted
Over-the-month change Revision in over-the-month change
1st release 2nd release 3rd release 2nd - 1st 3rd - 2nd 3rd - 1st
January 2012 243 284 275 41 -9 32
February 2012 227 240 259 13 19 32
March 2012 120 154 143 34 -11 23
April 2012 115 77 68 -38 -9 -47
May 2012 69 77 87 8 10 18
June 2012 80 64 45 -16 -19 -35
July 2012 163 141 181 -22 40 18
August 2012 96 142 192 46 50 96
September 2012 114 148 132 34 -16 18
October 2012 171 138 137 -33 -1 -34
November 2012 146 161 247 15 86 101
December 2012 155 196 219 41 23 64
Mean revision 2012 … … … 10 14 24
Mean absolute revision 2012 … … … 28 24 43
Note: A full set of revision information is available at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Table 1
BEYOND THE NUMBERS E M P L O Y M E N T  A N D  U N E M P L O Y M E N T
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS | JULY 2013 4 www.bls.gov 
Upcoming articles
 y A look at paid leave in private industry over the 
past 20 years
 y Long-term unemployment over men’s careers 
 y Fatal work injuries by the numbers
Visit our online archives to access past publications at
http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/home.htm.
Notes
1. Payroll employment from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program excludes proprietors, the unincorporated self-
employed, unpaid volunteer or family employees, farm employees, and domestic employees. Salaried officers of corporations 
are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the 
Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense 
Intelligence Agency also are excluded.  CES is a monthly survey of about 145,000 businesses and government agencies, 
representing approximately 557,000 individual worksites. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, 
see “Technical notes to establishment survey data,” http://www.bls.gov/ces/#technical. To access CES data, see “Current 
Employment Statistics–CES (national),” http://www.bls.gov/ces.
2. Second preliminary estimates for a reference month are published the month following the initial release, and final sample-
based estimates are published 2 months after the initial release.
This BEYOND THE NUMBERS article was prepared by 
Thomas Nardone, Kenneth Robertson, and Julie Hatch 
Maxfield. Email: cesinfo@bls.gov. Telephone: (202) 691-6555.
Information in this article will be made available to 
sensory-impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 
(202) 691-5200. Federal Relay Service: 1 (800) 877-8339. 
This article is in the public domain and may be reproduced 
without permission.
Suggested citation: 
Tom Nardone, Kenneth Robertson, and Julie Hatch 
Maxfield, “Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers?,” 
Beyond the Numbers: Employment & Unemployment, 
vol. 2, no. 17 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2013), 
http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/why- 
are-there-revisions-to-the-jobs-numbers.htm.


Why Are There Revisions to the Jobs Numbers?

At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll employment for the previous month. This estimate of jobs gained or lost over the month is closely watched by policymakers and those who work in financial markets and the media. When the estimate is revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes perceive a very different picture of the job market than what was initially reported. Data users frequently ask why the number was revised. The short answer is, the revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the initial release— information that makes the revised estimate more accurate. This BEYOND THE NUMBERS article explains the data collection process that BLS conducts every month to produce the estimate of U.S. employment. The article also should help clarify why BLS releases revisions to the initial estimate so that users will understand the change, if any, in the data.BLS_BTN_Why_are_there_revisions_to_the_jobs_numbers.pdf: 263 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

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Why Are There Revisions to the Jobs Numbers?

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