Carter, A. C.

Giardini, G. I.

English

Northwestern University Illinois, School of Law: Scholarly Commons

Journal of Criminal Law and CriminologyVolume 26Issue 4 November-December Article 4Winter 1935Reliability of Psychological Prognosis in theWestern Penitentiary of PennsylvaniaA. C. CarterG. I. GiardiniFollow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclcPart of the Criminal Law Commons, Criminology Commons, and the Criminology and CriminalJustice CommonsThis Article is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted forinclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons.Recommended CitationA. C. Carter, G. I. Giardini, Reliability of Psychological Prognosis in the Western Penitentiary of Pennsylvania, 26 Am. Inst. Crim. L. &Criminology 556 (1935-1936)RELIABILITY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL PROGNOSISIN THE WESTERN PENITENTIARYOF PENNSYLVANIAA. C. CARTER AND G. I. GIARDINI'The purpose of this study is to check on the reliability of theprognoses made by the Psychology Department of the Western Peni-tentiary, at Pittsburgh, Pa., relative to the possibility or probabilityof prisoners making a readjustment upon release.The predictions of the psychologist were based on fairly com-plete case histories comprising psychometric tests, a psycho-neuroticinventory, a history of previous crimes, and a social and economichistory checked by investigation. The predictions were comparedwith the reports of the State Parole Bureau,2 relative to the actualconduct of the subjects of the study while on parole.The study includes those cases that were released on parole fromNovember 1, 1930, to November 1, 1931. The State Bureau of Parolewas established in the Fall of 1930. Cases released after November 1,1931, were not included in order not to shorten unduly the periodduring which any one case had been on parole. The study was begunin February of 1933. Therefore, all the subjects of the study hadbeen out on parole, or had the opportunity of being out, for at least15 months by the time this study was initiated.Only those cases were included that had been checked by out-side investigation before release. From November 1, 1930 to Novem-ber 1, 1931, there were 422 men released on parole. Many of thesehad come to prison before 1925, when outside investigations were be-gun. Hence, only 149 of them had been investigated. There wereno other known selective factors for investigation. It is likely, there-fore, that this small sample is fairly representative. Of the 149 cases,however, 24 had to be discarded because of incomplete investigationand five because of incomplete parole data. This left 120 cases forinclusion in our study.'Mrs. Armenter Cheatham Carter undertook the study as a term paper in acourse in Criminal Psychology, given by G. I. Giardini at the University ofPittsburgh. Mrs. Carter compiled the data while Mr. Giardini supervised thework and revised the paper for publication. Mr. Giardini is psychologist atthe Western Penitentiary.2The parole data were obtained with the cooperation of Mr. W. T. Broecker,Senior Field Agent, District No. 2, State Bureau of Parole.[556]PSYCHOLOGICAL PROGNOSIS 557The first step after the selection of the cases was to study thepsychological prognoses generally and to attempt to classify them.The following schedule was derived empirically:Categories of Psychological PrognosesA. Safe. Those individuals who will be able to adjust themselvesupon release and assume their ordinary duties without supervision.B. Fair. Those individuals who will adjust themselves upon releaseand assume their ordinary duties with a minimum amount of supervision.C. Rigid Supervision. Those who will need careful superiision en-forced rather rigidly, but with this supervision will adjust themselves tooutside environment.D. Doubtful. Those individuals who in spite of supervision may re-tain their old habits and frequent old habitats and who are not likely. toreadjust after their release.E. Hopeless. Cases where no readjustment can be expected due tohabituation to crime, feeblemindedness, etc. Among these are those pris-oners who should be institutionalized.A study was then made of the parole reports without referenceto any particular case, but merely with the thought of arriving at aclassification of parole status comparable with the classification ofpsychological prognoses. The following schedule was finally adopted:Schedule of Parole StatusI. Safe. Those individuals who would adjust without supervision.Also, those reporting regularly and giving no trouble.II. Fair. Those individuals who need only the routine supervision.Those reporting regularly and troublesome only occasionally and for minorreasons.III. Rigid Supervision. Those individuals who without rigid super-vision may become very troublesome, but who adjust with the rigid super-vision.IV. Doubtful. Those who because of circumstances may be seriousparole violators once but may adjust adequately upon second release orif given another chance.V. Hopeless. Violators, whether captured or uncaptured and thosewho because of habituation to crime, feeblemindedness, drink habit, etc.,should be institutionalized. Also, those who never report after release.The cases were then classified first under one, then under theother of these two schedules to see the frequency and the degree inwhich the predictions made in the psychological prognoses were cor-roborated by reports on the actual conduct of the men while onparole.558 CARTER AND GIARDINIResultsThe results are briefly presented in the following table:TABLE IDISTRIBUTION OF CASES AS PER PSYCHOLOGICAL PROGNOSES AND PAROLE STATUSPsychological Prognosis A. Safe.Number of cases .......................................... 10Distribution on Parole Schedule-I. Safe ............................................ 9II. Fair ............................................ 1III. Rigid ........................................... 0IV. Doubtful ........................................ 0V. Hopeless ........................................ 0Psychological Prognosis B. Fair.Number of cases ......................................... 25Distribution on Parole Schedule-I. Safe ............................................ 9II. Fair ............................................ 12III. Rigid ........................................... 2IV. Doubtful ........................................ 0V. Hopeless ........................................ 2Psychological Prognosis C. Rigid.Number of cases .......................................... 31Distribution on Parole Schedule--I. Safe ............................................ 2II. Fair ............................................ 14III. Rigid ........................................... 10IV. Doubtful ........................................ 0V. Hopeless ....... ............................ 5Psychological Prognosis D. Doubtful.Number of cases .......................................... 33Distribution on Parole Schedule-I. Safe ............................................ 1II. Fair ............................................ 9III. Rigid ........................................... 6IV. Doubtful ........................................ 3V. Hopeless ........................................ 14Psychological Prognosis E. Hopeless.Number of cases .......................................... 21Distribution on Parole Schedule-I. Safe ............................................ 0II. Fair ............................................ 3PSYCHOLOGICAL PROGNOSIS 559III. Rigid ........................................... 6IV. Doubtful ........................................ 1V. Hopeless ........................................ 11The above data show that in 45 cases out of 120, or in 37.5 percent, the predictions of the psychologist were corroborated by theparole reports. Forty-seven other cases, or 39.2 per cent of them,fall in the parole class adjacent to the one predicted by the psy-chologists. In other words, 76.7 per cent of the cases in the paroleschedule are not more than one class removed from that predicted inthe psychological prognoses. Twenty-eight cases, or 23.3 per cent,deviate widely from the predictions of the psychology department.To reach a more definite measure of the reliability of the psy-chological prognoses, the data were submitted to a correlation tech-nique. Pearson's corrective formula for broad grouping was used.The results are shown in Table IT.TABLE IIScATER DIAGRAM OF PAROLE STATUS AGAINST PROGNOSIS CATEGORIESParole StatusPrognosis V IV III II I TotalA .................. .. .. 1 9 10B .............. 2 .. 2 12 9 25C ................ 5 .. 10 14 2 31D ................ 14 3 6 9 1 33E ................ 11 1 6 3 .. 21Total ........ 32 4 24 39 21 120Correlation ratio: .713.Standard error: .045.Probable error: .030.The relatively uneven distribution of total cases -under ParoleStatus is not easily explained away. Undoubtedly, the much largernumber of "hopeless" cases as compared with "doubtful" cases, ispartly due to the fact that a sizeable proportion of the men do notreport to the parole officer at all upon release, and are, therefore,immediately called failures. But it is not likely that this accountsfor the discrepancy altogether. It may be that parole status IV wasnot defined adequately; or it may be that after the men have beenout on parole for 15 months the "doubtful" cases tend to disappear,gravitating toward more definite classes. Even under most favorable3The correlation was worked out by Mr. W. R. Grove, assistant psychologistat the Western Penitentiary.560 CARTER AND GIARDINIcircumstances, in the comparison of variates of the nature involvedin this study, we cannot regard the corresponding classes as equiva-lent, point for point.SummaryNo definite conclusion can be drawn from this preliminary studyof the reliability of psychological prognoses, first, because of thesmall number of subjects used, and secondly, because the men had beenout on parole, at the most, twenty-seven months. However, the datasuggest that there is probably a high degree of reliability in the prog-noses made by the Psychology Department of the Western Peniten-tiary of Pennsylvania relative to the probable conduct of prisonersupon release on parole.

Reliability of Psychological Prognosis in the Western Penitentiary of Pennsylvania

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Reliability of Psychological Prognosis in the Western Penitentiary of Pennsylvania

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