Childs, Randy

Hammond, George

English

The Research Repository @ WVU (West Virginia University)

1WV Business & Economic Review 1 April 2005North Central Region and Morgantown MSAOutlook 2005: Executive Summaryby George W. Hammond, Ph.D.NOTE TO OUR READERS:The West Virginia Business and Economic Review is published by theWVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Subscribers arenotified by email when a new issue is posted on the Bureau website.We hope you find our format easy to access and read. Please let usknow if you see ways to improve it. You can email our editor at:connie.banta@mail.wvu.eduVolume 11 •  April  2005 West Virginia University College of Business and EconomicsCONTENTSN. Central & Morgantown MSA Outlook .......... 1Population Report ............................................. 4In March 2005, the Bureau of Business and EconomicResearch released forecasts for the North Central Regionand the Morgantown MSA. The full forecast publication isavailable on the BBER website at www.bber.wvu.edu.The North Central Region, as defined here, is composed ofthe Clarksburg micropolitan area, the Fairmont micropolitanarea, and the Morgantown MSA. Figure 1 contains the basiceconomic/demographic facts for the region and its componentlabor market areas.Overall, the region has far outpaced state economic growthsince 2000. Indeed, the region added jobs at an average an-nual rate of 1.3 percent during the 2000-2004 period, in con-trast to net job losses for the state and the nation. The regionadded jobs in most sectors during the period, but the fastestgrowth was concentrated in professional and business services(call centers and high-tech), construction, health care, and lei-sure and hospitality. The region has posted positive populationgrowth during the 2000-2003 period, outpacing state gains, butfalling well short of the national average. In addition, per capitapersonal income growth in the region has exceeded state andnational gains during the last five years, reflecting strong jobgrowth. Finally, the region’s unemployment rate averaged 4.2percent in 2004, well below the state (5.2 percent) and national(5.5 percent) averages.Within the region, the fastest growth lately has come in theMorgantown MSA, with job growth in the combined Monongaliaand Preston County area averaging 2.2 percent per year since2000. The strongest job gains in the MSA came in professionalWV Business & Economic Review 2 April  2005Figure 1North Central Regionand business services, construction, government, and health care. In addition, the MSAhas registered very strong population gains since 2000, with the MSA growth rate (0.8percent per year) far exceeding the state rate of 0.1 percent and coming close to thenational rate of 1.0 percent. The MSA also experienced the fastest per capita incomegrowth (5.6 percent per year) during the last five years and the lowest unemploymentrate (3.5 percent) in 2004 of any of the labor markets in the North Central Region.The national forecast, through 2009, calls for continued steady national growth. Thissets the stage for strong growth in the region. Job growth is forecast to accelerate from1.3 percent per year during the 2000-2004 period to 1.6 percent per year during the fore-cast. All major sectors are forecast to add jobs during the next five years, with the stron-gest job growth expected to come in construction, professional and business services,and health care, as Figure 2 shows. This strong job growth, which exceeds expectedstate and national growth, generates continued population and per capita personal in-come growth, while driving the region’s unemployment rate down from 4.2 percent in2004 to 3.1 percent by 2009.The forecast calls for the Morgantown MSA to continue its strong growth perfor-mance, far exceeding expected state and national job growth. As Figure 3 shows, MSAjob growth is forecast to average 2.2 percent per year, with the strongest job growth ex-pected in construction, professional and business services, and health care, although allmajor sectors are expected to add jobs. This job growth contributes to strong populationand income growth, as well as to a declining unemployment rate.Overall, the North Central Region is well positioned to continue to outperform thestate and in some cases the nation. The region as a whole, and the Morgantown MSA inparticular, boast a significant concentration of highly educated residents. This will be aFairmont MicropolitanMarion County2002 Per Capita Personal Income:  $24,2582003e Population:  56,4842004 Unemployment Rate: 5.3%Morgantown MSAMonongalia and Preston County2002 Per Capita Personal Income:  $24,576 2003e Population:  114,0752004 Unemployment Rate: 3.5%  Morgantown MSAFairmont MicropolitanClarksburg MicropolitanPCPI* Population Unemp. Rt.Region 2002($) 2003e 2004(%)North Central Region 24,292 4.2Morgantown MSA 24,576 3.5Clarksburg Micropolitan 23,963 4.5Fairmont Micropolitan 24,258 5.3West Virginia 23,794 5.3U.S. 30,906262,209114,07591,65056,4841,811,440290,788,976 5.5*PCPI is Per Capita Personal Income3WV Business & Economic Review 3 April 2005key component of future economic growth, particularly with respect to gains in high-pay-ing service sector jobs. The region and the MSA also continue to invest in productiveinfrastructure, with expansions and renovations planned for the region’s retail, education,health care and medical research, high-tech, and tourism sectors. Indeed, the value ofconstruction starts in the region has risen from $210 million in 2002 to $268 million in2004, according to FW Dodge. These investments set the stage for continued growthregionally and in the MSA.Figure 2North Central RegionAnnual Job Growth: History and Forecast-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%TotalNat. Res., & Min.ConstructionManufacturingTrade, Trans., and UtilitiesInformationFinancial ActivitesProf. and Business ServicesEduc. and Health ServicesLeisure and HospitalityOther ServicesGovernment2000-20042004-2009Figure 3Morgantown MSAAnnual Job Growth: History and Forecast-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%TotalNat. Res., & Min.ConstructionManufacturingTrade, Trans., and UtilitiesInformationFinancial ActivitesProf. and Business ServicesEduc. and Health ServicesLeisure and HospitalityOther ServicesGovernment2000-20042004-2009WV Business & Economic Review 4 April  2005Eastern Panhandle Continues toDominate West Virginia’sPopulation Gains in 2004by Randy Childs, EconomistAs Table 1 indicates, the Eastern Panhandle gained 5,411 residents from July 1, 2003to July 1, 2004, according to the latest county-level population estimates released by theU.S. Census Bureau. Twenty-seven of West Virginia’s 55 counties gained population dur-ing the year. The 27 counties gained 8,786 residents. There were 5,172 of these residentsin Berkeley and Jefferson counties, the two fastest growing counties in the state. PutnamCounty ranked third in residents gained, attracting 803 net new residents. Hampshire,Jackson, Morgan, Randolph, Upshur, Harrison, and Monongalia counties rounded out thetop ten counties with population increases.The 28 counties that lost residents from 2003 to 2004 lost a total of 4,872 net resi-dents. Overall the state added 3,914 net residents during the year. The following mapshows which counties gained or lost population during the year. Population losses weremost evident in the southern coal fields and the Northern Panhandle along with some ofthe counties with the states largest cities (Charleston, Parkersburg, Huntington, Weirton,and Wheeling).Figure 1Population ChangeJuly 1, 2003 to July 1, 2004Change in Population(615) – (200)(199) – 01 - 200201 – 3,923JEFFERSONHANCOCKCALHOUNHARRISONMARIONTYLERRITCHIEUPSHURLEWISOHIOBARBOURBROOKEGRANTHARDYJACKSONMARSHALLMINERALMONONGALIAPENDLETONTAYLORWAYNEWIRTWOODWYOMINGPLEASANTSNICHOLASFAYETTEGREENBRIERMONROEWETZELPRESTONROANE BRAXTONCLAYLINCOLNRALEIGHLOGANMCDOWELLBOONEMINGOSUMMERSPOCAHONTASRANDOLPHHAMPSHIREMORGANBERKELEYDODDRIDGECABELLPUTNAMMASONTUCKERKANAWHAGILMERMERCERWEBSTER5WV Business & Economic Review 5 April 2005Table 1Annual Estimates of Population Change for Counties of West Virginia and County Rankings:July 1, 2003 to July 1, 2004West Virginia 1,815,354 1,811,440 3,914 0.2 (X) (X) (X) (X)Barbour 15,476 15,602 -126 -0.8 37 36 41 51Berkeley 89,362 85,439 3,923 4.6 3 4 1 1Boone 25,721 25,745 -24 -0.1 26 26 30 29Braxton 14,950 14,837 113 0.8 39 39 13 13Brooke 24,785 24,983 -198 -0.8 27 28 46 49Cabell 94,801 95,110 -309 -0.3 2 2 52 37Calhoun 7,415 7,356 59 0.8 52 52 20 12Clay 10,424 10,329 95 0.9 45 45 16 8Doddridge 7,418 7,468 -50 -0.7 51 50 33 44Fayette 47,049 47,351 -302 -0.6 12 11 51 43Gilmer 6,982 7,032 -50 -0.7 54 54 33 45Grant 11,537 11,442 95 0.8 43 43 16 10Greenbrier 34,886 34,778 108 0.3 16 17 14 19Hampshire 21,542 21,272 270 1.3 32 32 4 5Hancock 31,507 31,808 -301 -0.9 18 18 50 52Hardy 13,209 13,064 145 1.1 42 42 11 6Harrison 68,303 68,093 210 0.3 7 7 9 20Jackson 28,477 28,238 239 0.8 21 21 5 9Jefferson 47,663 46,414 1,249 2.7 11 12 2 2Kanawha 195,218 195,823 -605 -0.3 1 1 54 36Lewis 17,132 17,082 50 0.3 33 34 21 22Lincoln 22,564 22,423 141 0.6 31 31 12 16Logan 36,502 36,769 -267 -0.7 15 15 49 46Marion 56,453 56,512 -59 -0.1 9 9 35 32Marshall 34,722 34,916 -194 -0.6 17 16 45 41Mason 25,941 26,091 -150 -0.6 25 25 43 42McDowell 24,726 25,341 -615 -2.4 28 27 55 55Mercer 62,070 62,134 -64 -0.1 8 8 36 31Mineral 27,145 27,143 2 0.0 23 23 27 27Mingo 27,389 27,610 -221 -0.8 22 22 47 50Monongalia 83,918 83,734 184 0.2 5 5 10 23Monroe 13,568 13,470 98 0.7 41 41 15 15Morgan 15,810 15,571 239 1.5 36 37 5 3Nicholas 26,276 26,289 -13 0.0 24 24 28 28Ohio 45,410 45,659 -249 -0.5 13 13 48 40Pendleton 7,897 7,910 -13 -0.2 49 49 28 33Pleasants 7,441 7,411 30 0.4 50 51 25 18Pocahontas 8,995 8,991 4 0.0 48 48 26 26Preston 29,856 29,768 88 0.3 19 19 18 21Putnam 53,836 53,033 803 1.5 10 10 3 4Raleigh 79,175 79,252 -77 -0.1 6 6 39 30Randolph 28,495 28,261 234 0.8 20 20 7 11Ritchie 10,486 10,513 -27 -0.3 44 44 31 35Roane 15,359 15,392 -33 -0.2 38 38 32 34Summers 13,809 13,958 -149 -1.1 40 40 42 53Taylor 16,202 16,171 31 0.2 35 35 23 24Tucker 7,046 7,160 -114 -1.6 53 53 40 54Tyler 9,365 9,438 -73 -0.8 47 47 38 48Upshur 23,996 23,770 226 1.0 30 30 8 7Wayne 42,515 42,468 47 0.1 14 14 22 25Webster 9,849 9,777 72 0.7 46 46 19 14Wetzel 17,048 17,117 -69 -0.4 34 33 37 39Wirt 5,835 5,804 31 0.5 55 55 23 17Wood 87,100 87,430 -330 -0.4 4 3 53 38Wyoming 24,698 24,888 -190 -0.8 29 29 44 47Geographic AreaPopulation Estimates Change, 2003 to 2004 Change, 2003 to 2004State Ranking of CountiesPopulation EstimatesJuly 1, 2004 July 1, 2003 July 1, 2004July 1, 2003 NumberNumber Percent PercentWest Virginia University is governed by the WVU Board of  Advisors and the WestVirginia Higher Education Policy Commission.West Virginia University is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Institution.©2005 West Virginia University Research CorporationBBER Research StaffChristian Brooks, undergraduate research assistantRandy Childs, economistChristiadi, economistMark Fletcher, undergraduate research assistantGeorge Hammond, research assistant professorPatrick Mann, research associate and professor of  economicsKwasi Osei-Yeboah, graduate research assistantJustin Ross, graduate research assistantKevin Speaker, undergraduate research assistantMehmet S. Tosun, research assistant professorClaudia Williamson, graduate research assistantPavel A. Yakovlev, graduate research assistantThe West Virginia Business & Economic Review is published by the Bureau of  Business andEconomic Research, College of  Business and Economics, West Virginia University,P.O. Box 6025, Morgantown, WV  26506-6025PHONE (304)293-7831•FAX(304)293-7061EMAIL:  connie.banta@mail.wvu.eduWEBSITE: www.bber.wvu.eduDean ........................................................ Jay H. CoatsAssociate Dean for Research and Outreach andBBER Director ....................................... Tom S. WittEditor .................................................... Connie Banta

West Virginia Business & Economic Review Vol. 11 No. 2

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West Virginia Business & Economic Review Vol. 11 No. 2

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