Childs, Lauren

Greischar, Megan

Krueger, Anthony Raymond

Pak, Damie

English

VCU Scholars Compass

Virginia Commonwealth University VCU Scholars Compass Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference 2022 May 18th, 5:00 PM - 7:00 PM Evaluating the practical identifiability of a malaria model to assess conversion to transmissible stages Anthony Raymond Krueger Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, anthonyrk@vt.edu Damie Pak Cornell University, dp495@cornell.edu Megan Greischar Cornell University, megan.greischar@cornell.edu See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm  Part of the Parasitology Commons, and the Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm/2022/wed/38 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Dept. of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics at VCU Scholars Compass. It has been accepted for inclusion in Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference by an authorized administrator of VCU Scholars Compass. For more information, please contact libcompass@vcu.edu. Presenter Information Anthony Raymond Krueger, Damie Pak, Megan Greischar, and Lauren Childs This event is available at VCU Scholars Compass: https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm/2022/wed/38 Plasmodium falciparum is the predominant malaria species that affects humans. This parasite proliferates in the blood stream through asexual reproduction. In each replication cycle, a proportion of these asexual parasites commit to produce gametocytes, the transmissible form, which can be ingested by a mosquito and transferred to another human host. This proportion – “the conversion rate” – is critical to understanding transmission and therefore control of malaria. In 2001, Eichner et al. developed a deterministic model describing the asexual and gametocyte populations of P. falciparum. By fitting this model to data on over 100 individual patient infections, Eichner et al. determined a range of possible gametocyte conversion rates. In particular, the average conversion rate has been used extensively in modeling studies over the past two decades. Here, we examine the practical identifiability of this model in order to assess the potential range of gametocyte as we consider the variability of the conversion rates and longevity. Focusing on a well-documented patient, we fit the parameters including the gametocyte conversion rate and produce a simulated gametocyte trajectory. Adding varying degrees of noise to this simulated trajectory and fitting to attempt to recover our parameters, we found that none of the model parameters are practically identifiable. Thus, conclusions on gametocyte conversion and longevity should be reassessed predicting transmission and effectiveness of interventions.    

Evaluating the practical identifiability of a malaria model to assess conversion to transmissible stages

https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1453&context=bamm

Evaluating the practical identifiability of a malaria model to assess conversion to transmissible stages

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