Otunuga, Olusegun Michael

English

VCU Scholars Compass

Virginia Commonwealth University VCU Scholars Compass Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference 2022 May 19th, 9:30 AM - 10:00 AM Multi-strain epidemic model with infected vaccinated and re-infected recovered population: application to COVID-19 pandemic Olusegun Michael Otunuga Augusta University, ootunuga@augusta.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm  Part of the Disease Modeling Commons, Life Sciences Commons, and the Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/bamm/2022/thur/3 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Dept. of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics at VCU Scholars Compass. It has been accepted for inclusion in Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference by an authorized administrator of VCU Scholars Compass. For more information, please contact libcompass@vcu.edu. Title: Multi-strain epidemic model with infected vaccinated and re-infected recovered population:application to COVID-19 pandemic.In this work, an innovative multi-strain S VEIR epidemic model is developed for the study of the spreadof a multi-strain infectious disease in a population infected by mutations of the disease. The population isassumed to be completely susceptible to n different variants of the disease, and those who are vaccinatedand recovered from a specific strain k (k ≤ n) are immune to previous and present strains j = 1, 2, · · · , k, butcan still be infected by newer emerging strains j = k + 1, k + 2, · · · , n. The model is designed to simulate theemergence and dissemination of viral strains. A bound for the herd immunity threshold is calculated. Also,2n different equilibrium points are calculated and the conditions for existence, local, and global stabilityof these equilibrium points investigated. The question as to whether it is possible for the population tohave an endemic with more than one strain of the virus is answered by studying the stability analysis ofall equilibrium points that are not disease-free equilibrium point. The effect of vaccines on the populationis also analyzed. The validity of the work done is verified through numerical simulations by applying theproposed model and strategy to analyze the multi-strains of the COVID-19 virus in the United State.

Multi-strain epidemic model with infected vaccinated and re-infected recovered population: application to COVID-19 pandemic

https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1419&context=bamm

Multi-strain epidemic model with infected vaccinated and re-infected recovered population: application to COVID-19 pandemic

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