We illustrate the crucial role played by decoherence (consistency of quantum
histories) in extracting consistent quantum probabilities for alternative
histories in quantum cosmology. Specifically, within a Wheeler-DeWitt
quantization of a flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological model sourced
with a free massless scalar field, we calculate the probability that the
univese is singular in the sense that it assumes zero volume. Classical
solutions of this model are a disjoint set of expanding and contracting
singular branches. A naive assessment of the behavior of quantum states which
are superpositions of expanding and contracting universes may suggest that a
"quantum bounce" is possible i.e. that the wave function of the universe may
remain peaked on a non-singular classical solution throughout its history.
However, a more careful consistent histories analysis shows that for arbitrary
states in the physical Hilbert space the probability of this Wheeler-DeWitt
quantum universe encountering the big bang/crunch singularity is equal to
unity. A quantum Wheeler-DeWitt universe is inevitably singular, and a "quantum
bounce" is thus not possible in these models.Comment: To appear in Foundations of Physics special issue on quantum
foundation