Eutrophication in peel inlet—III. A model for the nitrogen scenario and a retrospective look at the preliminary analysis

Abstract

In this third paper of a series, the structure and results from an a priori speculative simulation model of the nitrogen dynamics of eutrophic Peel Inlet are described. This stimulation exercise indicated that nitrogen limitation of Cladophora growth rarely occurred. The results of this simulation exercise, and those of the earlier study of the phosphorus scenario, are then compared with field and laboratory data collected subsequently. This comparison indicates that the preliminary speculative simulation technique is a powerful method for the definition of the critical uncertainties in the knowledge of an environmental system, and therefore for the direction and planning of future research. Furthermore, the simulations correctly identified phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, as the major limiting nutrient for macroalgal growth in Peel Inlet. In this third paper of a series, the structure of and results from an a priori speculative simulation model of the nitrogen dynamics of eutrophic Peel Inlet are described. This simulation exercise indicated that nitrogen limitation of Cladophora growth rarely occurred. The results of this simulation exercise, and those of the earlier study of the phosphorus scenario, are then compared with field and laboratory data collected subsequently. This comparison indicates that the preliminary speculative simulation technique is a powerful method for the definition of the critical uncertainties in the knowledge of an environmental system, and therefore for the direction and planning of future research. Furthermore, the simulations correctly identified phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, as the major limiting nutrient for macroalgal growth in Peel Inlet