University of Maribor, Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Abstract
Background and Purpose: Currently, the idea of households - prosumers is broadly discussed in public governments, mainly in connection with both the energy security issues and the environmental issues. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to present new agent model of household - prosumer and to compare two scenarios – “off grid household” and “on grid household”. The additional goal is to evaluate the impact of public support of solar electricity on the economic efficiency of household – prosumer projects (systems).
Design/Methodology/Approach: The model is structured as a micro-level agent model, representing one household – prosumer. The model has the following general characteristics: one household with own electricity generation (photovoltaic panels), battery and in case of “on grid household” also connection to the grid. The main goal of the agent is to cover electricity consumption in household with minimal costs. The agent model of prosumer is tested and validated, using the empirical data.
Results: The highest level of subsidy has significant impact on the economic indicators of selected scenarios. It causes lower investment costs at the beginning of the project and consequently shorter payback period (3-4 years earlier), positive cumulative cash flow, net present value and IRR in earlier period (approximately 5-10 years earlier, depending on the scenario).
Conclusion: We can recommend to the government to continue with current system of subsidies, since it contributes to better economic indicators of particular solar electricity projects. On the other hand, the level of subsidy should be at least the same as in current year 2017, for the purposes of representing the significant part of the investment costs. Low level of subsidy has negligible impact on the economic indicators of households – prosumers projects. The developed agent model is suitable for the evaluation of economic impact of public support on households – prosumers.Ozadje in namen: Pri razpravah v različnih državnih službah se pogosto pojavi o ideja gospodinjstvih – proizvajalcih in obenem porabnikih energije, predvsem v povezavi z vprašanji energetske varnosti in okoljskimi vprašanji. Zato je glavni cilj tega prispevka predstaviti nov model (programskega) agenta gospodinjstva - proizvajalca/porabnika energije in primerjava dveh scenarijev - „gospodinjstva izklopljena iz omrežja“ in „gospodinjstva na omrežju“. Dodatni cilj je ovrednotiti vpliv javne podpore sončni elektriki na ekonomsko učinkovitost proizvajalcev/porabnikov energije).
Zasnova / metodologija / pristop: model je strukturiran kot model na mikro ravni, ki predstavlja eno gospodinjstvo. Model ima naslednje splošne značilnosti: eno gospodinjstvo z lastno proizvodnjo električne energije (fotonapetostne plošče), akumulator in v primeru „gospodinjstva na omrežju“ tudi priključek na omrežje. Glavni cilj agenta je, da pokrije porabo električne energije v gospodinjstvu z minimalnimi stroški. Model agent je preizkušen in validiran na osnovi empiričnih podatkov.
Rezultati: Najvišja raven subvencij pri izbranih scenarijih pomembno vpliva na ekonomske kazalnike. Na začetku projekta zahteva nižje investicijske stroške in posledično krajše obdobje vračila (3-4 let prej), rezultira pa tudi v pozitivni kumulativni denarni tok, neto sedanjo vrednost in IRR pa sta dosežena v krajšem obdobju (približno 5-10 let prej, odvisno od scenarija).
Zaključek: Državi priporočamo, da nadaljuje s sedanjim sistemom subvencij, saj prispeva k boljšim gospodarskim kazalnikom posameznih projektov sončne elektrike. Po drugi strani bi morala biti raven subvencije najmanj enaka kot v tekočem letu 2017, da bi predstavljala pomemben del naložbenih stroškov. Nizka stopnja subvencije ima zanemarljiv vpliv na ekonomske kazalnike gospodinjstev - projekte prosilcev. Model razvitega agenta je primeren za ocenjevanje gospodarskega vpliva javne podpore na gospodinjstva – proizvajalce/porabnike energije
