A theory of change is a purposeful model of how an initiative— such as a policy, a strategy, a program, or a project—contributes through a chain of early and intermediate outcomes to the intended result. Theories of change help navigate the complexity of social change

Serrat, Olivier

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2-2013 
Theories of Change 
Olivier Serrat 
Asian Development Bank 
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Theories of Change 
Abstract 
A theory of change is a purposeful model of how an initiative— such as a policy, a strategy, a program, or 
a project—contributes through a chain of early and intermediate outcomes to the intended result. 
Theories of change help navigate the complexity of social change. 
Keywords 
social change, theories, development 
Comments 
Suggested Citation 
Serrat, O. (2013). Theories of change. Manila: Asian Development Bank. 
Required Publisher's Statement 
This article was first published by the Asian Development Bank (www.adb.org) 
This article is available at DigitalCommons@ILR: https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/intl/269 
Knowledge 
Solutions
February 2013 | 122
A theory of change is 
a purposeful model of 
how an initiative—
such as a policy, a 
strategy, a program, or 
a project—contributes 
through a chain of 
early and intermediate 
outcomes to the 
intended result. 
Theories of change 
help navigate the 
complexity of social 
change.
The Complexity of Social Change Processes
Social change1—the process whereby individuals and 
communities adjust or abandon customs and associated 
leading ideas, values, and purposes to act differently 
in response to random (unique) or systemic factors—
is no simple matter. It is driven by a composite array 
of cultural, demographic, economic, environment, 
political, religious, scientific, and technological forces, 
singly but more often than not in coevolutionary 
combination, and almost always in the face of vested 
interests that favor the status quo. What is more, 
irrespective of evolutionary, conflict, or functional 
explanations, there are different forms, nay, intensities, 
of it:
• Discursive—a change in the narrative(s) that actors hold about a concern, problem, 
or issue.
• Procedural—a change in the way the processes that manage a concern are carried out.
• Content-based—a change in the nature of a concern.
• Attitudinal—a change in the way actors think about a concern.
• Behavioral—a change in the way actors behave vis-à-vis a concern, in other words, act 
or interface with others, in consequence 
of formal and informal changes in 
discourse, procedure, content, or 
attitude.
Development aid, for one, is ever 
more sternly asked to demonstrate 
results, an ancillary of which is to 
clarify what works or does not work and 
1	 Social	change	is	any	alteration	in	the	social	order	of	a	society—reflected	for	instance	in	institutions	or	relations,	
brought	about	by	modified	 thought	processes.	 (Illustrative	examples	of	 social	 change	 that,	 chronologically,	
produced	 profound	 social	 consequences	 include	 the	 industrial	 revolution,	 the	 abolition	 of	 slavery,	 and	 the	
feminist	movement.)	Sociologists	have	proposed	evolutionary,	conflict,	and	functionalist	theories	of	change	to	
elucidate	what	triggers	it.	[The	chief	proponents	of	each	theory	of	change	were	Auguste	Comte	(1798–1857),	
Herbert	Spencer	(1820–1903),	and	Emile	Durkheim	(1858–1917);	Karl	Marx	(1818–1883);	and	Talcott	Parsons	
(1902–1979),	respectively.]
Theories of Change
By Olivier Serrat
… one cannot but wonder how an 
environment can make people despair and sit 
idle and then, by changing the conditions, one 
can transform the same people into matchless 
performers.
—Muhammad Yunus
Knowledge 
Solutions
2
under what circumstances.2 And if development aid is about human, social, and economic progress, which of 
course intuits change, it needs therefore to frame more clearly what concrete outcomes—from dedicated inputs, 
activities, and outputs—can augment well-being and better the quality of life. Specifically, development aid 
needs good theories of change that test and validate the assumptions, rationales, means, and ends of all who are 
involved in processes of development as academic and research institutions, communities, consultants, civil and 
nongovernment organizations, donors, implementing and executing agencies, individuals, private companies, 
etc. Unfortunately, pace the cause-and-effect structure of logic models, current project planning tools do not 
readily help them do so.
Explicating Assumptions …
Marrying visioning, planning, and evaluation perspectives, leveraging also concepts of logic models, the 
Theory of Change method is an outcomes-based, participatory 
approach that applies critical thinking to the design, 
implementation, and evaluation of an initiative, e.g., a policy, 
a strategy, a program, or a project, planned to foster emergent, 
projectable, or transformative change.
Concisely, a theory of change explains how and why a sequence of logically-linked events, aka pathways 
of change, should lead to an ultimate outcome. It does so by articulating assumptions3 (or worldviews), and the 
beliefs and hypotheses they rest on, about how short-, medium-, and long-term change happens in a specific 
external context; and stipulating how early and intermediate outcomes (preconditions) toward the long-term 
change will be brought about and documented with indicators that suggest how much of, for whom, and when 
each outcome is to be realized.4 In short, a theory of change explores and represents a "so that" chain.
Box: Logic Models and Theories of Change: Telling Them Apart
Source: Author.
2	 The	bilateral	and	multilateral	development	agenda	of	the	2000s	revealed	(continuing)	concern	for	effectiveness.	In	2005,	the	signatories	to	
the	Paris	Declaration	on	Aid	Effectiveness	adopted	a	concise	framework	for	improving	the	quality	of	aid	and	its	impact	on	development.	It	is	
now	the	norm	for	aid	recipients	to	forge	their	own	national	development	strategies	with	their	parliaments	and	electorates	(ownership);	for	
donors	to	support	these	strategies	(alignment)	and	work	to	streamline	their	efforts	in-country	(harmonization);	for	development	policies	to	
be	directed	to	achieving	clear	goals	and	for	progress	towards	these	goals	to	be	monitored	(results);	and	for	donors	and	recipients	alike	to	be	
jointly	responsible	for	achieving	these	goals	(mutual	accountability).	In	2008,	the	Accra	Agenda	for	Action	reaffirmed	these	commitments;	it	
also	invited	greater	collaboration	among	donors,	recipients,	governments,	and	civil	society	organizations.	Evidence-based	solutions,	among	
others,	form	part	of	the	emerging	development	agenda	of	the	2010s.	Naturally,	what	theories	of	change	they	rest	on	are	not	static	and	call	
for	diffusion,	replication,	critique,	and	modification	so	they	may	prove	themselves	valid	(or	not).
3	 In	development	aid,	three	standard	assumptions	must	perforce	be	explored.	Time	and	again,	they	relate	to:	(i)	causality,	(ii)	implementation,	
and	(iii)	external	factors.
4	 Some	outcomes	may	eventuate	in	a	domino	effect;	this	means	that	achieving	an	early	outcome	may	lead	to	an	intermediate	outcome	
without	further	intervention	under	the	initiative.
First say to yourself what you would be; and 
then do what you have to do.
—Epictetus
A logic model (results framework) is a tactical description of the process of delivering an outcome: it insists on, somewhat mechanistically, 
inputs and activities, the outputs they generate, and the connections between the outputs and the desired outcome. (A recurring weakness is 
that assumptions are poorly articulated and stakeholders are unsure about how the change process will unfold across components.)
In contrast, a theory of change is a strategic picture of multiple interventions required to produce early and intermediate outcomes 
that are preconditions to a long-term change. (A strength is that causal pathways specify what is needed for outcomes to be achieved: 
assumptions can be tested and measured. Hence, the Theory of Change method enables organizations to think about their work more 
deeply.) Once an outcome has been identified, a results framework can be drawn to explain how it will be reached; thus, a theory of change 
could be underpinned by several logic models.
In short, logic models and theories of change differ markedly in terms of the views and experiences each holds in store vis-à-vis 
explanation or exploration on the one hand and accountability versus learning on the other.
Theories of Change
3
For sure, Doug Reeler5 argues persuasively, development is a complex process; power both lives and is 
transformed in relationships; learning from experience is the basis of self-determination; and not all crises 
are failures. However, without seeking absolute truth or a 
definitive recipe to eliminate uncertainty, making theories 
of change more explicit from the onset helps ascertain 
just what needs to happen if, say, an initiative is to get the 
target population from here to there. A theory of change 
should answer six overlapping questions: (i) what concern, 
its underlying causes, and consequences, does one and others wish to ameliorate in the long term (external 
context)? (ii) who does one seek to benefit or influence (beneficiaries)? (iii) what benefits does one aim to 
deliver (results)? (iv) when will the benefits be realized (time span)? (v) how will one and others make that 
happen (interventions)? and (vi) why, and based on what evidence, does one believe the theory of change will 
bear out (assumptions)?
Source: Author. 
Source: Author. 
5	 Doug	Reeler.	2007.	A Three-Fold Theory of Social Change and Implications for Practice, Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation.	Community	
Development	Resource	Association.
Social advance depends as much upon the 
process through which it is secured as upon 
the result itself.
—Jane Addams
Figure 1: Focusing and Scoping a Theory of Change
External
Context
Beneficiaries Results Time
Span
Interventions Assumptions
Figure 2: Elements in a Pathway of Change
Long-Term Outcome 
and Indicators
Intermediate Out-
come or Precondition 
and Indicators
Intermediate Out-
come or Precondition 
and Indicators
Early Outcome or 
Precondition and 
Indicators
Intervention Intervention
Intervention
Early Outcome or 
Precondition and 
Indicators
Early Outcome or 
Precondition and 
Indicators
Intervention Intervention
Knowledge 
Solutions
4
Source: International Initiative for Impact Evaluation. 2012. Annual Report 2011: Providing Evidence to Influence Policy. New Delhi/London/
Washington.
Between Intentions and Results Lies a Theory of Change
The Theory of Change method is a conscious and creative 
visualization exercise, preferably a habit, not a product. 
Where the initiative it purports to rationalize is ambitious, the 
thinking that underpins the theory must be given time to evolve 
with reflective analysis and practice; therefore, it should not 
be set in one single attempt. (Because assumptions can take 
time to firm up, an iterative, staged process—integrated 
with other approaches for continuous improvement, e.g., the 
Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle—can sharpen the outlook.) Some 
advantages of the Theory of Change approach are that it can help 
• Develop joint understanding of an initiative and surface differences.
• Circumscribe and bridge the gaps between local- and national-level changes.
• Unearth assumptions.
• Strengthen the focus, clarity, and effectiveness of an initiative by better locating the rationale, means, 
The society which scorns excellence in 
plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates 
shoddiness in philosophy because it is an 
exalted activity will have neither good 
plumbing nor good philosophy: neither its 
pipes nor its theories will hold water.
—John W. Gardner
Enhanced development 
effectiveness and better 
development outcomes
Better use of evidence and 
better use of findings from 
quality impact evaluations
Specific policies and 
programs are advocated
The capacity to undertake 
impact evaluation and
systematic reviews is built
Synthesized evidence is 
disseminated and applied
Rigorous impact evaluations 
are undertaken
Existing evidence is analyzed 
and synthesized
Advocacy for impact 
evaluation takes place
Funding is secured 3ie is known and recognized
Figure 3: 3ie's Theory of Change
Theories of Change
5
and ends of interventions and measuring their success.
• Design strong plans of action.
• Clarify lines of responsibility.
• Empower people to become more active and involved in a multi-stakeholder and collaborative 
experiential learning exercise.
• Identify resources and check them for adequacy.
• Recognize the most appropriate clients, audiences, and partners a sponsor can work and hold open 
conversations with.
• Foster collaboration between donors and avoid duplication.
• Communicate work more succinctly with a common language.
• Support organizational development in line with the core focus and priorities.
• Build a fruitful framework for monitoring and evaluation.
• Point up ineffective interventions.
Of course, such advantages are contingent on a theory of change being:
• Meaningful—the magnitude of the long-term outcome being pursued is worth the effort.
• Plausible—evidence and commonsense suggest that the interventions, if implemented, will lead to the 
long-term outcome.
• Doable—resources, e.g., financial, human, institutional, knowledge, political, skills, technical, and 
time, will be available and sufficient to execute the interventions.
• Testable—the theory of change is suitably specific and complete for an evaluator to track progress in 
credible and useful ways.
What initiatives actors propose reflect the health of 
their theories of change and willingness to measure what 
accomplishments really matter. Needless to say, both hinge 
on their own stage of development. In the final analysis, 
therefore, the real benefit of the Theory of Change method is 
that it builds capacity for purposeful theory and its effective 
use.
Further Reading
ADB. 2008a. Output Accomplishment and the Design and Monitoring Framework. Manila. Available: www.
adb.org/publications/output-accomplishment-and-design-and-monitoring-framework
―――. 2008b. Focusing on Project Metrics. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/focusing-project-
metrics
―――. 2008c. Outcome Mapping. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/outcome-mapping
―――. 2009. Fast and Effective Change Management. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/fast-
and-effective-change-management
―――. 2010a. The Perils of Performance Measurement. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/
perils-performance-measurement
―――. 2010b. Seeking Feedback on Learning for Change. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/
seeking-feedback-learning-change
―――. 2010c. Forestalling Change Fatigue. Manila. Available: www.adb.org/publications/forestalling-
change-fatigue
Sue Funnell and Patricia Rogers. 2011. Purposeful Program Theory: Effective Use of Theories of Change 
and Logic Models. Jossey-Bass..
Facts do not speak for themselves. They 
speak for or against competing theories. 
Facts divorced from theories or visions are 
mere isolated curiosities.
—Thomas Sowell
Knowledge 
Solutions
6
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ADB’s	vision	is	an	Asia	and	Pacific	region	free	of	poverty.	Its	mission	is	
to	help	its	developing	member	countries	reduce	poverty	and	improve	
the	quality	of	life	of	their	people.	Despite	the	region’s	many	successes,	it	
remains	home	to	two	thirds	of	the	world’s	poor:	1.8	billion	people	who	
live	on	less	than	$2	a	day,	with	903	million	struggling	on	less	than	$1.25	
a	day.		ADB	is	committed	to	reducing	poverty	through	inclusive	economic	
growth,	environmentally	sustainable	growth,	and	regional	integration.	
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methods,	and	approaches	that	propel	development	forward	and	enhance	
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appeal	to	the	development	community	and	people	having	interest	in	
knowledge	and	learning.
The	views	expressed	in	this	publication	are	those	of	the	author(s)	and	do	
not	necessarily	reflect	the	views	and	policies	of	the	Asian	Development	
Bank	(ADB)	or	its	Board	of	Governors	or	the	governments	they	represent.	
ADB	encourages	printing	or	copying	information	exclusively	for	personal	
and	noncommercial	use	with	proper	acknowledgment	of	ADB.	Users	are	
restricted	from	reselling,	redistributing,	or	creating	derivative	works	for	
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Fax	+63	2	636	2444
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For further information
Contact Olivier Serrat, Principal Knowledge Management Specialist, Regional and Sustainable Development Department, 
Asian Development Bank (oserrat@adb.org).


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