The presentation indicates our plans for activities in the Mostviertel region in the next project phase

Schönhart, Martin

FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)

Regional Pilot Case Study Mostviertel – AT  Upcoming project phase Martin Schönhart FACCE MACSUR Conference, Sassari  2nd April 2014  Case study research questions • Impacts of climate change, agricultural commodity price development and CAP reform on farm mitigation and adaptation? • Effects of land use policies on climate change adaptation and mitigation? • Potential of policies to minimize trade-offs between farm production, biodiversity conservation, landscape element preservation, and nutrient emissions? • Impacts of climate change and CAP reform - accounting for adaptation responses - on regional production and rural development?  Methods and Data CropRota1 EPIC2 FAMOS[space]3 socio-economic & RD indicators agri-environmental indicators input and output prices CAP production functions farm labor supply livestock – herd sizes  observed land use spatially explicit field data  landscape elements climate scenarios topography soil characteristics  natural & socio-economic data Input Output food production indicators 1Schönhart et al. (2011). Eur J Agron 34, 263-277. 2e.g. Izaurralde et al. (2006). Ecol Modell 192, 362-384.  3Schönhart et al. (2011). J Environ Plann Manage 54, 115-143.  Models CAPRI EPIC – model run settings FAMOS[space] scenarios AEP CAP reform Climate change in 2040 ∆ temperature (°C) ∆ precipitation (%) REF_2008 no no    0.0 0% BAU_2008 yes no    0.0 0% REF_2040 no yes    0.0 0% BAU_2040 yes yes    0.0 0% CS01 yes yes + 1.6 0% CS05 yes yes + 1.6 +20% CS09 yes yes + 1.6 -20% prelim. results – yield changes 1991-2010/2031-2050  Changes from REF_2008 on the farms (Nnorth=113, Nsouth=118) for grassland (left) and cropland (right) for the northern (N, above) and southern (S, below) case study landscape.  prelim. results – changes in total gross margins 1991-2010/2031-2050  Changes in total farm gross margin from REF_2008 for three socio-economic and three climate scenarios (upper graph: Nnorth=113, lower graph: Nsouth=118; scenario) prelim. results – land use change  Land use resulting from scenarios REF_2008 and CS05 in landscape North  Discussion - Results • Agri-environmental program (AEP) is effective; slightly increases gross margins, but some farms gain considerably (wind fall profits) • Regionally diverse climate change impact despite proximity of both landscapes • Small difference among climate scenario impacts  • Climate change impacts are in the range of CAP reform impacts • Adaptation moderates climate impacts (compare southern and northern landscape biophysical impacts) • Increasing productivity on average increases intensification pressures • threat for permanent grassland, extensive land use and landscape elements • challenges future AEP design   Discussion - Methods High spatial resolution of integrated assessment framework Abiotic and biotic environmental indicators Rich in crop and livestock management variants Detailed representation of agricultural policies  Covers two case study landscapes only No interactions among farms so far High data and computational demand + - Planned contribution to MACSUR overall objectives • Food security: implemented by output indicators on calorie/protein provision to reveal policy trade-offs and climate change impacts • Rural Development: Integration of Austrian rural development program in the socio-economic scenarios: effects on farm welfare and the environment Planned CropM/LiveM interaction • Comparison and integration of statistical grassland model data  • Integration of mitigation module covering land use and livestock • Integration of model results into landscape and biodiversity indicators  Next steps • Integration of CAPRI baseline • Integration of further climate change scenarios to be proven (extreme weather events) • Further adaptation of model structure to the case study requirements (e.g. farm interaction) • Upscaling of results (quantitative/qualitative) • Integration of stakeholder perspectives • Uncertainty analysis Prioritization of model improvement steps  Uncertainty … … climate projections (scenarios) … bio-physical impact modelling … economic land use modelling … results communication and interpretation Uncertainty management and analysis • Management options — Further climate change scenarios — Integration of results from the grassland model comparison — Representation of further adaptation options (e.g. afforestation, irrigation, alternative crop species) • Analysis options — comparison of model behavior to observations — sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations)    Expert Survey • Survey on observed and expected climate change impacts and adaptation measures • Dec-Feb 2014 • 17 experts (extension services, administration, farmers, policy makers) • Respondents: 8 • Supports definition of adaptation measures To conclude There’s a lot to do! University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences   Martin Schönhart  Please contact: martin.schoenhart@boku.ac.at   Research to this presentation has been supported by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management of Austria. 

Regional Pilot Case Study: Mostviertal – AT, upcoming project phase

https://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/download/CP3-73/238

Regional Pilot Case Study: Mostviertal – AT, upcoming project phase

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)