Delphi panel method and its possible role in district level health planning : a study in rural Kenya

Abstract

The Delphi technique, a method so far largely applied to technological forecasting and long-range planning, was tested as a component in the development of a low-cost health information system in Machakos District, Kenya. Twenty six panel members were selected from twelve villages in a subdistrict with a population of 160,000. Twelve interviewers were trained to assist the members, most of whom were illiterate, in completing questionnaires on issues such as common illnesses in the area in different age-groups and on priority interventions. Except for minor differences on ranking of most common illnesses, the Delphi study provided results comparable with a cross-sectional household interview survey simultaneously undertaken in the area. The study took about three weeks to complete at a cost of US$ 3500 - 4000. The potential usefulness of Delphi panel studies in Third World planning is discussed

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