Modelling bias in ranked data from a Delphi study in a rural Kenyan community

Abstract

The Delphi technique has mainly been applied to technological forecasting and planning. In this case, it was tested in rural Kenya as part of a subdistrict health information system. Questions focused upon perceived main health problems and alternative interventions. Interviewers were used to assist the panel members, most of whom were illiterate villagers. This paper explores a systematic approach for the detection and eventual elimination of possible biases inherent in ranking data involving a Delphi panel of twelve members. The biases were determined using the general linear model. The conclusion is that the degree of bias in a small rural African Delphi panel is insignificant that the Delphi technique can supplement health information generated through clients visiting health facilities, and that Delphi panel information can be obtained at comparatively low cost

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