Energy security analysis and energy security level assessment

Abstract

The paper presents an investigation on the development of energy security analysis and energy security level assessment technology. Energy security analysis in this work includes energy system risks investigation, modeling of different disturbances and consequences assessment. Methodology of energy security analysis based on both deterministic ant probabilistic models. It allows assessing of various uncertainties, identifying the most dangerous scenarios and critical energy infrastructure. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects, is introduced. The security indicator is a special index which gives numerical values to important issues for security of energy sector. In the paper, each indicator is described by presenting the title, comments, factual and threshold, pre-critical and critical state values. The integral characteristics of these indicators show the level of energy security and in order to identify it, a point system assessment scale is used. The methodology developed in this paper is applied for the assessment of the Lithuanian energy security level in different scenarios. The paper presents analysis of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown on Lithuanian energy security. The paper analyses the Lithuanian energy security level in 2007 and, to make a comparison, in 2010 after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, in 2014 when in Lithuania will be built LNG terminal and in 2016 when the power lines to Poland and Sweden will be constructed. A separate study in this work is dedicated to the influence of the planed nuclear power plant on Lithuanian energy security level. Acknowledgements: This research was funded by a grant for project “Lithuania energy security analysis and assessment of the energy security level” (No. ATE-1/2012) from the Research Council of LithuaniaMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta