The average phase factor of the QCD fermion determinant signals the strength
of the QCD sign problem. We compute the average phase factor as a function of
temperature and baryon chemical potential using a two-flavor NJL model. This
allows us to study the strength of the sign problem at and above the chiral
transition. It is discussed how the UA(1) anomaly affects the sign problem.
Finally, we study the interplay between the sign problem and the endpoint of
the chiral transition.Comment: 9 pages and 9 fig