The black bear Ursus americanus is an endangered species in Mexico. Its historical distribution has
decreased by approximately 80% although its current distribution is not known with precision; it is
only reported to be present in the mountains of Northern Mexico. This study proposes two ensemble
models: Mexicoıs
´ black bear (a) potential distribution compared with Natural Protected Areas (NPAs);
and, (b) persistence areas for 2024. The current distribution variables are coniferous forest, elevation
and dry forest. Suitable habitat for black bear (354,047 km2
, 18.07% of the country) was found mainly in
the north of the Sonoran biogeographical zone, along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the center and south
of the Sierra Madre Oriental and some northern regions of the Altiplano Norte. Comparing these areas
with NPAs documented that only 12.41% of potential distribution coincided with current suitable habitat. There are unprotected areas in Sierra Madre Occidental center and central and southern of Sierra
Madre Oriental. The model for 2024 indicates a reduction of suitable habitat of 64.5%, mainly in the
northern Sonoran zone and the center Sierra Madre Occidental. On the other hand, areas that will persist
(125,673 km2) are located along the two main mountain ranges of Mexico. Identification of these sites
will allow strengthening of long-term conservation strategie