Cameron, D.R.

Hanm, J.W.

English

University of Saskatchewan Research Archive

- 148 -PART II CULWRAL PRACTICES IN SASKATCHEWAN IN 1990 AND 2000 AND EFFECIS ON PRODUCTIVI1Y 1 2 J. W. Hanm, D. R. Cameron 1. 0 INIRODUCI'ION There are definite indications that Saskatchewan, the "Sleeping Giant" of Western Canadian agriculture, is coming out of its slumber. The indicators of "the awakening" are complex and, sometimes contradic-tory. ~s paper presents some highlights of a comprehensive research project· aimed at defining future cultural practices, their impact · on the soil resource, productivity and drought mitigation. The find-ings regarding fertilizer use and practices projected for the 1980's and 1990's are pertinent to policy decisions for Saskatchewan agri-culture. The study predicts that the historic absence of fertilizer technol-ogy in Saskatchewan farming systems will be replaced by a presence which will dominate other teclmology till the year 2000 A.D. It also placed a new perspective on the relative contributions of agricultural inputs towards future productivity increases. Closing the "fertilizer gap," in Saskatchewan will enable the long-awaited transition to intensive crop production in m:::>st of the province. This phenomena will constitute the rem:::>val of the last agronomic factor limiting crop production in the humid region and part of the semi-arid protion of the province. The full acceptance of fertilizer technology by the majority of Saskatchewan fanners by the year 2000 will be the driving force enabling the adoption of longer rotations. Optimum fertilizer use coupled with minimum tillage and water enhancement technology will raise productivity to a new plateau. These interacting technologies will also, finally, allow the utilization of latent genetic capabilities 1Manager, darWall Consultants, Saskatoon. ~ncipal, No:rmac AES, Swift Curretft. 3stuiy Element #8 of the Saskatchewan Drought Proofing Studies. F\mded by P .F .R.A. under the Canada-Saskatchewan interim subsidiary agreement on water development for regional economic expansion and drought proof-ing.. Prime consultants: J. W. Harrm, darWall Consultants; D. R. Cameron, Nonmc AES; W. W. Gamble, FannWest Management. Resource persons: D. A. Rennie, W. E. Johnson, G. Storey, J. L. Henry. - 149 -in our crop varieties. 2. 0 FERTILIZER USE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS The magnitude of the "fertilizer gap" in Saskatchewan is best illus-trated by comparing historic fertilizer and herbicide use data (Figure 2.0}. The socio-economic reasons for the lag in acceptance of fertilizer technology relative to herbicides are complex. However, the dominant factor has been "perceived benefit." The effect of herbicide applica-tions on weeds are immediately apparent to a producer whereas fertilizer effects are often less obvious, particularly at the rates recommended by the early advisory services in this province. The current and projected fertilizer use patterns within Saskatchewan are best examined in tenns of nutrient rates and areas fertilized. The rates used in 1981 relative to optimum rates prescrrEed by the Saskatche-wan Soil Testing Laboratory are given in Table 2 .1. Past, present and projected areas fertilized for the major soil zones are given in Figure 2.1. Future rates of fertilizer application mainly will be dictated by price-cost considerations.1 The effect of some projected grain prices and fertilizer nutrient costs on rates of application can be assessed by examining the ratio of these items: Ratio ($/mt) 1980 1990 2000 Wheat 0.95 0.64 0.70 N(46-0-0) Wheat 0.53 0.41 0.47 P{ll-48-0) These data would suggest that optimum N and P rates of application will decline in the period 1980 to 1990 and increase slightly in the period 1990 and 2000. Optimum N rates will show the sharpest decline and will not return to 1980 levels. Optimum P rates will only decline slightly and will return to 1980 levels by the end of the study period. Another factor to consider is the adequacy of N and P rates recornr mended by the Saskatchewan Soil Testing Laboratory and other provincial advisory services. The nitrogen gt4delines were revised in 1978 and reflect current fertility research.2 It is unlikely that the fundamental equations derived at that time will change significantly in the next two decades. 1M. Anderson and Associates. 1982. Study Element #2. Sask. Drought Proofing Studies. ~' J. W. and Ward, R. 1978. A Mathematical M:xiel for Predicting Fertilizer N Requirements (Saskatchewn Soil Testing Laboratory files). - 150 -FIGURE 2.0. Relative acceptance of fertilizer and herbicides in Saskatchewan. - 151 -TABlE 2.1 AVERAGE RATE OF FERTILIZER USED AND PER CENT OF OPTIMUM IN 1981 By All Fanners Soil Zone lb/Ac %of Optimum BROWN 23.1 37 DARK BROWN 38.0 37 'IHIN BlACK 58.1 46 OIHER 82.2 57 By Fertilizer Users lb/Ac % of Optimum 65 103 80 78 89 71 103 72 Optimum Rate1 lb/Ac 63 103 126 144 1ealculated from annual fertilizer N and P requirements. Assuming 46-0-0 as the N source and 11-51-0 as the P source. "'0 c c ....J "'0 Q) Q. Q. e u -0 o Brown • Dark Brown o Thin Black ~ Other - 152 -----4 -"""""' --o / --/ 9/ .,..,...• / / ..,.,.....,., / / / / / ,1/ I II / I I / I / I I I I I I I / / / / / / / / / /0 / / / / fl / / 0~--------~--------~--------~------~ 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 FIGURE 2.1. Propbrtion of cropped land fertilized in the various soil zones in 1971 and 1981 and projections for 1990 and 2000. - 153 -The phosphorus guidelines for the laboratory, however, have not been thoroughly revised since 1972.1 Cursory examination of recent P response data, indicates that the current P guidelines are conser-vative and will likely be revised upward. Given these and other considerations, projections for future N and P consumption were calculated (Figure 2.2). This exercise basically indicated a continuation of the linear trend established in the 1970's. 3. 0 IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY AND INTENSIVE CROPPIJ;.K; IN SASKATCHEWAN The increased N and P utilization will increase both summerfallow and stubble yields. However, it will have the roost dramatic effect on stubble yields. Thus, the historic discrepancy between stubble and fallow returns will diminish. The roost critical parameter governing intensive vs. extensive farming practices in Saskatchewan is the ratio of stubble to fallow yields. The current (1971-81) stubble:fallow (ST/SF) yield ratios for the five major crops (Wheat, barley, oats, rape and flax) and pro-jections for 1990 and 2000 are given in Figure 3.1). The ST/SF yield ratios in the Brown and Dark Brown increased significantly in the period. However, the ratios in the more ~d zones are projected to increase more rapidly and approach 1.0 by 2000 A.D. Two scenarios are given for the Dark Brown soil zone depending on the effectiveness and acceptance of minimum tillage coupled with snow trapping technology. Scenario A will be achieved with minimal effectiveness and adoption; Scenario B represents general adoption and success of these innovations. The improved stubble productivity will impact on cropping intensity ~ adequate transportation and marketing infrastructure ( i) guaranteed SUpPiy and N and P fertilizers and ( ii) updated and adequate soil . diagnostic advisory services. Historic and projected crop rotation lengths are given in Figure 3.2. the sharp increase in stubble cropping revealed by the 1981 census is the major indicator of "the awakening" of the Saskatchewan giant. The modest increases projected for the Brown and Dark Brown zones reflect the reatity ·of current and projected ST /SF yield ratios. 4.0 RElATIVE IMPACT OF FERTILIZER USE ON FUTIJRE PRODUCTIVITY Changes in projected cultural practices will result in the folloWing increases in crop productivity by the year 2000 A.D.: 1 Harrm, J. W. , Henry, J. L. and Halstead, W. H. 1972. Proc. Agric. Pollution Seminar, Saskatoon. - 154 --J() 0 -X-f/) c 0 +-+-L. 0 ..c: (f) ........ c 0 +-a. E :::J f/) c 0 u I() 0 cr "0 c 0 z 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year FIGURE 2.2. Fertilizer N and P projections for 1990 and 2000 based on projected levels of acceptance and rates of application. - 155 -1.0 X Brown tJl • Dark Brown 0 •.-I Thin Black .u 0 ~ ~ 6 Other "0 0.9 ~ Q.l 0 •.-I >-3 0 ~ ~ ~ ? ll-l -· ~ 0.8 Q.l -E ,8'" E -::l ,.... C/) , -A- -· ......... Q.l ~ ..0 ..0 ::l .w C/) 0.7 c: ~ Q.l ~ "Safe" Breakeven Yield. Ratio 0.6 0.5~------~------------------L-----------------~---------1980 1990 2000 Year FIGURE 3 .1. Changes in mean stubb1e:surnmerfallow yield ratios during pro--jection period for major dry1and crops in Saskatchewan. -..c -0'1 c j c 0 •.t= 0 -& 5 a.3 0 ~ u c 0 cu :;! x Brown • Dark Brown o Thin Black A Other - 156 -A ------2L-------~------~--------~------~--------~------~ 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year FIGURE 3.2. Historic crop rotation length and projection for 1990 and 2000. 40 1-1-30 20 -10 -0 ' 10 -- 157 -Othr ut:nr -MT & HzO Othr Othr4 MT &~0 Gentes MT & H2o Gentes Gentes Herb. Gentes- Herb Herb ·. Herb Fertiliz FertilizE r r Fertilize h-Use Use Use Fertilize .. . ~T ..... .., .... GRAY BlACK DARK THIN & GRAY BROWN BROWN BlACK FIGURE 4.1. The relative contributions of inputs and technology to projected fallow crop productivity increases for the year 2000; corrected for soil degradation. 50-40 --~ 30 -11.! Q) rn ctl ~ g H ::>-. .4-1 20 -·s •.-1 .4-1 j 10 -0 10 -- 158 -Othr Mr & R,O Mr&Hz Gntcs Herb Othr Othr. Mr & HzO MT & HzO Gntcs Gntcs Herb Herb Fertilize .... Fertili2 ~r Fertiliz r Use Use Use DARK TIUN BROON BROWN BlACK FIGURE 4.2. The relative contribution of inputs and teclmology to stubble crop productivity increases projected for the year 2000 A.D. corrected for soil degradation. Othr I I I Gntcs ! ! ' ' ! Herb ; ; ! ; Fertilize:_-Use GRAY BlACK & GRAY - 159 -Increase over. Current Productivity (%) Soil Zone Summerfallow Stubble Brown Dark Brown Thin Black Gray Black and Gray 19 22 24 21 38 39 54 53 The impact of increased fertilizer use relative to the impact of improvements in other technologies during this period are portrayed in Figures 4.1 and 4.2. Improved nutrition will be responsible for 45 to 57% of increased productivity on summerfallow and 55 to 75% of the increases on stubble. These facts raise some interesting questions regarding agricultural research and extension priorities and the supply of fertilizer nutrients during the period. 5.0 1HE SOIL QUALI'IY - PRODUCTIVI'IY CONTRADICTION It is critical to realize that the previous projection includes a discount factor for soil degradation. In essence, improved farming practices in the next two decades will more than offset soil degradation during that period! Will this trend continue or will the insiduous degradation process eventually succeed in negatinglfechnological advances and reduce produc-tivity to historic levels or lower. The study team addressed these questions and fotmd that the data base for assessing future changes in productivity in this province is totally inadequate •. However, some qualitative conclusions were drawn regarding long-term productivity despite this disconcerting dis-covery: Black, Gray Black and Gray Soil Zones Sustained or increased productivity in the long term seems reason-ably certain in these zones. The major factor being increased crop rotations and the associated soil conservation effects. Dark Brown and Brown Soil Zones Sustained annual crop production in the long term in these zones is an unlikely possibility given current technology. Minimum tillage and water enhancement technology may stabilize production at an acceptable level in the Dark Brown soli zone. However, the same cannot be said for the Brown zone. For this zone, the projected increases for 2000 may well constitute the peak production to be followed - 160 -by an agonizing decline. 6. 0 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 6.1 Fertilizer N and P Supply Increased production in the 1980's and 1990's and sustained pro-duction thereafter will depend upon a guaranteed supply of fertilizer nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The projected increases in demand will be equalled by increases in fertilizer plant capacity in Western Canada. However, there is no guarantee that Saskatchewan farmers will have access to the increased output. Recorrmendation: That the government encourage the private sector to establish fertilizer N and P plants in Saskatchewan via financial and other means in exchange for priority on output. 6.2 Soil Diagnostic and Advisory Services The current soil testing facilities in Saskatchewan, while it offers one of the most advanced services in the Central Plains Region, is grossly inadequate. Private diagn~stic services based in the United States and Alberta often do not understand the Saskatchewan system and/or provide inferior recommendations. The provincial soils advisory service is inadequately staffed and qualified to meet the challenge. Recommendation: 1. That the provincial government stabilize the Saskatchewan Soil Testing laboratory and designate it as the "model" laboratory for others which operate or wish to establish in the province .. 2. Provide incentive to the private sector to establish soil testing laboratories in Regina, North Ba.ttleford, Mel fort, Yorkton and Weyburn. Financial incentives should be conditional on the adoption of the proven and successful system developed by the Saskatchewan Soil Testing laboratory and the Saskatchewan Advisory Council on Soils and Agronomy. -3. Fund , via SARF or other mechanisms, fertility data analysis projects to utilize the massive amounts of current data which researchers are accumulating but which need to impact on soil test guidelines and general recommendations to farmers. eg. a) optimum P rates for all crops b) variable rate fertilization implications. - 161 -6.3 Soil Degradation, Fertility and Productivity Studies The data base for assessing and projecting the effect of future crop rotations and cultural practices on the soil resource, productivity and energy consumption does not exist. Nor are the mathematical m:xlels needed to provide practical answers to the questions of long-term pro-ductivity available in usuable forms. These questions are not new and the lack of adequate answers of an integrated and comprehensive nature suggests that our research system is not geared to handle these questions. The "publish or perish" syn-drome which governs research in public institutions often results in the rejection of interdisciplinary projects of a comprehensive nature. On the other hand, task-oriented research is ideally suited to the private sector. The private agricultural consulting industry in Saskatchewan is alive an well. However, it is rarely recognized by politicians and bureacrats alike. The situation in Alberta is con-siderably different. There, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Environment have "farmed out" these questions on land use and soil management to professionals in the private sector and have received objective and reliable answers. Recorrmendation: 1. That the provincial government: ( i) recognize the need for interdisciplinary research in agriculture and the environment; and, (ii) establish research priorities in this regard. 2. That the government utilize the private agricultural research industry to resolve questions: ( i) of an interdisciplinary nature; ( ii) which are not suited to two and three year graduate student pro-grams or, (iii) Which are not otherwise compatible to existing public research systems. 

Part II: Cultural practices in Saskatchewan in 1990 and 2000 and effects on productivity

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Part II: Cultural practices in Saskatchewan in 1990 and 2000 and effects on productivity

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