Non-Peer ReviewedThis study used the Century soil organic matter (SOM) model to simulate the dynamics in soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in long-term crop rotation studies established in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Observed losses of organic C, N, and P in the top 30 cm of a Brown Chernozem under fallow-wheat (FW) were 8.2, 1.7, and 1.0 g m-1 y-1. Soil erosion was responsible for 47% of the organic-N losses. The Century model closely mimicked the direction and magnitude of SOM change, within 10% of measured values. Similar SOM declining trends were observed in a thin Black Chernozem under FW and continuous wheat (CW), although soil erosion losses were higher than in the Brown Chernozem. Soil organic matter increased in the Brown Chernozem under CW and in the Black Chernozem under zero-tillage. Under no-till, the organic C, N, and P accumulated at an average rate of 101.7, 5.3, and 2.0 g m-2 y-1. In comparison, the Century model predicted a depletion of organic-C and N in the Brown Chernozem under CW and of organic-C under no-till. Model sensitivity analyses indicated that the rate of erosion and the fixed rate of organic matter decomposition had greater effects than plant biomass production on soil organic matter levels. Under aggrading SOM conditions, the Century model predicted organic carbon accumulation only
after the respiration rate for the slow organic matter fraction was reduced by 50%