Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050

Abstract

The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and the goal is instead other values/goals that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed, that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of the four scenarios is: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life, and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios should also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability goals and the multi-target approach.QC 20181127</p