We compare the physics potential of the upcoming neutrino oscillation
experiments Daya Bay, Double Chooz, NOvA, RENO, and T2K based on their
anticipated nominal luminosities and schedules. After discussing the
sensitivity to theta_{13} and the leading atmospheric parameters, we
demonstrate that leptonic CP violation will hardly be measurable without
upgrades of the T2K and NOvA proton drivers, even if theta_{13} is large. In
the presence of the proton drivers, the fast track to hints for CP violation
requires communication between the T2K and NOvA collaborations in terms of a
mutual synchronization of their neutrino-antineutrino run plans. Even in that
case, upgrades will only discover CP violation in a relatively small part of
the parameter space at the 3 sigma confidence level, while 90% confidence level
hints will most likely be obtained. Therefore, we conclude that a new facility
will be required if the goal is to obtain a significant result with high
probability.Comment: 27 pages, 12 figure