Existing climate change will lead to pronounced shifts in the diversity of soil prokaryotes

Abstract

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in mSystems 3 (2018): e00167-18, doi:10.1128/mSystems.00167-18.Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program (XDB15010101, XDA05050404) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National Program on Key Basic Research Project (2014CB954002, 2014CB954004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41701298, 41371254), the “135” Plan and Frontiers Projects of Institute of Soil Science (ISSASIP1641), and the National Science and Technology Foundation project (2015FY110100). J.A.G. was supported by the U.S. Dept. of Energy under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. N.F. was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0953331). K.S.P. and J.L. were supported by the National Science Foundation (DMS-1069303), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grant no. 3300), the Gladstone Institutes, and a gift from the San Simeon Fund