Bubeck, P.

Dekkers, J.E.C.

Linde, A.H. te

Ward, P.J.

DSpace at VU

In: Kabat, P. & Vellinga, P. (eds.) Abstracts Scientific Programme Deltas in Depth.  
International conference Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 29 September-1 October 2010 
 
Flood risk developments and adaptation strategies in the Rhine-Meuse delta 
Philip Bubeck1, Aline te Linde1, Jasper Dekkers1 and Philip Ward, 1 
1VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 
 
With almost 9 million inhabitants the Rhine-Meuse delta is a densely populated area. It is also 
very important from an economic perspective, as up to 65% of Dutch GDP is produced here. The 
delta faces flood risks from both its rivers and the sea. Even though a substantial part of today’s 
delta is already below sea level, the current risk of flooding mainly originates from its rivers, 
since river embankments have lower safety levels than coastal protection.  
 
Estimating (future) flood risk, defined as probability x damage, requires insights in both flooding 
probabilities and potential consequences. Changes in both of these parameters are expected in 
the future, which will increase overall flood risk. Urbanization and industrialization are projected 
to intensify in the delta’s flood prone areas, thus enhancing potential damage. As a result of 
climate change, extreme peak discharges, and consequently flooding probabilities are also 
expected to increase. Against this background, a better understanding of the scale of these future 
flood risk increases is required. For the development of possible adaptation strategies it is 
important to comprehend the independent contributions of the main driving forces to the overall 
increase in risk. Since flood management strategies in the upstream parts of the basins can have a 
significant effect on flood risk in the delta itself, it is important to take the entire basin into 
account.  
 
To estimate current and future flood risk we apply a uniform flood risk model for the rivers 
Meuse and Rhine and their delta. Our risk model combines information on flood probabilities 
and flood damage estimations, using two different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. 
The change in the frequency of return periods corresponding to specific inundation scenarios are 
estimated by applying extreme value analyses to the output of hydrological models driven by 
climate scenarios data. Changes in land use as a result of socio-economic developments are 
derived from the ‘Land Use Scanner’ model. This GIS-based economics-oriented probabilistic 
model uses a logit-function to simulate demand for, and supply of, land in an iterative process. 
To estimate potential flood damages the information on land use (change) and inundation depths 
are combined by using depth-damage functions. By integrating both climate change and socio-
economic scenarios we are able to discriminate the independent contribution of the two driving 
forces on overall flood risk. The model will also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of different 
adaptation strategies in terms of risk reduction.  
 
The EU flood directive 2007/60/EC asks member states to consider the impacts of water-related 
or spatial policies and to evaluate risk management plans against the background of climate 
change (preamble 9 and14). The applied risk model allows assessing the impacts and long-term 
effectiveness of various flood management policies, ranging from spatial and non-structural to 
structural measures and thus contributes to the aims of the EU-flood directive. Furthermore, the 
derived insights are also indispensable to facilitate cooperation between upstream and 
downstream stakeholders and to inform the population at risk. 


Flood risk development and adaption strategies in the Rhine-Meuse delta

te Linde, A.H.

VU Research Portal

VU Research PortalFlood risk development and adaption strategies in the Rhine-Meuse deltaBubeck, P.; te Linde, A.H.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; Ward, P.J.published inAbstracts scientific programme deltas in depth2010document versionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication in VU Research Portalcitation for published version (APA)Bubeck, P., te Linde, A. H., Dekkers, J. E. C., & Ward, P. J. (2010). Flood risk development and adaptionstrategies in the Rhine-Meuse delta. In P. Kabat, & P. Vellinga (Eds.), Abstracts scientific programme deltas indepth (pp. 261-261). Deltas in times of climate change.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain            • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ?Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.E-mail address:vuresearchportal.ub@vu.nlDownload date: 23. May. 2021In: Kabat, P. & Vellinga, P. (eds.) Abstracts Scientific Programme Deltas in Depth.  International conference Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 29 September-1 October 2010  Flood risk developments and adaptation strategies in the Rhine-Meuse delta Philip Bubeck1, Aline te Linde1, Jasper Dekkers1 and Philip Ward, 1 1VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands  With almost 9 million inhabitants the Rhine-Meuse delta is a densely populated area. It is also very important from an economic perspective, as up to 65% of Dutch GDP is produced here. The delta faces flood risks from both its rivers and the sea. Even though a substantial part of today’s delta is already below sea level, the current risk of flooding mainly originates from its rivers, since river embankments have lower safety levels than coastal protection.   Estimating (future) flood risk, defined as probability x damage, requires insights in both flooding probabilities and potential consequences. Changes in both of these parameters are expected in the future, which will increase overall flood risk. Urbanization and industrialization are projected to intensify in the delta’s flood prone areas, thus enhancing potential damage. As a result of climate change, extreme peak discharges, and consequently flooding probabilities are also expected to increase. Against this background, a better understanding of the scale of these future flood risk increases is required. For the development of possible adaptation strategies it is important to comprehend the independent contributions of the main driving forces to the overall increase in risk. Since flood management strategies in the upstream parts of the basins can have a significant effect on flood risk in the delta itself, it is important to take the entire basin into account.   To estimate current and future flood risk we apply a uniform flood risk model for the rivers Meuse and Rhine and their delta. Our risk model combines information on flood probabilities and flood damage estimations, using two different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. The change in the frequency of return periods corresponding to specific inundation scenarios are estimated by applying extreme value analyses to the output of hydrological models driven by climate scenarios data. Changes in land use as a result of socio-economic developments are derived from the ‘Land Use Scanner’ model. This GIS-based economics-oriented probabilistic model uses a logit-function to simulate demand for, and supply of, land in an iterative process. To estimate potential flood damages the information on land use (change) and inundation depths are combined by using depth-damage functions. By integrating both climate change and socio-economic scenarios we are able to discriminate the independent contribution of the two driving forces on overall flood risk. The model will also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies in terms of risk reduction.   The EU flood directive 2007/60/EC asks member states to consider the impacts of water-related or spatial policies and to evaluate risk management plans against the background of climate change (preamble 9 and14). The applied risk model allows assessing the impacts and long-term effectiveness of various flood management policies, ranging from spatial and non-structural to structural measures and thus contributes to the aims of the EU-flood directive. Furthermore, the derived insights are also indispensable to facilitate cooperation between upstream and downstream stakeholders and to inform the population at risk. 

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Flood risk development and adaption strategies in the Rhine-Meuse delta

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