Kersbergen, C.J. [Promotor]van Keman, J.E. [Promotor

Vis, B.

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Welfare states or workfare regimes?
Losses loom larger than gains
Faculty of Social Sciences
Dissertation
P
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W
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Barb
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Biting the Bullet or Steering Clear? 
Politics of (Not-) Unpopular Welfare State Reform  
in Advanced Capitalist Democracies 
For over two decades now, welfare state reform has been featuring highly on the 
political agenda of Western democracies. How much and in which direction has 
social policy changed as a result? Moreover, why and when do governments pursue 
different types of reforms, even if they are of the same political colour?  
By investigating welfare state change since the late 1970s, this study presents a 
number of innovations to deal with these key questions in welfare state research. 
Methodologically, it conducts so-called fuzzy-set analysis to address some per-
sistent problems. The study’s results indicate, for example, that – in contrast to 
theoretical predictions and in spite of substantial reforms – welfare states have not 
transformed into workfare regimes. Theoretically, this study shows that insights 
from prospect theory – a behavioural theory of choice under risk – are of great 
value for understanding why some governments are more willing than others to 
pursue unpopular social policies, thereby risking losing the next election.  
Prospect theory posits that a government finding itself in a situation of ‘losses’  
(e.g. declining popularity) is willing to take far greater electoral risks than a govern-
ment in more favourable circumstances; a hypothesis that this study corroborates 
empirically. Conversely, governments only pursue not-unpopular reform, such as 
increasing spending on active labour market programmes, when they are facing 
gains. This study’s new theoretical angle and innovative methodological approach 
together provide a better understanding of the politics of welfare state reform. 
	 	Barbara	Vis	is	assistant	professor	at	the	Department	of	Political	Science,		
Vrije	Universiteit	Amsterdam,	the	Netherlands.	
Biting the Bullet or Steering Clear? 
ISBN-13: 978-90-9022715-3
Barbara Vis


Politics of (Not-) Unpopular Welfare State Reform in Advanced Capitalist Democracies

http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/15642/cover.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Politics of (Not-) Unpopular Welfare State Reform in Advanced Capitalist Democracies

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