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research
Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise
Authors
A Kaijser
A Lejour
+31 more
D Dantzig Van
D Huitema
D Huitema
Dave Huitema
DWW Rijkswaterstaat
DWW Rijkswaterstaat
E Hartman
F Huysmans
H Middelkoop
H Vrijling
HJM Goverde
J Boer De
J Dryzek
JE Hansen
JTA Bressers
JW Kingdon
Laurens M. Bouwer
LM Bouwer
M Lythe
M Oppenheimer
NM Grijp van der
Peter van der Werff
R Brouwer
RE Kasperson
RSJ Tol
S Schama
SMM Kuks
TAW
ThA Birkland
U Beck
Xander Olsthoorn
Publication date
1 January 2008
Publisher
Doi
Cite
Abstract
What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions - such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) - evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned. © 2008 The Author(s)
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