Stochastic Transition of Fire-prevention Performanceof Urban Area

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the tendency of building renewal in order to understand the fire prevention performance of the Tokyo metropolitan area. To this end, firstly, the Tokyo metropolitan area was divided into small areas of 250,000 square meters, and the following stochastic transition matrix of each small area was estimated, 1. Stochastic matrix of state transition between the building use types, 2. Stochastic matrix of state transition between the structures of buildings. Secondly, the converged state of each small area was estimated with a Markov chain model. Finally, small areas where fire prevention performance will change for the better/constant/worse were pointed out from their converged states. The results suggest that in small areas where percentage of housing and commerce are increasing, the fire prevention performance will become worse.