Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of
predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is
to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent
granularity. A Bayesian would assign a data-independent prior probability to
"subdivide", which leads to a prior over infinite(ly many) trees. We derive an
exact, fast, and simple inference algorithm for such a prior, for the data
evidence, the predictive distribution, the effective model dimension, moments,
and other quantities. We prove asymptotic convergence and consistency results,
and illustrate the behavior of our model on some prototypical functions.Comment: 32 LaTeX pages, 9 figures, 5 theorems, 1 algorith
