Póster presentado en: Joint 29th ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM All Staff Meeting, celebrado del 1 al 5 de abril de 2019 en la Sede central de AEMET en Madrid

Calvo Sánchez, Francisco Javier

Díez Muyo, María Victoria

Martín Pérez, Daniel

Morales Martín, Gema

Sánchez Arriola, Jana

Viana Jiménez, Samuel

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

The NWP Activities at  AEMET (Spain)29th ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM ASM, 1st/04th April 2019, MadridHARMONIE-AROME operational suite is based on v40h1.1 and it is one ofthe HARMONIE RCRs used to monitor the quality of the reference system:• 2.5 km runs 8 times per day with 48 hours forecast length and 15 minoutput 2 geographical domains (Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands).• AROME physics: Explicit deep convection, SURFEX and ICE3 microphysics• Unified scheme for shallow convection (EDMFM)12 UTC06 UTC No RSWeight of different observations in the DA: DFS for different assimilation timesThe wind gust estimation is based on 10 m windand the Turbulent Kinetic Energy 2102010 1mmmgustFTKEFF (a) (b) (c)Thresholds: > 80 km/h> 100 km/h> 120 km/hObservation analysis HARM-AROME forecastMax wind gust on 12-08-2018:Overestimation with intense deep convection  810001 20020022002020  VandandVVVxCwithCnlevtsSSOtot Verification of the operational suite shows a clear positive wind bias in 10 m wind fieldthat is not present in the METCOOP RCR. This suggest a need of an enhanced roughnessover the Iberian Peninsula. The OROTUR parameterization (Rontu et al, 2018) has beentested with the following setupOROTUR (7 month verification): The orographic parameterization reduces significacntly the wind bias. Over the mountains it reduces the STDV and  the bias changes the sign (red line). The drawback is a lowerperformance for high wind speeds specially over the mountains. We think that there is room for improvementtuning further the OROTUR settingsALL observations z > 1000 mSTDV & BiasETSIn the frame of SAMOA Project, AEMET is runningHARMONIE-AROME over 4 domains at 1 kmresolution and 30 seconds time step twice per day inan operational mode with a forecast length of 48hours.SETUP• IFS 0.1o nesting.  Dynamical adaptation with IFS nesting.• Cycle 40h1.1 with PC scheme, original HARATU turbulence (update reversed).• SL horizontal diffusion (SLHD) for hydrometeorsand spectral variables.RESULTSImprovement of 10 m wind at the 4 areasproviding more accurate forecast.Domains at 1.0 km, comparedwith operational 2.5 km domains.VERIFICATIONSignificant improvement of 10 m wind for all areas and wind speed categories.Also improvement in 2 m temperatureGulf of Biscay verification during March 2017. Operational 2.5 km (red) compared to1 km runs (green).10 m wind maps for the Alboran Sea area. 20180819 00 UTC H+10. One wind arrow out of eight plottedI. Santos Atienza, E. Padorno Prieto, J.A. Ruíz Pacheco, I. Martínez Marco•Run in BULL-ATOS supercomputer 7760 processors with hyperthreading• Surface data assimilation with optimal interpolation. • 3DVar upper air analysis with 1:10 cutofftime including ATOVS and GNSS slant delay dataPeriod: 1 sep 2017-31 aug 2018 (1 year)mm/3hrUTCcy40cy38ECMWFDiurnal cycle of precipitation. As expected, convection-permittingmodels reproduce better the diurnal cycle than models withparameterized convection (ECMWF). The maximun takes place between 15-18 UTC whereas in ECMWF occurs 3 hr earlier. Allmodels tend to kill convection too quickly after the maximumFractional Skill Score function of the grid scale and the threshold (ppt/24h). for 2 exps cy40 (left) and cy38 (right). Scores improve with the length scale and seems to saturates around 40-50 km. Cy40 verifies better for all the thresholds.  Camipns, Joan: Assimilation of AMDAR humidity observations (talk) Geijo, Carlos: Towards a NWC application based on HARMONIE-AROME (talk)  Escribà, Pau: LETKF with a like-operational HARMONIE-AROME in AEMET (talk) Viana, Samuel: Testing target cy43h surface options in climate mode for assessment & reduction of surface bias: First results (talk) Martín, Daniel: Use of CAMS Aerosols in Harmonie-Arome (talk) Hernández, Ángeles: Simulated Satellite Imagery from Harmonie-Arome –Applications (talk) Callado, Alfons: AEMET-gSREPS: The Convection-permitting LAM-EPS at AEMET (talk) Operational suite is based on HARMONIE-AROME cycle 40h1.1 at 2.5 km resolution. Significant progress including new observations in the DA system• The assimilation of radar reflectivities leads to a reduction of False Alarm Rate of precipitation and and improvement on the model precipitation forecast skill.• The scatterometer data is working in the DA system and we are in the process of tuning the system in combination with radar data and other observations Clear positive bias in 10 m wind suggests a need of an enhanced roughness. Tests with OROTUR orographic parametrization are encouraging although a balance needs to be found between reducing wind bias while keeping accuracy for high wind speeds Besides, the wind gust estimation has been tuned to reduce False Alarms. This do not solve the problem of too high wind gusts associated with intense convection in the model.  1 km resolution runs clearly improve wind forecasts in Harbour Areas0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 20 221810m wind (m/s)V 10m  STDV & Bias V 10m  ETS T 2m  STDV & BiasCorrespondence address: fcalvos@aemet.es• Spin-up PERIOD: 23 jan-10 feb 2019.      GNSS ZTD BIAS coeff adjustment (GNSS ZTD Passive)• PERIOD of study: 11 feb – 24 march 2019, 2 experiments Cy40h11 at Nimbus:    3DVar, 3h cycle1) AIB:  operational run  NO radar,      3DVar: conv, GNSS ZTD, ATOVS2) AIBr_fr2 (REFL):  3DVar: obs conv, GNSS ZTD, ATOVS, radar reflectivity (ES, PT, FR) * Updated GNSS White List and increase of  its obs error * Updated ATOVS channels/sats selection * Radar reflectivities from ES+PT+FR assimilationOPERATIONAL REFL The assimilation of radar reflectivities together withconventional observations, gnssZTD and ATOVS leads to a reduction of False Alarm Rate of 3h accumulated precipitationand then an improvement onthe model precipitation forecastskill.Impact of different gnss σo• PERIOD 11 feb – 11 march 2019, radar reflectivities ES+PT+FR , New gnss WL, updated ATOVS channels/sats selectExperiments: AIBr_fr: σo=20mm, AIBr_fr2: σo=30mm, AIBr_fr3: σo=40mmDFS plotsso=20mmso=30mm so=40mmJana Sánchez• PERIOD of study: 17 mar-25 mar 2019• Cy40h11, 3DVar, 3h cycle 3DVar: obs conv, GNSS ZTD, ATOVS, radar reflectivity (ES, PT, FR) . 2 experiments:• AIB_fr: Reference• AIBr_fras:  Including also ASCAT  data• Operational without radar and ASCAT dataLittle impact of changing σo values,diferentthinningdistances willalso be testedThe ASCAT DA is working well with promising results after the work of Monteiro (2018). Further tests are needed to tune the assimilation of this data in combination with radar and other data sources currently included in the operational system.Jana Sánchez andIsabel Monteiro (IPMA)Gema Morales

The NWP Activities at AEMET (Spain): 29th ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM ASM [Póster]

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/10535/1/Poster_ALADIN_HIRLAM_2019.pdf

The NWP Activities at AEMET (Spain): 29th ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM ASM [Póster]

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