Presentación al congreso NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop, 24-26 February 201

Marcos Martín, Cecilia

Sancho Ávila, Juan Manuel

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

NWC SAF GEO Precipitation Products: Present Status and Future DevelopmentsNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015 AEMET - MadridCecilia Marcos Juanma SanchoNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Overview• Precipitating Clouds (PGE04)• Convective Rainfall Rate (PGE05)• Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)• Future Developments• Validation:Traditional MethodsNew Spatial Validation Methods: Preliminary ResultsNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Precipitating Clouds (PGE04)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Precipitating Clouds (PGE04)OUTPUTS:The PC product shall consist of a numerical value for the likelihood The following probability classes will be used: 0% (= 0-5%) 10% (= 5-15%) 20% (= 15-25%) 30% (= 25-35%) 40% (= 35-45%) 50% (= 45-55%) 60% (= 55-65%) 70% (= 65-75%) 80% (= 75-85%) 90% (= 85-95%) 100% (= 95-100%) FLAG: information about the processing conditionsNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Convective Rainfall Rate (PGE05)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Convective Rainfall Rate (PGE05)OUTPUTS:• CRR rainfall rates expressed in classes• CRR rainfall rates expressed in mm/h (required for hourly accumulations)• CRR Hourly Accumulations• CRR-QUALITY• CRR-DATAFLAGNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)PCPh OUTPUTS:• PCPh Probability of precipitation from 0% to 100% of probability. • PCPh_QUALITY (Parallax info)• PCPh_DATAFLAGCRPh OUTPUTS:• Rainfall rates from 0.0 to 51.0 mm/h with a step of 0.2 mm/h.• CRPh Hourly Accumulations• CRPh Illumination Quality Flag• CRPh _QUALITY• CRPh_DATAFLAGNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Radar (PPI)Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)PCPh cons and pros with respect to PC:CONS:•Only day time•Only for estimated phase•Some dependance on illumination conditionsPROS:•More confidence on the assignment of the precipitation likelihoodPCPCPhNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 201510Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)CRPh cons and pros with respect to CRR:CONS:•Only day time•Only for estimated phase•High dependance on illumination conditions PROS:•Precipitation areas and intensities closer to the radar ones•Improvement of the Cold Rings problem•Detection of smaller precipitation nuclei•Detection of precipitation for warm top cloudsRadar (PPI)CRRCRPhNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 201511Precipitation Products from Cloud Physical Properties (PGE14)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Future Developments• Precipitation algorithms will be adapted to MTG imager• Precipitation algorithms will be improved in order to fully take advantage of MTG benefits• CRR-Ph will be adapted to work with MTG LI• Precipitation algorithms will be adapted to Himawari 8/9 series and GOES-RNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Validation: Traditional MethodsAccuracy Statistics00,511,522,533,544,5MEAN ME MAE RMSECRPh_IQF ≥ 0 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 20 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 40 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 60 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 80 %CRR 3DCategorical Scores0102030405060708090FAR POD CSI PCCRPh_IQF ≥ 0 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 20 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 40 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 60 %CRPh_IQF ≥ 80 %CRR 3DProbability of Detection010203040506070809020% 30% 40% 60% 80%Threshold(%) PCPCPhFalse Alarm Ratio 01020304050607020% 30% 40% 60% 80%Threshold(%) PCPCPhNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Total rain rate in annular bin 0100200300400500600700800900100011000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100Satellite estimation (mm/h)Radar (mm/h)CRR 3DCRPhRain rate average (for rainy pixel) in annular bins01234567890 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Satellite estimation (mm/h)Radar (mm/h)CRR 3DCRPhValidation: Traditional MethodsNWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015AEMET is currently studying the MODE (Method forObject-Based Diagnostic Evaluation) validationmethod that was specifically designed by NCARto validate precipitation fields from numericalmodels.MODE objectively identifies “objects” that arerelevant to a human observer. These objects canbe described geometrically.Several attributes, such as location, shape,orientation, and size, can be compared.More info:http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/docs/users_guide/MET_Users_Guide_v1.0.pdfValidation: Spatial Methods (MODE)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Validation: Spatial Methods (MODE)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015Validation: Spatial Methods (MODE)NWCSAF 2015 Users Workshop24 – 26 February 2015NWC SAF GEO Precipitation ProductsThank you for your attention!

NWC SAF GEO Precipitation Products: Present Status and Future Developments

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NWC SAF GEO Precipitation Products: Present Status and Future Developments

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