Shealy, Tripp

English

Old Dominion University

Old Dominion UniversityODU Digital CommonsJuly 20, 2018: Designing for Resilience Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/FloodingAdaptation Forum7-20-2018Why Don't We Build Above the Minimum Code?And What We Can Do About It.Tripp ShealyFollow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/hraforum_21Before teaching at Virginia Tech I worked for Crowder Construction and assisted FEMA during super storm Sandy.7/23/18 1~MA Not only are more severe storms expected to continue but sea level in is expected to rise between 1 and 3+ feet by as early as 2060 (World Resources Institute 2014).Mid-Atlantic by 1.5 ft Gulf Coast by 2 ft West Coast by 1.5 ftBy 2060 sea level is expected to rise 1.5-2ft The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) recurrent flooding study for Hampton Roads Virginia found a 1.5-foot rise in sea level and a 3-foot storm surge (Intergovernmental Pilot Project 2016).Based on Proceedings of the National Academy of Science and NOAA forecasts, without any interventions the TED Constant Center will be under water in nearly 4 decades. 3https://choices.climatecentral.org/#14/38.8680/-77.0497?compare=temperatures&carbon-end-yr=2100&scenario-a=warming-4&scenario-b=warming-2Year 2060-2100lu on While private property is at threat so are government and military facilities. US Coast Guard is most vulnerable due to number and proximity of bases close to the sea. p on R This is a problem because Coast Guard, and others are the first responders during natural disaster events. Disruptions can lead to delayed response. Coast Guardsmen used Google Docs to keep track of incoming phone calls, due to outages on base. Hurricane Harvey, 2017 How is the Coast Guard preparing facilities for the effects of sea level rise? And what more can we do about it?1. Interviews with Coast Guard civil engineers in Hampton Roads 2. Case studies of renovations to Coast Guard bases3. Review identified barriers to more resilient design4. Possible solutionsSource: Civil Engineering Manual COMDTINST M11000.11BWe used a mix methods approach of interviews and content analysis to understand how the Coast Guard in Hampton Roads is preparing for sea level rise. Cn.1<.t Gu,1rd Civil fnR•n«•t•r•nP. Progr ,'lffl Org.'ln1;."!t ,on To confirm the interview response, 20 facilities maintenance projects were chosen from the Coast Guard database at random, 17 were used. Natural disaster Number of casesWind 7Flood 10Total 17The projects range in cost from $575,000 to $5.5 million and all occurred between 2014 -2016.Hangar repairsOffice spacestorm water systemNew HVACReplace bulkhead Runway Repair Shore	Infrastructure	Logistics	Center	(SILC)What	is	being	done	day	to	day	to	account	for	sea	level	rise?• “Nothing,	mostly	fixing	broken	things”Is	there	any	maintenance	being	done	to	adapt	to	sea	level	rise?• “SLR/resiliency	isn't	really	a	big	deal	until	after	a	storm	hits.”• “Resiliency	work	is	a	side	project,	collateral	duty.	Not	a	primary	job.”Coast ,Guard Civil Engineering P,rogram Organization Facility	Design	and	Constructions	Center	(FD&CC)Can	you	describe	the	additional	job	duties	that	climate	change	will	entail	for	you?• “The	impacts	of	sea	level	rise	needs	to	be	addressed	corporately.”• “Coast	Guard	fails	to	consider	these	issues	at	the	highest	levels.”1Coas't ,Guard Civll 1 :nginaering IPf'logmm ,oramniz.ation Facility	Design	and	Constructions	Center	(FD&CC)Can	you	describe	the	design	process	to	account	for	natural	disasters:• “We	only	consider	what	is	in	federal,	state,	and	local	design	codes.”• “I	am	hesitant	to	design	above	code	because	it	will	be	seen	as	over-designing	and	possibly	seen	as	wasteful	spending”	1Coas't ,Guard Civll 1 :nginaering IPf'logmm ,oramniz.ation Out of the 17 projects only two included above code recommendations to protect against flooding. Natural disaster event Number of cases Resiliency options presentedCases that selected the resilient construction optionWind 7 0 0Flood 10 2 2Total 17 2 2The two maintenance projects that met resilience options were due to previous damage. Station Base Mobile, ALStorm Sewer was undersized leading to flooding during 10-year storm events. Two alternatives were proposed for this project. Alternative #1: Replace the storm sewer with the same size pipingAlterative #2: Triple the sizing of piping to exceed 100 year rain fall eventLow lying area, little drainage, surrounded by impervious surfaces, and ocean Coast Gu s Station Brant Point, Nantucket, MAStation suffered continue flooding events causing shortages in electrical and mechanical systems Two alternatives proposed: Alternative #1: Maintenance repairs, “helpful” but would not solve the flooding problem. The electrical and mechanical systems below flood elevation would continue to be subject to expensive flood damage Alternative #2: The flood zone currently is above the location where the critical electrical and mechanical systems are placed.The two maintenance projects that met resilience options were due to previous damage. The additional 15 projects did not include a resilience alternative. Station Base Los Angeles, CADock mooring facilities reaching end of useful life. Cost: $694KTwo alternatives proposed: Alterative #1: Do nothing - allow bulkhead wall to deteriorate, to the point where it needs to be replaced. Alternative #2: Conduct maintenance prescribed in project scope (preferred alternative)No additional recommendations were made to prepare the facility for change in sea level rise, more severe storms.The additional 15 projects did not include a resilience alternative. Station Base San Francisco, CA Heavy rains caused landslide into an existing building on the base. Damage occurred to the building and was deemed unsafe for operation. Cost: $575KNo alternatives provided: Repair barrier wall and add netting and anchorages. No additional recommendations were made to prepare the facility for change in sea level rise, more severe storms, or rain events.The additional 15 projects did not include a resilience alternative. Station Base Cape May, NJDemolishing 2 existing HVAC systems and installing new system. Current HVAC system are causing mold and poor indoor air quality.Cost: $1.7 MillionThree alternatives provided:Alternative #1: New HVAC systemAlterative #2: Mold remediationAlternative #3: Do nothingBased on documents: sea level rise, increased heat, flooding events, etc. were not considered when designing location of HVAC system, vents, etc. l'-- -- -_---- ------=----- -1 Station Brant Point, Nantucket, MAStation suffered continue flooding events causing shortages in electrical and mechanical systems Cost: $1.8 MillionTwo alternatives proposed: Alternative #1: Maintenance repairs to electrical and mechanical systems below flood elevation but would continue to be subject to expensive flood damage. Alternative #2: The flood zone currently is above the location where the critical electrical and mechanical systems are placed. Move systems above flood zone. The two maintenance projects that met resilience options were due to previous damage. • “The lack of resilience planning is a function of the process. Immediate concerns are addressed as quickly as possible.”• “It is easier for Coast Guard engineers to justify longer, more expensive maintenance projects that incorporate resiliency when the effects of climate change are already being felt.” • “More cost-effective strategy is to react once a natural disaster occurs instead of spending scare resources upfront.”• “New construction, planning phases are in place but maintenance projects are not subjected to the same requirements.” , • • ! , - t I t I r " I f , , ~ ' 1 r • • • r I r ·, j • ; " 1 I ~ • 1 I T ! I • , ' t T ! • , ~ , • • I 1 Previous research aligns with out findings. Coast Guard prepares for the effects of sea level rise during reconstruction of damaged facilities. • Out of 15 rebuilt facilities none went above code for wind design• 5 Out of 15 built above FEMA 100 year flood elevation (Healy et al., 2016)Coast Guard Station Gulfport after Katrina was rebuilt to withstand a category four hurricane ($17 million)Image capture: Sep 2007 © 2014 GoogleStreet View - Sep 2007101 Kissam AveNew YorkHow do we change from building back stronger to preparing during regular maintenance?$700,000 replacing pier facilities $575,000 replacing rock catchment $1.7M to replace HVACFuture Research: What would the cost have been to include resilience upgrades at the time of maintenance? What is the effect of requiring a maintenance alternative? Do not have to do it but have to provide one as an option. How do we change from building back stronger to preparing during regular maintenance?Image capture: Sep 2007 © 2014 GoogleStreet View - Sep 2007101 Kissam AveNew YorkCurrent Building Practice More ResilientSuper Storm SandyChallenges are not just engineering but behavioral: • Temporal discounting • Uncertainty • Inertia/Status Quo• AwarenessTemporal discounting: prefer $100 today instead of $120 a month from now.• Temporal discounting contributes to • obesity epidemic (Barlow et al 2016), • bankruptcies from balloon mortgages (Hershfield et al, 2012), • widespread insufficient retirement savings (Feigenbaum et al, 2015)27Please use the scale below to indicate your preferred retirement allocation: Current annual income XX%XXRetirement income XX%Please indicate your preferred design choice based on the following conditions: Current Miami in 2018 Expected Miami in 2050 20 graduate engineering students received either the vivid images of today or the future. 7/23/1810 Envision is 60 credits, 5 categories. QUALITY OF L FE 13 Credits QL3.1 PreSfflle Hisooric & Clilrural Resil!urces. QL3.2 Presffie Vie',~ & Local Character QL3J Emancf F\Ublic Space QLO.O Innovate or Exceed Cmil lajl:li~nls lEADERSHIP 10 Credits 1 COLLABORATION RESOURCE ALLOCATIO 14 Credits 1 MATERIJ\LS lD .1 Pr-0'1ide E:ffeclwe l.eal!etShi,p & Oornrn .meiY RAU llellooe Nel Embooie!II EllEfID' LD .2 Estiblish A ~staina ity Management S~.em RA1 .2 SIJppart inab e Prooorffllffll Ptactires lD .3 Fosler Collabarllliln ,& Tearrrnrt LD .4 Provide far Sl\3telloJller lmm'h'eme 2 MANAGEMENT LD2.1 Pllrsu:e By-Praduel Symrgy Qpp mi ties L02.2 rrnprov-!l rnfrastru ure rntegra ioo RA1 .3 Use llecycle!II MaiErials RAH Use lle!lio.nal Matmals RA1.5 Dimt Waste Fram l;,iiil RAts llellooe Exclrra.ed Marelials non Sire RA1.7 PIMe rl:f Deai .ruction & li:qclil~ 2 ENmGY 3 PLANNING RA2.1 llellooe EllEfID' Oonsum, ·an LD3.1 Pai for l.oo!t-Tam anilo.ring & Mainlenance RA2.2 Use llaiewable □ni:f!D' LD3.2 Adimss Cooflictilg Re!Jlllafmns & Rlliciet LD3.3 Extelld Useful Life l.DO.D l'nnova.e ar E:t:cEed Cre Aeqtirernam; RA2.3 C~n & oonitor EnefID! S)'&ems 3WATER RA3.1 .eel Fresh Waler Aralla ily RA3.2 llellooe Pa Wala COOSIJl114llicm RA3.3 MonihlrwaterS)'S!ems 1 SITING NA URAL WORLD 15 Credits tfWU Prfserv-!l Prime Habita. 1/1.2 Pra!ect Weilanils & Surface Water 1/1.3 Preserv-!l Prime Farmlaoo ml/1.4 Avoid Mterre Geolog,y ml/1.5 Preserv.e floo~lail Functimis CLIMATE AND RS 8 Credits 1 EMISSIONS CR1 . Redure Q-eaihouse Gas Emissio~ CR11 Reduce Air ufool Emi.ssilris 2 RESILIE CE CR2.. Asses.s Clilll.e Threat ml/1.6 A'llll id U.nsuifab Deiielaimol oo .eQ Slopes CRU AvL'id iraJJS & "'dllnera ilies ml/1.7 Preserv.e Greenfields 2 LAND+WATER 1/2.1 Mlll~ Slormwaler tfil/2.2 llelliroe Fmcide & Fertilizer IIQpacls ml/2.3 Prel!!nt SUrn!:e & Grcmfwaler Conlarninatian 3 BIODIVERSl1Y ml/3.1 Preserve Species Bimi rersily ml/3.2 Oontrol lmrasive Species tfl'/3.3 .aie Disb.ulied Soils tfl'/3.4 ·n · ·n \\ d & So · ce \\later funciians. CR2-J PreJ1,11e far l.oog-Tet111 A1faplatil iy CR2..4 PreJ1,11•e for Sharl-Temi Hazris CR2..5 Marnllle Hea lstlnd BreeiS CRO.O l111twale tt fxcee!II Crei!it Requiremen, Vivid images of the future helped improve decision outcomes. 7/23/18 30Envision Credits Control (2018) Vividness Intervention (2050)Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 7.8 17.3Avoid traps and vulnerabilities 5.9 11.6Prepare for long term adaptability 10.6 14.9Prepare for short term hazards 6.2 18.2Maintain wetland and surface water functions 1.9 6.8Prepare for long term monitoring and maintenance  4.6 5.5Extend useful life  8.0 9.1Average Total Amount of Envision Points  44.9 83.3 Realism( 2D#rendering# 3D#display# 3D#head#mount#2018#! !! Co rol Vvid 0 20 0 80 00 120 oint 7/19/18 307/23/18 3119 0/ /1 Uncertainty and risk: lack of data for accurate probability or given standard deviation of probability• To really know what a 100 year rain event is, you need at least have twice as many years of data –200 for a 100 year event.• 2,000 for a 1,000 year event projection. • Modelers assume weather in the past is like the weather of today.• The past and future resemble the present.32Year 2060-2100Use framing to change perspective of uncertainty How we set up the choice, shapes behavior.How we frame the information can change perspective.• A 1% chance of flooding in a year (100year flood) is about a 26% chance of flooding during a 30 year mortgage.)• A 0.2% chance of flooding (500 year flood) is a 6% chance of flooding during a 30 year mortgage. • This is higher than the 4% risk of a structural fire in the house, but no one questions the need for fire insurance.7/23/18 34Inertia: Set better defaults 4.2527.517.171299.989899.9199.99799.599.6485.90102030405060708090100DenmarkNetherlandsUnitedKingdomGermanyAustriaBelgiumFranceHungaryPolandPortugalSwedenDefault Choice: organ donors (Johnson and Goldstein, 2003).Opt-inOpt-out15% donor rate93% donor rateChanges perception of social norm. Opt-in or opt-out using statewide code: (IBHS, 2013; Monte, 2012). No Default = No CodeDefault = Statewide codeOpt-inOpt-out□ _ _ _ J _ _ - - _ _ _ J _ _ - - _ _ _ _ L _ , - - - - , _ _ _ L _ , - - - - , _ _ _ _ L _ , . . . . . . . . , _ _ _ _ _ l _ _ _ _ _ _ - - , _  □Included a question on Coast Guard procurement form asking for pay back period. 7/23/18 36051015202530Most Efficient Efficient Less Efficient Least EfficientHVAC ScenarioWithout Calculating Pay back PeriodCalculating Pay back Period051015202530MostEfficientEfficient Less Efficient LeastEfficientLights ScenarioWithout Calculating Pay back PeriodCalculating Pay back Periodt,-;;;;;;;;::;-;:;:=:;:;-;;;::;:::;;;;===.,-----------i• C n ■ I ■ ■ •- •- I~ _ 1 _ __ 1~ ■ ■ Maintenance is an opportunity to build in resilience, yet to frequently we are waiting for a disaster to occur.Image capture: Sep 2007 © 2014 GoogleStreet View - Sep 2007101 Kissam AveNew YorkCurrent Building Practice More ResilientSuper Storm SandyChallenges are not just engineering but behavioral: • Temporal discounting • Uncertainty • Inertia/Status Quo$700,000 replacing pier facilities $575,000 replacing rock catchment$1.7M to replace HVAC4.2527.517.171299.98 98 99.91 99.997 99.5 99.6485.90102030405060708090100DenmarkNetherl andsUni tedKi ngdomGermanyAust ri aBe lg iumFr anceHungar yPola ndPort ug alSweden

Why Don\u27t We Build Above the Minimum Code? And What We Can Do About It.

https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&amp;context=hraforum_21

Why Don\u27t We Build Above the Minimum Code? And What We Can Do About It.

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