Presentación realizada en el Foro de Usuarios Aeronáuticos, celebrado el 18 de noviembre de 2015 en los Servicios Centrales de AEMET en Madri

Morata Gasca, Ana

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Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

Predicción de nieblas con MUSC Ana MorataÁrea de InnovaciónDepartamento de Desarrollo y AplicacionesWhat is FOG?• WMO Definition:“Suspension of very small, usually microscopic water droplets in the air, generally reducingthe horizontal visibility at the Earth´ssurface to less than 1km”• Forecaster definition (Roach, W.T., 1994):“Fog occurs whenever the horizontal visibility falls below 1km. Cloud base descending to ground level is also experienced as fog.”FOG: A visibility reductionParameters in Fog Formation• Important Parameters in Fog Formation:• Cooling of moist air by radiative flux divergence• Vertical mixing of heat and moisture• Vegetation• Horizontal and vertical wind• Heat and moisture transport in soil• Advection• Topographic effect• Once the fog has formed:• Longwave radiative cooling at fog top• Gravitational droplet settling• Fog microphysics• Shortwave radiationOBJETIVOS• El objetivo final de esta línea de trabajo es la puesta en funcionamiento del modelo numérico unidimensional MUSC para la predicción operacional de nieblas en los aeródromos españoles.• El primer paso es la adaptación del modelo MUSC para la predicción de nieblas sobre el Aeropuerto Adolfo Suárez Madrid-BarajasOverview of MUSC • MUSC (Modèle Unifie Simple Colonne) is a single column version of the HARMONIE 38h1.2 weather prediction system.• MUSC was first derived from the full IFS (Integrated Forecast System, maintained and updated by ECMWF) by Sylvie Malardel et al. (Meteo France).• Presently, HARMONIE MUSC is maintained within the international HIRLAM-ALADIN cooperation and available for research via the hirlam.org code repository.• MUSC allows testing and comparison of AROME, ALARO, ARPEGE and elements of ECMWF and HIRLAM physical parameterizations in a unified environment.• Model includes– ”All parameterized physics”– Radiation, turbulence, shallow convection,clouds, precipitation …– Surface processes (SURFEX) •Model excludes– All large-scale dynamics that depend on thehorizontal distribution variables – Horizontal advection, pressure gradient force,large-scale vertical motion– The excluded terms can be provided to MUSC as prescribed ”forcing”ZSurfaceTop of theatmosphere(Räisänen and Rontu, 2013)MUSC: Modèle Unifié Simple Colonne(≈ 1D version of the HARMONIE 38h1.1 / AROME NWP model) Overview of MUSC Overview of MUSC input and output(Räisänen and Rontu, 2013)MUSCMUSCInitial conditionsIn atmosphereInitial conditionsAt surface / in groundTime and coordinatesSurface propertiesAtmospheric forcing(optional)Time series of atmosphericand near-surface weatherCASE STUDY:A 24- hours simulation for Madrid - AirportDATE: January 7th 2013Initial Experiment setup• Surface parameters of the reference experiment• Initial atmospheric perfil: HARMONIE 3D• Applied forcings: None(Geostrophic wind, horizontal temperature dynamic tendency, horizontal wind dynamic tendency, horizontal humidity dynamic tendency, vertical velocity)• 60 second time step; 24-hours model runs.• Number TOTAL of verticals levels: 81• Number of verticals levels in PBL: 45Nlev stratosphere = 8Nlev PBL = 45RESULTADOSRESULTADOSRESULTADOSRESULTADOSRESULTADOSCONCLUSIONES• MUSC no reproduce con suficiente fidelidad las observaciones. • Es necesario profundizar en: • Parametrizaciones físicas• Esquemas físicos de superfie (surfex)Siguientes pasos ...• Trabajar en el desarrollo de los modelos numéricos à comprensión de los procesos físicos durante los casos de niebla (Parametrizacionesfísicas)• Mejorar los datos observacionales introduciendo el análisis de datos de satélite.• Introducir técnicas estadísticas de predicción por conjuntos en la predicción de nieblas.• Cada aeródromo deberá adaptar MUSC a sus características fisiográficas y atmosféricas.Operational Models in Europe• AUSTRIA- Model name: ALADIN-AUSTRIA- Resolution: 9.6 km horizontal, 45 vertical layers- Model domain: Europe- Boundary values: global model ARPEGE- Dynamics: Hydrostatic- Turbulence: Louis scheme- Visibility:Post-processingin case of T-inversiongradient RH and T• DENMARK- Model name: DMI-HIRLAM- Resolution: 16 km horizontal, 40 vertical layers- Model domain: Europe- Boundary values: ECMWF analyses and forecasts- Dynamics: Hydrostatic- Turbulence: Pronostic TKE- Visibility: MOS approach deppending on ground measurements and model forecastsNon - Operational Models in Europe• GERMANY- Model name: LM-PAFOG (COSMO-FOG)- Resolution: 2.8 km horizontal, 40 vertical layers- Model domain: 280 x 280 km limited area- Boundary values: COSMO-EU- Dynamics: Non hydrostatic- Turbulence: Louis scheme- Visibility: Diagnostic variable• SWITZERLAND- Model name: NMM-PAFOG- Resolution: 6 km horizontal, 45 vertical layers- Model domain: 160 x 160 km limited area- Boundary values: NMM 13 km- Dynamics: Non hydrostatic- Turbulence: Pronostic TKE- Visibility: complex relation of moist forecasted parameter at 2mPara terminar…• GRACIAS a Daniel Martín Pérez (Área de Modelización)• Preguntas…?• Comentarios …?

Predicción de nibelas con MUSC

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/9300/1/Nieblas_AMorata_ForoUsuAer2015.pdf

Predicción de nibelas con MUSC

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