Póster presentado en: 39th EWGLAM & 24nd SRNWP Meetings celebrado del 2 al 5 de octubre de 2017 en Reading, Inglaterra.A verification of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI),direct horizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI)forecasted by the Arome-Harmonie and ECMWF models has been conducted as part of the H2020 PreFlexMS Project

Calvo Sánchez, Francisco Javier

Casado Rubio, José Luis

Díez Muyo, María Victoria

García-Moya, José Antonio

Martín Pérez, Daniel

Martínez Marco, Isabel

Morales Martín, Gema

Padorno, María Elena

Revuelta, María Aránzazu

Robles González, Cristina

Santos Atienza, Inés

Viana Jiménez, Samuel

English

Padorno Prieto, María Elena

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

Assimilation of humidity measurements of E-AMDAR.NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)39th EWGLAM & 24nd SRNWP Meetings, 2rd/5th Oct. 2017 Reading, ECMWFHARMONIE-AROME v40h1.1 is Regular Cycle of Reference, RCR usedby HIRLAM Consortium to monitor the quality of the reference system:• 2.5 km runs 8 times per day with a forecast length of 48 hours for 2geographical domains (Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands).• ALADIN NH dynamics and 1-hr boundaries from ECMWF• 3DVar analysis with 3hr cycle incl. ATOVS and GNSS obs.HARMONIEAROME SUITEPreliminary approach for the use of aerosol fields in HAMONIE-AROME• The boundary conditions are taken from the C-IFS model (60 vertical levels).• Sea Salt and sulphate mixing ratio fields have been included in HARMONIE-AROME 40h11 in order to modify the fixed values of CCN over sea and land used in the microphysic parameterization.• These fields are exclusively advected inside HARMONIE-AROME.• The previous values of CCN are taken as maximum values for the activated condensation nuclei in this preliminary approach.• Distinction between sea and land condensation nuclei is skipped.Conclusions:Little impact in the precipitation for the cases studied.Parametrization needed for the activated condensation nuclei.Mesoscale EPS γ-SREPSjgarciamoyaz@aemet.esγ-SREPS Mesoscale EPS at 2.5 km resolutionbased on a Multi-model and  multi-BC approach • Multi-boundaries: • ECMWF, GFS, CMC, JMA, ARPEGE• Multi-model:• HARMONIE-AROME, HARMONIE-ALARO,WRF-ARW, NEMS (WRF-NMMB)Daily run, 36 hours forecast at 00 & 12 UTC at ECMWF Cray from March 2016To become operational in summer 2018 in the new AEMET BULL Computerfour times a day (00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC)Interactive web page for operational forecasters (in development)Iberian collaboration with the Portuguese Met Service (IPMA)Probabilistic Products14 Sept 2017 00 UTC H+36Future:• LETKF for IC perturbations• Upgrade WRF-ARW to version 3.9• Upgrade NEMS to version 3.0• SPPT for model perturbations• Statistical Calibration for surface parameters• Special calibration using Machine Learning Techniques Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the local HPC.• These runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System• 3-hr  cycles including assimilation of  GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data.• Improved monitoring and verification of the system • Clear added value on near surface variables compared with models of larger scale (HIRLAM and ECMWF)• Significant improvement of precipitation forecasts but the model tends to underestimate summer convection. 1 km forecast over some coastal areas are produced operationally with added value for wind compared to 2.5 km simulations. Verification of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) shows RMSE of 15% and 30%respectively (slightly worst than ECMWF for the same cycle). Cloud verification against ceilometer data shows underestimation of cloud cover and overestimation of cloud base. A 2.5 km multi-model ensemble system is close to a operational stateHighlightsGHI and DNI verificationcroblesg@aemet.es, mrevueltam@aemet.es,  jcasador@aemet.es,imartinezm@aemet.esA verification of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), directhorizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI)forecasted by the Arome-Harmonie and ECMWF models hasbeen conducted as part of the H2020 PreFlexMS project(http://www.preflexms.eu). The predictions have beencompared with observations taken in several stations of theAEMET Radiation Network, for the period Mar 2015 - Feb2017. As an example, results for Badajoz (38.88N 7.01W)are shown, taking different accumulation periods (hourly todaily).The rRMSE is around 20% for hourly and 15% for dailyaccumulated values of GHI, and 40% for hourly and 30% fordaily accumulated values of DNI. It has been found that ingeneral the ECMWF model performs slightly better thanArome-Harmonie, though the bias for Arome-Harmonie islowerPeriod: sep, 2016- ago 2017a) T2m (STDV,BIAS). Clear improvement of HARM-AROME(red) against ECMWF (green). AIB has thebiggest problems in winter with a clear negativebias.b) ETS of 10 m wind speed for different categories:The improvement is clear for wind speeds above 5m/sc) Scatter-plots, 6 hr AccPcp, for HARM-AROME (left)and ECMWF (right). As expected the intensities arelower for the ECMWF. In general ECMWF producesmoother fields with a tendency to overestimate theprecipitation area.SAMOA Project consists of a meteorological and oceanographical support system for the Spanish National Harbour Authorities. The meteorological module aims to provide a very high resolution, 1km, 48hours forecast for surface weather variables, especially winds, over harbour influence areas.HARMONIE-AROME 40h1.1- 1km resolution and 30” timestep.- IFS 0.1o nesting.- Dynamical adaptation.- Original HARATU turbulence (update reversed).KEY contributions:- Predictor-corrector scheme.- Semi-lagrangian horizontal diffusion (SLHD) applied to hydrometeors and spectral variables but temperature.Evolution of 10 m windspeed 6h averaged overthe Mediterranean area:Operational 2.5 km HARM-AROME (red), SAMOA 1.0 km HARM-AROME configutarion (green) and observations (blue).Scatter plot of 10m wind observations-forecastsevents for operational 2.5 km HARM-AROME (left)and for SAMOA 1.0 km HARM-AROME (right) overthe Mediterranean area during a convective episode(12-18 January 2017).Conclusions- Good results for convective episodes and long periods at all areas.- Need of predictor-corrector strategy for stability in dynamical adaptationmode.- Very significant impact of SLHD at all areas.- Domain dependent improvement with reversed HARATU update.- Successful 500m first tests.10 m wind speed verification againstobservations over the Mediterranean areaduring a convective episode (12-18 January2017):(left) Standard deviation (*) and Bias(□) function of the forecast length and(right) Equitable threat score (ETS) fordifferent categories. Individual impact ofthe reversed HARATU update (green) andSLHD activation (blue) respect to the tagversion (red) and full SAMOA configuration(purple).--- HARM 2.5km   --- HARM 1.0km   --- OBSHARM 2.5km  - OBS HARM 1.0km  - OBS--- 40h1.1    --- 40h1.1_notUPD    --- 40h1.1_SLHD    --- 40h1.1_SAMOAHigh Resolution Forecastisantosa@aemet.es, mpadornop@aemet.es, imartinezm@aemet.esEvaluation of next cycle’s model bias in climate mode.Next cycle of our HARMONIE-AROME system will use new surface physics options available inSURFEX 8 for snow (Explicit Snow scheme), soil ( Diffusion scheme) and energy budget (Multi-Energy Balance) parameterizations.New setup will be tested in “climate mode” over different domains. Model output climatology willbe compared to reference data. Reference datasets validation: UERRA reanalysis (T2m, RH,MSLP, wind), AEMET’s 5km objective analysis (pcp), ESA CCI Soil Moisture, etc.Parameter tuning, namelist changes and/or code modifications will be made in order to try toreduce the identified biases.The resulting model configuration will be used for coupling to surface data assimilation.Surface Developmentssvianaj@aemet.esEstimated lightning density compared with observations for two model versions.Convection is very sensitive to model setting showing its stochastic behaviour.Operational 40h1 version (AIB) tends to produce smother fields than cycle38h1(IB38). Although overall scores are better for 40h1, forthe summer there is a clear underestimation of the convective activity (plotscourtesy of José A. Sosa)• Surface data assimilation with optimal interpolation.• AROME physics: Explicit deep convection, SURFEX and ICE3 microphysics• Unified scheme for shallow convection (EDMFM)•Run in BULL-ATOS supercomputer 7760 processors with hyperthreadingOperational Verificationgmoralesm@aemet.esConvectionfcalvos@aemet.esClouds Verificationdmartinp@aemet.esComparison of cloud variables with ceilometer observations.Cloud base height and cloud cover have been obtained from ceilometer-network at AEMET and compared with HARMONIE-AROME (cycle 40) outputs.Statistics for 1 month (December 2016) show a positive bias in the cloud base height, probably due to lack of low clouds in the model.Cloud cover from ceilometer is based on the algorithm by Larsson and Esbjörn (1995) and Wauben.The different character of the cloud cover obtained from the ceilometers to the one from synopobservations, gives different values for the statistical parameters but comparable results.Conclusions:Ceilometer network isvaluable for verificationof the model. Update of the work in progress. Aerosols       dmartinp@aemet.esMachine Learning Methods for airportsProb Verif:T2m & u10ma) b)c)E-AMDAR q sensormdiezm@aemet.esThere are a lack of humidity upper airobservations over South-West of theIberia Peninsula, so the humidity E-AMDARobservations are very valuable.Actually are testing:• Technical issues.• Bias of the observations.• The usage of obsmonmonitoring tool.TEMPS available over theoperational domain (AIB)at 12 UTC. Lisbon andMadeira stations onlymake observations at 12UTC.All the E-AMDAR bulletinswith humidity information the26th of September of 2017.This map is obtained atE-AMDAR monitoring portalhttps://eucos.dwd.de

NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain): 39th EWGLAM & 24nd SRNWP Meetings

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/7683/1/Poster_2017_EWGLAM_SRNWP.pdf

NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain): 39th EWGLAM & 24nd SRNWP Meetings

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