Reconstruction Of Paleo-Hydrologic Data For Vulnerability Assessment Of Water Resources Systems

Abstract

Tree-ring chronologies are a rich source of information of past climate-driven non-stationarities in hydrologic variables. They are typically directly related to available water in respective years, thereby providing a basis for paleo-hydrology reconstruction. This study investigates the time series of tree-ring chronologies, with the objective of identifying the spatiotemporal patterns and extents of non-stationarities, which are essentially representations of past “climate changes”. This study also generates ensembles of moving-average streamflow time series for the centuries prior to the period of observational record. The major headwater tributaries of the Saskatchewan River basin (SaskRB), the main source of surface water in the Canadian Prairie Provinces, are used as the case study. This extended abstract gives a brief summary of the methodology and some examples of the results. The analyses and results show how the reconstruction of paleo-hydrology broadens the understanding of hydrologic characteristics of a basin beyond the limited observational records, and therefore, provides a basis for more reliable assessment and management of available water resources