Stafford, Sarah L.

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Old Dominion University

Old Dominion UniversityODU Digital CommonsMay 11, 2018: Adaptation Policy Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/FloodingAdaptation Forum2018Screening for Local Business and GovernmentVulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal VirginiaSarah L. StaffordCollege of William & MaryFollow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/hraforum_20This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum at ODU DigitalCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in May 11, 2018: Adaptation Policy by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For moreinformation, please contact digitalcommons@odu.edu.Repository CitationStafford, Sarah L., "Screening for Local Business and Government Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Virginia" (2018). May 11,2018: Adaptation Policy. 8.https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/hraforum_20/8Screening for Local Business and Government Vulnerabilityto Sea-Level Rise in Coastal VirginiaSarah L. Stafford Professor of Economics, Public Policy and LawCollege of William and MaryVirginia is in trouble…10 9 - 8 00 00 7 0 ~ 6 z .t:'.' 5 -QJ 4 > QJ 3 .....J ro QJ 2 V'l C 1 ro QJ ~ 0 -1 -2 1970 Sea Level in Virginia Historic data and projections ... ······· ····· ... .... .... .... .... ... ... .... ... 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Lots of Property at RiskÜ Coastal Virginia is home to almost 5 million people.Ü Over 50,000 homes worth over $17 billion in property value sit on land less than five feet above the current high tide line in Coastal Virginia. Ü About 200,000 homes worth almost $55 are less than nine feet above high tide, and under the highest SLR predictions, we could be there by the end of the century.Goal of this ExerciseÜ Using screening metrics to identify localities whose local economy and government could be vulnerable to natural disasters stemming from climate change, as well as long-term sea-level rise. Ü Screening measures can be easily updated using publicly available data.Ü Methodology is transparent to staff, elected officials and citizens. Potential Indicators of Business and Local Economic VulnerabilityÜ Economic Diversity: HHI of 2-digit NAICS industriesÜ Percentage of Small Businesses: employment at business with <20 employeesÜ Presence of Nonemployer Establishments Ü Percentage of Retail and Wholesale TradeÜ Percentage of Tourism BusinessesÜ Percentage of Leisure Oriented Businesses : arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodations and food serviceÜ Percentage of Land-Dependent Businesses: agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and real estate Ü Trends in Economic Conditions: percent change in payroll from 2010 to 2015Localities that Cross Business and Local Economic Vulnerability Thresholds (Table 2)BE4: High BE6: High BEl: BE2: High Significant Percentage of BES: High Percentage BE8: Lack of Percentage Presence of Retail and Percentage of Leisure Declining Economic of Small ~ Wholesale of Tourism Oriented Dependent Economic Diversi Businesses Establishments Trade Businesses Businesses Businesses Conditions X X X X X Northumberland X X X X X X X X X Poquoson X Colonial Heights X X Gloucester, Hanover, Prince George X Williamsburg X X Northampton X X James Ci , York Potential Indicators of Local Government VulnerabilityÜ Net Position per Capita: net assets per capita Ü Percent of Expenses Spent on Health and WelfareÜ Percent of Revenues from Tourism Ü Percent of Revenues from Property TaxÜ Net Position to Capital Assets Localities that Cross Local Government Exposure Thresholds (Table 3)Localities Isle of Wight Fairfax (County), Prince William King and Queen Colonial Heights, Williamsburg Charles City, King William, Northumberland, Surry Richmond C-oun-Gl : Net Position per Ca ita X X G2: Pct. Exp. Health and Welfare X G3: Pel Rev. from Tourism X G4.: Pct. Rev. from Property Tax X X Position to Capital Asset Ratio X X Physical Vulnerability IndexÜ Index composed of five equally weighted components for each census tract:Ü Percent of the census tract with elevation <10 ft. above sea level.Ü Volume of land between sea level and 10 ft. above sea level relative to the area of land between these two thresholds.Ü Percentage of land 10 ft. below sea level that is developed.Ü Average wave energy along the tract’s shoreline.Ü Average tidal range along the tracts shoreline, including tidally influenced tributaries .Physical Vulnerability of Coastal Virginia Coastal Virginia Localities • 0 -0 .2 • 0.2 - 0.• • 04-0.6 • 0 6 - 0 8 • 0 8 - 1 Localities with Combined Vulnerabilities (Table 5)Highest: >0.5 Very High: 0.4 - 0.5 Moderately High: 0.3 - 0.4 Localities Thresholds Exceeded Matthews (BE2, BE3, BE4, BE5), orthampton (BE6, BE7), Poquoson (BE3) King and Queen (BE3, BE7, BE8, G2), King William (G4), Middlesex (BE2, BES, BE6), Northumberland (BE2, BE3, BE7, G4), York (BE6) Charles City (G4), Colonial Heights (BE4, BE6, G3), Gloucester (B4), James City (B6), King George (Bl), Richmond Coun G5 

Screening for Local Business and Government Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Virginia

https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1006&context=hraforum_20

Screening for Local Business and Government Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Virginia

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