Parris, Adam

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Old Dominion University

Old Dominion UniversityODU Digital CommonsSeptember 19, 2014: Comparing Flooding and SeaLevel Rise Risk Assessment ToolsHampton Roads Sea Level Rise/FloodingAdaptation Forum9-19-2014Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Coastal AdaptationAdam ParrisNOAA Climate Program OfficeFollow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/hraforum_06Part of the Climate Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public AdministrationCommonsThis Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum at ODU DigitalCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in September 19, 2014: Comparing Flooding and Sea Level Rise Risk Assessment Tools by an authorizedadministrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact digitalcommons@odu.edu.Repository CitationParris, Adam, "Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Coastal Adaptation" (2014). September 19, 2014: Comparing Flooding and Sea Level RiseRisk Assessment Tools. 2.https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/hraforum_06/2Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Coastal Adaptation Adam Parris Physical Scientist / RISA Program Manager NOAA Climate Program Office Data Source: Church & White 2011 Sea level is rising - globally Data Source: NOAA CO-OPS Sea level is rising - locally Economic, cultural, and ecological assets near sea level Any amount of SLR will increase coastal flooding Spencer Platt Getty Images Flooding during high tides Photo credits: (left) NOAA Coastal Services Center; (right) Ray Garrido, January 6, 2010, reprinted with permission by the Washington Department of Ecology Charleston, SC Puget Sound, WA Adam Parris, NOAA (Lead) Peter Bromirski, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Virginia Burkett, USGS Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography & USGS Mary Culver, NOAA  John Hall, DOD Radley Horton, Columbia University Kevin Knuuti, USACE Richard Moss, University of Maryland, PNNL Jayantha Obeysekera, South Florida Water Management District Abby Sallenger, USGS Jeremy Weiss, University of Arizona An interagency effort …ARE trajectories of environmental change for the purpose of risk and vulnerability assessment to inform the development of robust adaptation options …ARE NOT predictions or projections of what will happen …ARE NOT formed under the assumption of reducing uncertainty SCENARIOS… Source: Global Business Network  Weeks et al 2011 Why Scenario Planning? Just give me a number – please! Global sea level rise scenarios We have very high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 0.2 meters (8 inches) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100. Confidence Level Possible Contributing Factors Very High Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc), high consensus High Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus Medium Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought Low Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts Risk-based framing Source: NASA Greatest source of uncertainty? Tomorrow there is a chance of rain, but what do you have planned for tomorrow? A decision analogy Higher risk tolerance: •  Greater flexibility to accommodate flooding •  Lower consequence •  Ability to change in near term Lower risk tolerance: •  Little flexibility to accommodate flooding •  Higher consequence •  Inability to change in near term Why such a large scenario range? Boesch, D.F., L.P. Atkinson, W.C. Boicourt, J.D. Boon, D.R. Cahoon, R.A. Dalrymple, T. Ezer, B.P. Horton, Z.P. Johnson, R.E. Kopp, M. Li, R.H. Moss, A. Parris, C.K. Sommerfield. 2013. Updating Maryland’s Sea-level Rise Projections. Special Report of the Scientific and Technical Working Group to the Maryland Climate Change Commission, 22 pp. University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD. Adaptive risk management thru planning NOS	  SLR	  tech	  report	  	  h.p://www.csc.noaa.gov/publica<ons/slc_tech.pdf	  	  Incorpora<ng	  Sea	  Level	  Change	  Scenarios	  at	  the	  Local	  Level	  -­‐	  	  h.p://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/publica<ons/slcscenarios	  	  ✔	  Build regional/local scenarios Visualization of future flood risk Usable science supports choices, actions The SLR Tool for Sandy Recovery was used for: Ø  16 local laws in 2013  Ø  Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Ø  Multi-purpose levee in Lower Manhattan Ø  Beach replenishment and dune construction Ø  Restored wetlands and a tidal barrier in Coney Island Creek Ø  ConEd rate case •  Additional analysis on flood recurrence required •  Rates of Vertical Land Movement (VLM) •  Shoreline change Limiting factors from local/regional view Pacific	  Ins<tute,	  1988	   USGS,	  2009	  Don’t wait for perfect information BCDC,	  2007	  Resilience is a social process RESILIENCE LEARNING Adapt, prepare COOPERATION Local, state, tribal, Fed SCIENCE Credible, relevant EXCHANGE Ideas, info, strategies 

Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Coastal Adaptation

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Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Coastal Adaptation

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