Brigham, Lawson W., Ph.D

English

World Maritime University

  Lawson W. Brigham, PhD  Professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks  Chair, Arctic Council  Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (2004-09) The Drivers of Arctic Shipping & Marine Operations  ShipArctic 2015: A Joint WMU-IMO-Arctic Council Conference World Maritime University, Malmo, Sweden ~  25-27 August 2015  NP 90 E 90 W 180 0  ~ 1500 nm ~ 600 nm Arctic Ocean Bathymetric Chart  Topics ~ ShipArc Presentation:  §  Arctic Perspectives & Global Links §  Changing Arctic Marine Access §  Current Arctic Marine Use §  Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment  (AMSA) ~ Scenarios & Recommendations §  Summary Points & Challenges                                                   The 21st Century Maritime Arctic   • Rapid & Profound Climate Change • Globalization ~ Arctic Natural Resources • Regional & Global Geopolitics • Indigenous Peoples Challenges    U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008 – 13% Undiscovered Oil – 30% Undiscovered Natural Gas – 20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids  “Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal:  Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle” http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/  New Arctic Resource Discoveries  New Arctic Resource Discoveries USGS (2008) Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas Fields Coastal Seas                                   Today’s Maritime Arctic   (200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone)  Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic  (After UNCLOS Article 76) The ILULISSAT Declaration §  Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada, Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA) §  27-29 May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland §  LOS/UNCLOS Provides ‘Solid Foundation’ §  ‘We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean.’ (Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000) Lukoil (Russia) & ConocoPhillips (USA) Operator ~ Sovcomflot (Russia) Builder ~ Samsung (Korea) Technology ~ Finland, Canada & USA The ‘New’ Maritime Arctic Arctic Linkages to the Global Economic System  •  International Fishing (10%) •  Global Marine Tourism Industry •  Hard Minerals ~ Palladium (40%), Nickel (22%),  Diamonds (20%), Platinum (15%), Zinc (10%) •  Estimated Arctic Hydrocarbons ~ Undiscovered Natural Gas (30%) & Oil (13%) •  Potential: Rare Earths (25%), Coal & Fresh Water  •  Regional Trade to Northern Communities & Infrastructure Development SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extents ~ 2007 & 2012 Changing Summer Arctic Sea Ice Coverage ~ 1979-2012 1 January  1 March  1 April  1 June  Winter & Spring Months 2014 & 2015  Septembers 2006-2015  red lines= Polar Class 6  (e.g. commercial icebreaking ships)  blue lines= common open-water ships Septembers 2040-2059  red lines= Polar Class 6  (e.g. commercial icebreaking ships)  blue lines= common open-water ships (“New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury”, L.C. Smith and S.R. Stephenson, PNAS, 2013)  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use Mary River High Grade Iron Ore?? Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper • Hard Minerals World’s    Largest  Zinc Mine World’s Largest   Nickel & Palladium Mine  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use High Grade Iron Ore?? Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper • Hard Minerals • Marine Tourism Arctic Cruising  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use High Grade Iron Ore?? Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper • Hard Minerals • Marine Tourism • Key Fisheries  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use Future High Grade Iron Ore Mine ?? Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper • Hard Minerals • Marine Tourism • Key Fisheries • Oil & Gas  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use Future High Grade Iron Ore Mine ?? • Hard Minerals • Marine Tourism • Key Fisheries • Oil & Gas • Summer Sealift Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper  Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use Future High Grade Iron Ore Mine ?? • Hard Minerals • Marine Tourism • Key Fisheries • Oil & Gas • Summer Sealift • Exploration/Science Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper 25 May 1987 ~ North Pole  Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir ‘A Walk Around the World!’      Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole &  Trans-Arctic Voyages (1977-2014): •   110 Transits to the North Pole       (93 Russia, 7 Sweden, 3 USA,     3 Germany, 3 Canada, 1 Norway)  •  Single Non-summer NP Voyage     (Sibir Voyage May-June 1987)  •  66 Ship Transits to the NP in 2004-2014  •  7 Trans-Arctic Voyages Via the NP (1991,      1994, 1996, 2005) ‘Clear Evidence of Central Arctic Ocean Icebreaker Operations’ ‘Wild Card’ Issue   ~ Summer Northern Sea Route Voyages Linking Arctic Russia & Northern Europe to the Pacific  12 SEPT 31 AUG 7 SEPT    NSR Transits:      2011~41(25 RU+16 Int) 2012~46(19+27) 2013~71(44+28) 2014~53 (22+31)   23 JUL Global Media Coverage :  §  Chinese Cargo Ship Sets Sail for Arctic Short-cut  (11 August 2013 ~ Financial Times) ~ [Notable: Ob River in Nov/Dec  2012 from Hammerfest to Tabeta, Japan] §  100 Times to the North Pole                    (2 August 2013 ~ Barents Observer) §  Northern Sea Route Slated for Massive Growth; A Seasonal Supplement to the Suez Canal  (4 June 2013 ~ The Moscow Times)                                 Winter Maritime Traffic  1 January to 31 May 2013  Marine Exchange of Alaska Summer	  Mari*me	  Traffic	  	  1	  June	  to	  30	  November	  2013	  Marine	  Exchange	  of	  Alaska	  Timeless Arctic Marine Transport:  Indigenous Use of the Arctic Ocean Arctic Council ~ Intergovernmental Forum  AMSA Lead Countries for PAME ~ Canada, Finland & USA AMSA Focus ~ Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection  13 Major Workshops & 14 Town Hall Meetings    Key Challenge ~ Many Non-Arctic Stakeholders  2004 – 2009  Arctic Ministers’ Approval 29 April 2009 ~ Negotiated Text Table of Contents • Executive Summary    with Recommendations • Arctic Marine Geography          Climate & Sea Ice • History • Governance • Current Use/Database • Scenarios to 2020 & 2050 • Human Dimensions • Environmental Impacts ● Infrastructure  www.pame.is AMSA Key Uncertainties for Future  Arctic Marine Transportation •  Stable legal climate •  Radical change in global trade dynamics •  Climate change is more disruptive sooner •  Safety of other routes •  Socio-economic impact of global weather changes •  Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)*** •  Major Arctic shipping disasters*** •  Limited windows of operation (economics) •  Rapid climate change •  Maritime insurance industry •  China, Japan & Korea become Arctic maritime nations •  Transit fees •  Conflict between indigenous & commercial use •  Arctic maritime enforcement •  Escalation of Arctic maritime disputes •  Shift to nuclear energy*** •  New resource discovery •  World trade patterns •  Catastrophic loss  or change in Suez or Panama Canals •  Global agreements on construction rules and standards “Stricken cruise ship off Antarctic evacuated”       MSNBC- 11/23/07 M/V Explorer unstable & ad-hoc stable & rules-based less demand more demand Arctic Race Arctic Saga Polar Lows Polar Preserve       GOVERNANCE RESOURCES       & TRADE High demand and unstable            governance set the stage for an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic wealth and resources. High demand and stable governance lead to a healthy rate of development, includes concern for preservation of Arctic ecosystems & cultures. Low demand and unstable governance bring a murky and under-developed future for the Arctic. Low demand & stable governance slow development in the region while introducing an extensive eco-preserve with stringent “no-shipping zones”. AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April  & July 2007 The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 Scenarios on the Future of  Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS (17) ~ THEMES Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS (17) ~ THEMES • Infrastructure     Deficit • Arctic Marine    Traffic System+ • Environmental ++++  Response Capacity • Hydrographic, Met     & Ocean Data • Indigenous Use+ • Community    Engagement++ • Invasive Species • Eco-Significant Areas++ • Oil Spill Prevention • Marine Mammal Impacts • Reducing Air Emissions • Arctic State Linkages++ • IMO Measures • Uniformity of    Governance • Passenger Ship Safety • SAR Agreement++++ AMSA 2009: •  Baseline Assessment •  Arctic Council Policy Document ~ Negotiated Text Approved 29 April 2009 ~ •  Strategic Guide www.pame.is Summary Points & Challenges •  Arctic Natural Resource Development ~ Main Driver •  Greater Marine Access & Potentially Longer Navigation Seasons •  NSR ~ Seasonal Supplement to the Suez Canal Route ~ Opportunities for Seasonal Trans-Arctic Voyages •  ‘New’ Suez & Panama Canals Add Capacity to Global Routes •  Four Challenges:  (1) Defining/Maintaining the Ice Navigation Season Length  (2) Addressing the Huge Arctic Marine Infrastructure Gap  (3) Implementing the IMO Polar Code & Uniformity  (4) Projecting Plausible Ship Traffic Patterns/Trends  The Maritime Arctic of the Future ~ Complexity Improving Coastal Access 2011 to      2050+  Summer       2020 ?    4-6 Mons. Summer    2040 ? Fishing ? Fishing ? ? Year-  round      2025?     

Drivers of Arctic shipping & marine operation

https://commons.wmu.se/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=shiparc

Drivers of Arctic shipping & marine operation

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