Nykyri, Katariina (Heidi)

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Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Space Traffic Management Conference 2016 Emerging Dynamics Nov 16th, 5:30 PM Space Weather Impacts on Aerospace and Modern Society Katariina (Heidi) Nykyri Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, nykyrik@erau.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.erau.edu/stm Nykyri, Katariina (Heidi), "Space Weather Impacts on Aerospace and Modern Society" (2016). Space Traffic Management Conference. 12. https://commons.erau.edu/stm/2016/posters/12 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Conferences at Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Space Traffic Management Conference by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact commons@erau.edu. Space Weather Impacts on Aerospace and Modern SocietyK. Nykyri, Physical Sciences Department & Centre for Space and Atmospheric Research, COAS, ERAUB. Udrea, Department of Aerospace Engineering, COE, ERAU  Magnetic Field of the Sun• Sun spots are localized regions of strong magnetic flux.• They appear in pairs of opposite polarity.• Origin of Sun’s magnetic field is not fully understood. Solar Activity and Solar Cycle• Maximum activity correlates with # of sunspots.• Time between two maximums is ~ 11 years.Next Gen. Space Weather Prediction Mission• More Warning time needed! Need to develop next gen. space weather models using multi-point, multi-scale measurements in L1.• Cube sats. will be build in ERAU research park. Carrier Spacecraft using industrial partnerships.• Using these measurements, new space weather models canbe created to be able to predict the solar wind structure and magnetic field orientation at the Earth’s Bow Shock nose.Moore, Nykyri and Dimmock,Nature Physics, 2016Space Weather = Series of physical processes starting in the sun, resulting in violent energy release into the heliosphere in forms of radiation, energetic particles and high speed streams and subsequently affecting the current systems and infrastructure in  geospace:  magnetosphere, ionosphere and upper atmosphere, as well as in ground. Space weather can generate geomagnetic stroms which can lead to Induced currents and high energy particles that can harm satellites, aeroplanes,  power grids, pipelines, GPS receivers, communication systems, time stamping of financial transactions etc.On 29th of October 2015, National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan was released. On 13th of October 2016, President’s Executive Order -- Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events.Image credit: NOAA Solar Structures Driving the Space Weather• Prominences, Flares, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME or Ejecta), Solar Energetic Partcicles (SEPs), high speed streams , Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs), ICMEs and ICME sheaths.• Ions from solar activity arrive about 10 minutes later than electronsMagnetic Field of the Earth• Earth’s magnetic field is similar to field of a bar-magnet, dominated by dipolar field.• Solar Wind interaction with the Earth’s field generates, an elongated structure, the magnetosphere. Earth’s Radiation Belts• The outer belt consists mainly of high energy (0.1–10 Mev)electrons, the inner belt mainly of protons above 100 MeVNykyri and Foullon, GRL, 2013Phipps, NASA Phipps, NASAKilpua et al., GRL, 2015Image courtesy of H. HietalaPosner et al., Space Weather, 2009@NASAChaisson & McMillan@NASA@NASA@NASASpace Weather Prediction• When electrons arrive, 10 minute warning for arrival of SEPs• The electron flux variations at radiation belts are determined by the combined effect of the structured solar wind driver and prestorm electron flux levels. • Post event analysis indicates that SIRs, Ejecta+Fast Wind, Sheath+Ejecta+Fast Wind most effective in creating NOAA electron event warning. BUT 10 min is not ENOUGH!!!!!!!!Space Hurricanes aka Kelvin-Helmholtz waves• Large (18,000-55,000 km in wave length) waves thatcan provide seed population for radiation belt electrons.• Can also directly heat plasma via magnetosonic waves.• Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves can generate ULF range Pc5 wavesthat can accelerate radiation belt electrons. Space Weather Can Be Harmful• Strong and rapid variations in magnetic fieldcan induce electric fields and produce currents• The induced currents can take down power grids etc.• High energy particles and radiation the biggestobstacle for manned missions to Mars.• GPS technology unreliable due to enhanced TEC. Extreme Space Weather• 1859 ‘Carrington’ eventproduced visible aurora evenin Cuba!!. • In 1989 geomagnetic stormKnocked out power across large sections of Quebec.• In 2012 a "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, CME, Solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit.• In 2015 Geomagnetic stormStops airtraffic in Sweden.• In 2013, Lloyd's of Londonand AER estimated the current cost of a Carrington eventto the U.S. alone at ~$1–2.6 trillionSevere Space Weather –Societal and Economic Impacts Space Weather Impacts – 4 Nov 20154“Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers during the blackout, which lasted about an hour”GPS Navigation and Space Weather• Space Weather variations during a mid-latitude ionospheric storm can lead to severe impacts on the FAA augmentation of GPS called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) [Dehel, 2004]. • Associated with these events are ionospheric irregularities and scintillations that can cause GPS receivers to lose signal tracking [Ledvina et al, 2002]. • Intense plume of enhanced ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over the continental USA at the maximum phase of the November 20, 2003 magnetic storm (20:05 UT),• F-region electron density(NmF2). The plume feature is called “Storm Enhanced Density”(SED). When it occurs, it can have significant impacts on navigation,communication and surveillance systems. When present, SEDs havecaused complete outage of the FAA’s WAAS that is designed to facilitate aircraft landings with a higher cadence due to improved navigation capabilities .Federal and International Space Weath  Policy InitiativesNational Business Aviation Association18 November 2015@NOAAFederal and International Space Weather Policy InitiativesNational Business Aviation Association18 November 2015

Space Weather Impacts on Aerospace and Modern Society

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Space Weather Impacts on Aerospace and Modern Society

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