This paper describes how a mathematical model can be constructed to fit theoretical or experimental data on yield and spill of liquid propellants. It shows how these primary quantities can be separated, how probability distributions can be found for each, and how probability confidence regions and confidence limits can be established.
The fundamental function of this very general mathematical model, based upon four independent parameters, and the characteristics of the resulting probability surface are discussed in detail.
The mathematical model, programmed for an IBM 709 computer, is applied to some spill test data of liquid propellants for which the necessary information is available and then with a minimum number of assumptions to missile failure yield estimates
