Optimization of Financial Transmission Right Portfolios Using Risk-Reward Analysis of Deregulated Power Systems

Abstract

Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) is an investment that protects the market customers from price uncertainty in the case of transmission line congestion. Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) allows bidding of FTR\u27s on various transmission paths. This thesis investigates quantitative methods for portfolio optimization to produce a risk-minimum portfolio of FTR\u27s to bid. A computer model based on Security-Constrained Unit Commitment Problem and Risk-Reward Analysis is developed to simulate various operating conditions of a power system and predict the variations of power flows and corresponding electricity prices. It offers guidelines about the bidding cost and the amount of megawatts to bid for each transmission path, in order to obtain a certain profit with the corresponding minimum risk. The method for calculating the risk and reward is Markowitz Mean-Variance Analysis. The computer model also includes the LMP determination for which a MATLAB code has been developed. The model is tested on a 6-bus power system

    Similar works