Technique for detecting a small magnitude loss of special nuclear material

Abstract

The detection of losses of special nuclear materials has been the subject of much research in recent years. The standard industry practice using ID/LEID will detect large magnitude losses. Time series techniques such as the Kalman Filter or CUSUM methods will detect small magnitude losses if they occur regularly over a sustained period of time. To date no technique has been proposed which adequately addresses the problem of detecting a small magnitude loss occurring in a single period. This paper proposes a method for detecting a small magnitude loss. The approach makes use of the influence function of Hempel. The influence function measures the effect of a single inventory difference on a group of statistics. An inventory difference for a period in which a loss occurs can be expected to produce an abnormality in the calculated statistics. This abnormality is measurable by the influence function. It is shown that a one period loss smaller in magnitude than the LEID can be detected using this approach