Near-infrared surveys have now determined the luminosity functions of galaxies at 6 ≲ z ≲ 8 to impressive precision and identified a number of candidates at even earlier times. Here, we develop a simple analytic model to describe these populations that allows physically motivated extrapolation to earlier times and fainter luminosities. We assume that galaxies grow through accretion on to dark matter haloes, which we model by matching haloes at fixed number density across redshift, and that stellar feedback limits the star formation rate. We allow for a variety of feedback mechanisms, including regulation through supernova energy and momentum from radiation pressure. We show that reasonable choices for the feedback parameters can fit the available galaxy data, which in turn substantially limits the range of plausible extrapolations of the luminosity function to earlier times and fainter luminosities: for example, the global star formation rate declines rapidly (by a factor of ∼20 from z = 6 to 15 in our fiducial model), but the bright galaxies accessible to observations decline even faster (by a factor ≳ 400 over the same range). Our framework helps us develop intuition for the range of expectations permitted by simple models of high-z galaxies that build on our understanding of ‘normal’ galaxy evolution. We also provide predictions for galaxy measurements by future facilities, including James Webb Space Telescope and Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope
