Granite Staters are evenly split in their opinion of the Supreme Court‚Äôs ruling on the Affordable Care Act, however the law itself remains unpopular in New Hampshire

Survey Center, UNH

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UNH Scholars' Repository

 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL  THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER  July 18, 2012  AFTER SUPREME COURT DECISION, HEALTHCARE REFORM STILL UNPOPULAR IN NH  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.  UNH Survey Center  603/862-2226   www.unh.edu/survey-center  DURHAM, NH – Granite Staters are evenly split in their opinion of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Affordable Care Act, however the law itself remains unpopular in New Hampshire.  These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred twenty-one (521) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between July 5 and July 15, 2012.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent.     Health Care Reform  The U.S. Supreme Court recent decision affirming most of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has not increased its popularity in New Hampshire.  In the most recent Granite State Poll, 38% of New Hampshire adults favor the legislation, 49% oppose it, and 13% are neutral or don’t know enough about it to say.      Support for the health care reform law is very low among independents and Republicans but is more popular among Democrats, increasing from 66% in April to 74% currently.  However, only 26% of political independents now favor the ACA (up from 21% in April) and only 7% of Republicans (unchanged from 8% in April).                                                             ∗ We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Favor / Oppose Health Care Reform Legislation 26%40% 39% 38% 38%35% 33% 35%39% 36% 38%57%49%46%49%52% 52% 53% 52%46% 46%49%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Feb. '10Apr. '10 July '10 Sept '10 Feb '11 Apr. '11 July '11 Oct. '11 Feb. '12Apr. '12 July '12Favor Oppose    While the Supreme Court decision received a lot of publicity both nationally and in New Hampshire, one-quarter of New Hampshire adults are either unaware how the Supreme Court ruled or incorrectly believe it rejected the law.  Seventy-five percent of Granite Staters correctly said that the Supreme Court upheld the ACA, 8% incorrectly said that the Court rejected the law, and 18% were unsure.       75%8%18%75%6%20%81%5%14%66%18% 17%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Uphold Reject Don't KnowDid Supreme Court Uphold or Reject Health Care LawAll NH Adults Democrats Republicans IndependentsFavor Health Care Reform Legislation by Party Identification (% Favor) 26%40% 39% 38% 38%35% 33% 35%39%36% 38%3%7% 7% 6% 8% 5%10%4%10% 8% 7%19%28%21%33% 34%25%20%26% 24%21%26%52%78%75% 74%77%68%62%68% 70% 66%74%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%All Adults GOP Independent DEMDespite their negative view on the ACA, New Hampshire adults are split in their opinion of the Court’s decision with 48% either somewhat or strongly agreeing with the decision, 47% either somewhat or strongly disagreeing with the ruling, and 5% neutral or unsure.   There is a deep partisan divide in how people view the Supreme Court’s decision with 81% of Democrats agreeing with the Court and 73% of Republicans disagreeing with the decision.  Independents also are more likely to disagree with the decision – only 42% agree with the decision while 58% disagree.     More importantly, this decision is likely to have an impact on the Presidential election in November.  Not surprisingly, 85% of Obama supporters agree with the decision and 77% of Romney supporters disagree with the decision.  But the few voters who say they are undecided are much more likely to disagree (67%) than agree (17%) with the decision.  When asked directly how the decision will impact their vote, 26% of New Hampshire adults say it makes them more likely to vote for President Obama, 39% say it makes them less likely to vote for Obama, while 35% said it will have no impact on their vote or are unsure.  Among political independents, 39% say it makes them less likely to vote for Obama while only 18% say it makes them more likely to vote for the President.     32%5%39%16%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Agree Neutral/Don't Know DisagreeAgree or Disagree with Supreme Court Ruling on Health Care LawStrongly Somewhat26%39%31%47%9%39%9%67%21%18%39% 40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%More Likely to Vote forObamaLess Likely to Vote for Obama No Effect on Vote ChoiceEffect of Supreme Court Ruling on Support for ObamaAll NH Adults Democrats Republicans IndependentsGranite State Poll Methodology  These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Five hundred twenty-one (521) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between July 5 and July 15, 2012.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent.    The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.     Favor / Oppose Health Care Reform Legislation Passed in Congress  “Let me ask you a question about healthcare.  The U.S. House and Senate passed legislation in March of 2010 that will overhaul the nation’s health care system.  Based on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the health care legislation that was passed in Congress, or don’t you have an opinion?”  (ASKED IN FEB ’10) “Let me ask you a question about healthcare.  The U.S. House and Senate have just passed legislation that would overhaul the nation’s health care system.   Based on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the health care legislation that is going through Congress, or don’t you have an opinion?”   Favor Neutral/DK Oppose (N) July ‘12 38% 13% 49% (518) Apr. ‘12 36% 18% 46% (534) Feb. ‘12 39% 15% 46% (524) Oct. ‘11 35% 13% 52% (554) July ‘11 33% 14% 53% (513) Apr. ‘11 35% 12% 52% (504) Feb. ‘11 38% 10% 52% (519) Sept. ‘10 38% 13% 49% (513) July ‘10 39% 15% 46% (502) Apr. ‘10 40% 10% 49% (512) Feb. ‘10 26% 16% 57% (498)   Did Supreme Court Uphold or Reject Health Care Law   “From what you've read and heard, did the Supreme Court uphold or reject most of the provisions in the health care law?” ROTATE RESPONSES    July ‘12  UPHOLD 75%  REJECT 8%  DON'T KNOW / NOT SURE 18%  (N=) (518)   Agree or Disagree with Supreme Court Ruling on Health Care Law   “As you may know, the U.S. Supreme Court has recently upheld the entire 2010 healthcare law, declaring it constitutional. Would you say you agree or disagree with this decision?” IF AGREE/DISAGREE: “Is that strongly or just somewhat?”    July ‘12  STRONGLY AGREE 32%  SOMEWHAT AGREE 16%  NEITHER / NEUTRAL 1%  SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 8%  STRONGLY DISAGREE 39%  DON’T KNOW / NOT SURE 4%  (N=) (514)    Effect of Supreme Court Ruling on Support for Obama   “Does the Supreme Court decision on the 2010 healthcare law make you more or less likely to vote for President Obama this November?”    July ‘12  MORE LIKELY 26%  LESS LIKELY 39%  MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IN VOTE 31%  DON’T KNOW / NOT SURE 4%  (N=) (513)   Favor / Oppose Health Care Legislation Passed in Congress   Favor Neutral/DK Oppose (N=) STATEWIDE 38% 13% 49% 518  Registered Democrat 74% 12% 14% 116 Registered Undeclared 37% 15% 48% 189 Registered Republican 11% 7% 82% 147  Democrat 74% 12% 14% 212 Independent 26% 13% 61% 84 Republican 7% 12% 81% 210  Liberal 81% 8% 11% 111 Moderate 40% 19% 41% 191 Conservative 9% 8% 83% 181  Support Tea Party 4% 9% 87% 137 Neutral 25% 15% 61% 159 Oppose Tea Party 78% 9% 13% 187  McCain/Palin Voter 3% 11% 86% 193 Obama/Biden Voter 71% 12% 16% 232 Other 4% 14% 81% 15 Did Not Vote in 2008 31% 17% 52% 58  Union household 52% 10% 38% 67 Non union 35% 13% 52% 436  Read Union Leader 24% 14% 63% 130 Read Boston Globe 56% 7% 38% 64 Watch WMUR 37% 12% 51% 310 Listen to NHPR 67% 9% 25% 151  10 yrs or less in NH 30% 13% 57% 84 11 to 20 years 46% 13% 40% 101 More than 20 years 38% 12% 50% 317  18 to 34 39% 21% 39% 84 35 to 49 40% 7% 53% 96 50 to 64 40% 9% 52% 175 65 and over 35% 15% 51% 146  Male 36% 11% 53% 260 Female 40% 14% 45% 258  High school or less 27% 19% 54% 125 Some college 34% 12% 54% 106 College graduate 41% 12% 47% 170 Post graduate 50% 5% 44% 106  Less than $30K 39% 17% 44% 62 $30K to $60K 40% 10% 50% 75 $60K to $75K 40% 11% 49% 44 $75K to $100K 32% 18% 50% 51 $100K or more 49% 5% 46% 113  Attend services 1 or more/week 28% 15% 57% 122 1 2 times a month 35% 13% 53% 48 Less often 37% 10% 53% 143 Never 46% 12% 42% 188  North Country 47% 12% 41% 39 Central / Lakes 35% 13% 53% 89 Connecticut Valley 51% 19% 30% 84 Mass Border 31% 11% 58% 140 Seacoast 36% 13% 50% 93 Manchester Area 40% 8% 53% 73  First Cong. Dist 36% 9% 55% 262 Second Cong. Dist 41% 16% 43% 247  Cell phone 40% 13% 48% 124 Landline 38% 13% 50% 394   Did Supreme Court Uphold or Reject Health Care Law   Uphold Reject Don’t Know (N=) STATEWIDE 75% 8% 18% 518  Registered Democrat 77% 5% 18% 116 Registered Undeclared 73% 11% 16% 189 Registered Republican 86% 5% 10% 147  Democrat 75% 6% 20% 212 Independent 66% 18% 17% 84 Republican 81% 5% 14% 210  Liberal 79% 5% 16% 111 Moderate 76% 7% 17% 191 Conservative 79% 8% 14% 181  Support Tea Party 81% 7% 12% 137 Neutral 65% 12% 22% 159 Oppose Tea Party 87% 4% 10% 187  McCain/Palin Voter 81% 9% 9% 193 Obama/Biden Voter 81% 4% 15% 232 Other 68% 12% 20% 15 Did Not Vote in 2008 41% 12% 47% 58  Union household 78% 5% 18% 67 Non union 75% 8% 17% 436  Read Union Leader 77% 10% 13% 130 Read Boston Globe 88% 5% 7% 64 Watch WMUR 73% 9% 17% 310 Listen to NHPR 78% 8% 14% 151  10 yrs or less in NH 70% 7% 23% 84 11 to 20 years 78% 7% 16% 101 More than 20 years 76% 8% 16% 317  18 to 34 53% 16% 31% 84 35 to 49 78% 5% 17% 96 50 to 64 82% 6% 12% 175 65 and over 77% 6% 18% 146  Male 80% 7% 13% 260 Female 69% 8% 23% 258  High school or less 59% 9% 32% 125 Some college 73% 9% 18% 106 College graduate 83% 6% 11% 170 Post graduate 85% 6% 9% 106  Less than $30K 49% 10% 40% 62 $30K to $60K 85% 9% 6% 75 $60K to $75K 72% 13% 15% 44 $75K to $100K 82% 4% 14% 51 $100K or more 93% 1% 6% 113  Attend services 1 or more/week 78% 6% 16% 122 1 2 times a month 76% 6% 18% 48 Less often 73% 8% 19% 143 Never 75% 8% 16% 188  North Country 65% 8% 27% 39 Central / Lakes 73% 13% 15% 89 Connecticut Valley 73% 8% 18% 84 Mass Border 82% 5% 14% 140 Seacoast 71% 8% 21% 93 Manchester Area 75% 6% 19% 73  First Cong. Dist 76% 6% 18% 262 Second Cong. Dist 74% 9% 17% 247  Cell phone 69% 12% 19% 124 Landline 76% 6% 17% 394 Agree or Disagree with Supreme Court Ruling on Health Care Law   Strongly Somewhat  Somewhat Strongly Don't  Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Disagree Know (N=) STATEWIDE 32% 16% 1% 8% 39% 4% 514  Registered Democrat 63% 19% 1% 6% 9% 3% 115 Registered Undeclared 32% 19% 2% 7% 32% 7% 186 Registered Republican 12% 8% 1% 10% 67% 1% 147  Democrat 60% 21% 1% 7% 8% 3% 209 Independent 25% 17% 0% 7% 51% 1% 83 Republican 8% 11% 2% 10% 63% 6% 211  Liberal 62% 21% 0% 6% 9% 1% 111 Moderate 34% 21% 3% 7% 32% 4% 190 Conservative 9% 9% 1% 10% 64% 6% 179  Support Tea Party 7% 6% 1% 7% 76% 4% 138 Neutral 19% 19% 2% 12% 44% 4% 157 Oppose Tea Party 64% 21% 1% 4% 9% 1% 186  McCain/Palin Voter 6% 9% 2% 9% 68% 6% 193 Obama/Biden Voter 57% 23% 1% 4% 12% 3% 230 Other 17% 6% 0% 7% 70% 0% 15 Did Not Vote in 2008 24% 13% 0% 20% 39% 5% 56  Union household 37% 23% 1% 11% 24% 5% 67 Non union 31% 15% 2% 8% 41% 4% 432  Read Union Leader 19% 17% 2% 10% 48% 4% 130 Read Boston Globe 39% 23% 3% 5% 28% 2% 64 Watch WMUR 31% 15% 1% 8% 41% 4% 308 Listen to NHPR 53% 19% 1% 6% 19% 2% 150  10 yrs or less in NH 33% 10% 2% 7% 43% 5% 82 11 to 20 years 37% 15% 1% 8% 34% 5% 101 More than 20 years 31% 17% 1% 7% 39% 4% 316  18 to 34 35% 20% 0% 11% 29% 5% 84 35 to 49 31% 12% 2% 10% 43% 2% 96 50 to 64 34% 15% 1% 7% 41% 2% 175 65 and over 28% 16% 3% 6% 40% 7% 143  Male 31% 19% 0% 7% 39% 4% 258 Female 34% 12% 2% 8% 38% 5% 256  High school or less 21% 15% 0% 8% 50% 6% 123 Some college 26% 12% 3% 13% 41% 6% 105 College graduate 35% 19% 1% 7% 34% 4% 171 Post graduate 44% 16% 2% 5% 32% 1% 105  Less than $30K 32% 15% 0% 9% 38% 6% 60 $30K to $60K 35% 14% 2% 10% 37% 3% 74 $60K to $75K 34% 9% 2% 14% 36% 5% 42 $75K to $100K 34% 24% 0% 3% 38% 2% 51 $100K or more 41% 16% 4% 5% 33% 1% 113  Attend services 1 or more/week 22% 15% 1% 6% 51% 5% 121 1 2 times a month 26% 16% 0% 9% 40% 9% 49 Less often 29% 16% 3% 10% 39% 3% 141 Never 41% 16% 1% 7% 31% 3% 187  North Country 45% 6% 2% 12% 34% 1% 38 Central / Lakes 28% 16% 2% 6% 44% 4% 87 Connecticut Valley 47% 12% 2% 10% 25% 5% 82 Mass Border 23% 17% 1% 11% 45% 2% 140 Seacoast 28% 17% 1% 6% 38% 10% 93 Manchester Area 36% 20% 1% 2% 39% 2% 73  First Cong. Dist 31% 15% 1% 5% 43% 5% 262 Second Cong. Dist 33% 17% 2% 10% 35% 3% 244  Cell phone 35% 21% 0% 8% 33% 4% 124 Landline 31% 14% 2% 8% 40% 4% 390 Effect of Supreme Court Ruling on Support for Obama   More Likely Less Likely No Effect  To Vote For To Vote For On Vote Choice DK (N) STATEWIDE 26% 39% 31% 4% 513  Registered Democrat 47% 7% 42% 5% 116 Registered Undeclared 24% 37% 34% 5% 185 Registered Republican 14% 65% 21% 0% 147  Democrat 47% 9% 39% 5% 211 Independent 18% 39% 40% 2% 82 Republican 9% 67% 21% 4% 208  Liberal 44% 11% 43% 2% 111 Moderate 27% 33% 37% 2% 191 Conservative 11% 62% 19% 7% 178  Support Tea Party 7% 69% 20% 4% 135 Neutral 21% 48% 27% 4% 157 Oppose Tea Party 46% 11% 43% 0% 187  McCain/Palin Voter 5% 71% 23% 2% 190 Obama/Biden Voter 46% 8% 41% 5% 231 Other 0% 52% 40% 8% 14 Did Not Vote in 2008 23% 44% 24% 9% 58  Union household 28% 28% 40% 4% 67 Non union 26% 40% 30% 4% 431  Read Union Leader 20% 49% 30% 2% 127 Read Boston Globe 28% 26% 45% 1% 62 Watch WMUR 28% 40% 28% 3% 306 Listen to NHPR 34% 18% 47% 0% 150  10 yrs or less in NH 23% 46% 29% 2% 82 11 to 20 years 26% 36% 37% 2% 101 More than 20 years 28% 37% 30% 5% 315  18 to 34 32% 31% 30% 8% 84 35 to 49 21% 41% 36% 2% 96 50 to 64 24% 40% 33% 3% 171 65 and over 29% 39% 27% 5% 145  Male 23% 38% 34% 4% 256 Female 29% 39% 28% 4% 258  High school or less 29% 44% 22% 5% 123 Some college 25% 39% 28% 8% 105 College graduate 23% 37% 39% 1% 168 Post graduate 29% 35% 34% 2% 106  Less than $30K 35% 33% 26% 6% 60 $30K to $60K 31% 33% 31% 5% 74 $60K to $75K 36% 40% 22% 2% 44 $75K to $100K 15% 42% 43% 0% 50 $100K or more 23% 39% 38% 0% 112  Attend services 1 or more/week 26% 44% 25% 5% 122 1 2 times a month 28% 55% 15% 3% 49 Less often 23% 39% 32% 6% 140 Never 28% 30% 40% 2% 186  North Country 38% 35% 22% 5% 38 Central / Lakes 24% 42% 31% 4% 88 Connecticut Valley 41% 23% 26% 9% 84 Mass Border 21% 47% 30% 2% 139 Seacoast 18% 41% 34% 7% 93 Manchester Area 27% 34% 39% 0% 72  First Cong. Dist 23% 42% 30% 4% 259 Second Cong. Dist 29% 35% 32% 4% 246  Cell phone 28% 36% 32% 4% 122 Landline 26% 40% 31% 4% 391   

After Supreme Court Decision, Healthcare Reform Still Unpopular In NH 7/18/2012

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1236&amp;context=survey_center_polls

After Supreme Court Decision, Healthcare Reform Still Unpopular In NH 7/18/2012

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