The New Hampshire Democratic primary race has stabilized with John Kerry maintaining a 17 percentage point lead over Howard Dean. Election: NH Primary 200

Survey Center, UNH

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 1  2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 January 24, 2004  Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:15 P.M. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                 NH RACE STABILIZES  Durham, NH – The New Hampshire Democratic primary race has stabilized with John Kerry maintaining a 17 percentage point lead over Howard Dean.  These findings are based on the 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by FOX News, WCVB-TV Boston, and WMUR-TV Manchester. Four hundred fifty-two (452) likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were interviewed between January 21 and January 23, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±4.6%.  (For more information about the NH Primary Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on “Press Releases and Publications”.)  John Kerry’s lead over Howard Dean has stabilized after Dean’s dramatic drop over the past week.  Dean has dropped 14% in New Hampshire after his loss and controversial concession speech in Iowa while Kerry has gained 13%.  In the latest NH Primary Tracking Poll, 37% of likely Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 19% support Dean, 13% favor Wesley Clark, 12% favor John Edwards, 10% favor Joe Lieberman, 2% favor Dennis Kucinich, and 8% are undecided.  The race for third place is tightening and now is between Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman.  Clark has slipped in recent days and both Edwards and Lieberman continue to climb.  Clark has dropped 5% since the Iowa caucuses, Edwards has gained 4%, and Lieberman has gained 5%.  Support for the candidates continues to solidify – 61% of likely voters now say they are certain to support their favored candidate, up from 51% earlier this week.  Dean (71%) and  Kerry (66%,) have the highest percentage of supporters saying they will definitely vote for their candidate while Clark (46%), Lieberman (49%), and Edwards (50%) have the lowest percentage of definite supporters.  Howard Dean is still seen as the most inconsistent candidate – 44% say he is the candidate who has most often said things he later had to retract or flip-flopped on his positions while only 8% name either Clark or Kerry.  This measure has also stabilized in recent days.  Subgroup Analysis Support for Kerry continues to be consistent across demographic groups.  Kerry also does equally well among registered Democrats and undeclared voters.   NH Democratic Primary   Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucinich Lieberman Other UND. (N=) January 17-19 18% 33% 8% 24% 3% 5% 3% 6% 338 January 18-20          18% 29% 8% 27% 3% 5% 3% 6% 447 January 19-21 19% 25% 8% 30% 3% 7% 1% 7% 483 January 20-22 15% 19% 11% 37% 3% 8% 0% 7% 421 January 21-23 (Latest) 13% 19% 12% 37% 2% 10% 0% 8% 444  Registration Status Registered Democrat 11 23 13 38 1 5 0 10 215 Undeclared 15 15 11 36 3 13 1 6 217 Not Registered, Will Vote 0 27 18 30 0 25 0 0 12 

NH Tracking Poll 1/24/2004

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1467&amp;context=survey_center_polls

NH Tracking Poll 1/24/2004

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