John Kerry continues to hold a substantial lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic primary while Wesley Clark continues to drop back.  Election: NH Primary 200

Survey Center, UNH

English

John Kerry continued to expand his lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary. Dean is danger of dropping into third place behind Wesley Clark.  Election: NH Primary 200

University of New Hampshire

 1 
 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 January 23, 2004 
 Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:15 P.M. 
UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                
 
KERRY WIDENS LEAD 
 
Durham, NH – John Kerry continued to expand his lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.   
Dean is danger of dropping into third place behind Wesley Clark. 
 
These findings are based on the 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New 
Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by FOX News, WCVB-TV Boston, and WMUR-TV Manchester. Four 
hundred thirty-one (431) likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were interviewed between January 20 and 
January 22, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±4.7%.  (For more information about the NH Primary 
Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on “Press Releases and Publications”.) 
 
John Kerry continues to build on his lead in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire.  Currently, 37% of likely 
Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 19% support Dean, 15% support Wesley Clark, 11% support John Edwards, 8% 
support Joe Lieberman, 3% support Dennis Kucinich, and 7% remain undecided. 
 
Since the Iowa caucuses, Kerry has gained 13 percentage points and Dean has lost 14 percentage points.  Clark has slipped 
somewhat and John Edwards has begun to move.  As happened in Iowa, Kerry has benefited from the same movement of 
voters turning away from Dean because of concerns about his electability and consistency.  Currently, 44% of likely primary 
voters say that Dean is the most inconsistent candidate, up from 34% three days ago. 
 
Support for the candidates is firming up – 58% say they are certain to support their candidate, up from 51% earlier this week. 
 Dean (68%), Kerry (62%,) and Edwards (62%) have the highest percentage of supporters saying they will definitely vote for 
their candidate while Clark (43%) and Lieberman (36%) have the lowest percentage of definite supporters. 
 
Iraq 
While only 10% of likely voters say that the war in Iraq is the most important issue in the campaign, most primary voters 
strongly think that entering the war was the wrong thing for the US to do.  Fifty-two percent of primary voters say they feel 
strongly that US going to war was wrong and another 11% saying the feel that it was somewhat wrong.  Only 31% think 
going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do and 6% are unsure.  Dean and Kucinich voters are most opposed to the war. 
 
Subgroup Analysis 
Support for Kerry is remarkably consistent across demographic groups.  He does especially well among voters with lower 
levels of education and people living in towns bordering Massachusetts.   
 
 NH Democratic Primary 
 Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucinich Lieberman Other UND. (N=) 
January 17-19 18% 33% 8% 24% 3% 5% 3% 6% 338 
January 18-20          18% 29% 8% 27% 3% 5% 3% 6% 447 
January 19-21 19% 25% 8% 30% 3% 7% 1% 7% 483 
January 20-22 (Latest) 15% 19% 11% 37% 3% 8% 0% 7% 421 
 
Registration Status 
Registered Democrat 14 21 10 39 2 5 0 9 194 
Undeclared 17 16 11 35 4 10 1 7 212 
Not Registered, Will Vote 0 23 28 34 0 15 0 0 15 
 


NH Tracking Poll 1/23/2004

 1 
 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll 
 
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 January 25, 2004 
 Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:15 P.M. 
UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                
 
NH RACE STABILIZES 
 
Durham, NH – John Kerry continues to hold a substantial lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic 
primary while Wesley Clark continues to drop back. 
 
These findings are based on the 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New 
Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by FOX News, WCVB-TV Boston, and WMUR-TV Manchester. Four 
hundred sixty-three (463) likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were interviewed between January 22 and 
January 24, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±4.6%.  (For more information about the NH Primary 
Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on “Press Releases and Publications”.) 
 
The New Hampshire Democratic primary race has become a two-man contest with John Kerry leading the Democratic field 
and Howard Dean lagging a distant second..  Thirty-seven  percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 22% 
support Dean, 12% favor John Edwards, 11% favor Wesley Clark, 8% favor Joe Lieberman, 2% favor Dennis Kucinich, 1% 
prefer some other candidate, and 6% are undecided. 
 
Kerry’s support has been steady at 37% for three days, but support for Dean has increases slightly from 19% to 22%, an 
indication that he might be recovering from the collapse in support his campaign experienced the past week.  Clark continues 
to slide back into the pack and now trails John Edwards for third place. 
 
Overall, 62% of primary voters say they are certain to support the candidate they favor.  Dean (73%) and Kerry (68%) have 
the highest percentage of definite supporters. 
 
The confidence of Kerry supporters is increasing – 44% are very confident that he will win the Democratic nomination while 
only 23% of Dean supporters are very confident that Dean will win the nomination.  Clark supporters and Kerry supporters 
are most confident that their candidate can beat President Bush in the 2004 general election. 
 
Dean is still seen as the most inconsistent candidate – 40% say he is the candidate who has most often said things he later 
had to retract or flip-flopped on his positions while only 11% name Kerry and 9% name Clark. 
 
Kerry is well positioned for the election as his support is evenly distributed across political and demographic groups.  Support 
for Dean is concentrated among liberal voters 
 
 NH Democratic Primary 
 
 Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucinich Lieberman Other UND. (N=) 
January 17-19 18% 33% 8% 24% 3% 5% 3% 6% 338 
January 18-20          18% 29% 8% 27% 3% 5% 3% 6% 447 
January 19-21 19% 25% 8% 30% 3% 7% 1% 7% 483 
January 20-22 15% 19% 11% 37% 3% 8% 0% 7% 421 
January 21-23 13% 19% 12% 37% 2% 10% 0% 8% 444 
January 22-24 (Latest) 11% 22% 12% 37% 2% 8% 1% 6% 458 
 
Registration Status 
Registered Democrat 7 27 13 33 2 5 0 8 226 
Undeclared 16 17 11 38 2 10 1 5 219 
Not Registered, Will Vote 8 29 6 34 0 22 0 0 13 
 
NOTE:  Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.


NH Tracking Poll 1/25/2004

UNH Scholars' Repository

 1  2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 January 23, 2004  Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:15 P.M. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                 KERRY WIDENS LEAD  Durham, NH – John Kerry continued to expand his lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.   Dean is danger of dropping into third place behind Wesley Clark.  These findings are based on the 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by FOX News, WCVB-TV Boston, and WMUR-TV Manchester. Four hundred thirty-one (431) likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were interviewed between January 20 and January 22, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±4.7%.  (For more information about the NH Primary Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on “Press Releases and Publications”.)  John Kerry continues to build on his lead in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire.  Currently, 37% of likely Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 19% support Dean, 15% support Wesley Clark, 11% support John Edwards, 8% support Joe Lieberman, 3% support Dennis Kucinich, and 7% remain undecided.  Since the Iowa caucuses, Kerry has gained 13 percentage points and Dean has lost 14 percentage points.  Clark has slipped somewhat and John Edwards has begun to move.  As happened in Iowa, Kerry has benefited from the same movement of voters turning away from Dean because of concerns about his electability and consistency.  Currently, 44% of likely primary voters say that Dean is the most inconsistent candidate, up from 34% three days ago.  Support for the candidates is firming up – 58% say they are certain to support their candidate, up from 51% earlier this week.  Dean (68%), Kerry (62%,) and Edwards (62%) have the highest percentage of supporters saying they will definitely vote for their candidate while Clark (43%) and Lieberman (36%) have the lowest percentage of definite supporters.  Iraq While only 10% of likely voters say that the war in Iraq is the most important issue in the campaign, most primary voters strongly think that entering the war was the wrong thing for the US to do.  Fifty-two percent of primary voters say they feel strongly that US going to war was wrong and another 11% saying the feel that it was somewhat wrong.  Only 31% think going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do and 6% are unsure.  Dean and Kucinich voters are most opposed to the war.  Subgroup Analysis Support for Kerry is remarkably consistent across demographic groups.  He does especially well among voters with lower levels of education and people living in towns bordering Massachusetts.     NH Democratic Primary  Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucinich Lieberman Other UND. (N=) January 17-19 18% 33% 8% 24% 3% 5% 3% 6% 338 January 18-20          18% 29% 8% 27% 3% 5% 3% 6% 447 January 19-21 19% 25% 8% 30% 3% 7% 1% 7% 483 January 20-22 (Latest) 15% 19% 11% 37% 3% 8% 0% 7% 421  Registration Status Registered Democrat 14 21 10 39 2 5 0 9 194 Undeclared 17 16 11 35 4 10 1 7 212 Not Registered, Will Vote 0 23 28 34 0 15 0 0 15  

 1  2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll  By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 January 25, 2004  Dennis M. Junius, M.A.           6:15 P.M. UNH Survey Center www.unh.edu/survey-center                 NH RACE STABILIZES  Durham, NH – John Kerry continues to hold a substantial lead over Howard Dean in the New Hampshire Democratic primary while Wesley Clark continues to drop back.  These findings are based on the 2004 New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  This survey is sponsored by FOX News, WCVB-TV Boston, and WMUR-TV Manchester. Four hundred sixty-three (463) likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were interviewed between January 22 and January 24, 2004.  The potential sampling error for the survey is ±4.6%.  (For more information about the NH Primary Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on “Press Releases and Publications”.)  The New Hampshire Democratic primary race has become a two-man contest with John Kerry leading the Democratic field and Howard Dean lagging a distant second..  Thirty-seven  percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 22% support Dean, 12% favor John Edwards, 11% favor Wesley Clark, 8% favor Joe Lieberman, 2% favor Dennis Kucinich, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 6% are undecided.  Kerry’s support has been steady at 37% for three days, but support for Dean has increases slightly from 19% to 22%, an indication that he might be recovering from the collapse in support his campaign experienced the past week.  Clark continues to slide back into the pack and now trails John Edwards for third place.  Overall, 62% of primary voters say they are certain to support the candidate they favor.  Dean (73%) and Kerry (68%) have the highest percentage of definite supporters.  The confidence of Kerry supporters is increasing – 44% are very confident that he will win the Democratic nomination while only 23% of Dean supporters are very confident that Dean will win the nomination.  Clark supporters and Kerry supporters are most confident that their candidate can beat President Bush in the 2004 general election.  Dean is still seen as the most inconsistent candidate – 40% say he is the candidate who has most often said things he later had to retract or flip-flopped on his positions while only 11% name Kerry and 9% name Clark.  Kerry is well positioned for the election as his support is evenly distributed across political and demographic groups.  Support for Dean is concentrated among liberal voters   NH Democratic Primary   Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Kucinich Lieberman Other UND. (N=) January 17-19 18% 33% 8% 24% 3% 5% 3% 6% 338 January 18-20          18% 29% 8% 27% 3% 5% 3% 6% 447 January 19-21 19% 25% 8% 30% 3% 7% 1% 7% 483 January 20-22 15% 19% 11% 37% 3% 8% 0% 7% 421 January 21-23 13% 19% 12% 37% 2% 10% 0% 8% 444 January 22-24 (Latest) 11% 22% 12% 37% 2% 8% 1% 6% 458  Registration Status Registered Democrat 7 27 13 33 2 5 0 8 226 Undeclared 16 17 11 38 2 10 1 5 219 Not Registered, Will Vote 8 29 6 34 0 22 0 0 13  NOTE:  Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1466&amp;context=survey_center_polls

NH Tracking Poll 1/25/2004

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