New Hampshire is an increasingly mobile state, with considerable turnover of its residents. This turnover is changing the voter base in the state with potentially dramatic implications for the November elections. Nearly a third of the potential voters in New Hampshire this November became eligible to vote in the past eight years. These potential new voters are more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than are established New Hampshire voters

Survey Center, UNH

English

UNH Scholars' Repository

	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 1CARSEYI N S T I T U T ENEW ENGLAND ISSUE BRIEF NO. 9FALL 2008Many	New	Voters	Make	the	Granite	State	One	to	Watch	in	NovemberKENNETH M.  JOHNSON,  DANTE SCALA,  AND ANDREW SMITHNew	Hampshire	is	an	increasingly	mobile	state,	with	considerable	turnover	of	its	residents.	This	turnover	is	changing	the	voter	base	in	the	state	with	poten-tially	dramatic	implications	for	the	November	elections.	Nearly	a	third	of	the	potential	voters	in	New	Hampshire	this	November	became	eligible	to	vote	in	the	past	eight	years.	These	potential	new	voters	are	more	likely	to	identify	with	the	Democratic	Party	than	are	established	New	Hampshire	voters.Demographic	TrendsMigration	plays	a	critical	role	in	shaping	the	electorate	of	New	Hampshire.	The	state	has	one	of	the	most	mobile		populations	in	the	nation.	Fewer	than	45	percent	of	the		residents	of	New	Hampshire	were	born	in	the	state.	In		contrast,	nationwide	67	percent	of	the	native-born		population	resides	in	the	state	in	which	they	were	born.	Only	five	states	have	a	smaller	proportion	of	their	native-born	population	still	living	in	their	state	of	birth.Between	2000	and	2008,	an	estimated	321,000	people	moved	to	New	Hampshire	from	elsewhere	in	the	United	States.	Some	subsequently	left	the	state,	but	most	remained.	We	estimate	that	208,000	of	these	migrants	who	are	U.S.	citizens	of	voting	age	remain	in	the	state.	During	the	same	period,	an	estimated	292,000	people	left	the	state.	Some	subsequently	returned	but	most	did	not.	We	estimate	that	199,000	of	those	who	left	and	have	not	returned	were		citizens	of	voting	age.	In	all,	as	many	as	407,000	potential	voters	moved	in	or	out	of	New	Hampshire	during	those	eight	years,	a	substantial	change	for	a	state	with	an	electorate	of	only	991,000.	The	largest	source	of	new	migrants	to	New	Hampshire	is	the	Boston	metropolitan	area	according	to	prior	Carsey		Institute	research.	New	Hampshire	also	gains	significant	numbers	of	migrants	from	the	Northeast	and	the	South.		Migrants	to	New	Hampshire	include	many	families	with	children	that	settle	in	the	state’s	urban	and	suburban	southern	region	as	well	as	50–69	year-olds	who	relocate	to	the	state’s	recreational	and	amenity	areas.	A	second	demographic	force	influencing	the	electorate	is	life	cycle	changes	among	its	population.	Between	2000	and	2008,	113,000	New	Hampshire	citizens	celebrated	their	18th	birthday.	However,	the	voter	pool	was	thinned	by	the	deaths	of	83,000	New	Hampshire	residents.Together	the	migrants	and	those	turning	18	in	the	past	eight	years	represent	321,000	potential	new	voters	or	about	one-third	of	the	residents	eligible	to	vote	this	fall	(Figure	1).	Some	will	not	register	or	vote,	but	those	who	do	represent	a	substantial	proportion	of	those	casting	ballots.	Comparing	these	new	residents	with	the	established	population	of	the	state	demonstrates	how	demographic	change	may	affect	the	upcoming	election.	Young11%Migrants21%Established68%Figure 1. Estimated Young, Migrant, and Estab-lished Potential Voters in New Hampshire, 2008Estimated Potential Voters = 991,000Analysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of New HampshireSource: Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service		 2	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T ENew	Voters	More	Likely	to		Identify	as	DemocratsThe	influx	of	potential	voters	to	New	Hampshire	has	signifi-cant	implications	because	they	differ	in	their	party	identifica-tion	from	long-time	residents.	We	divide	the	potential	voters	into	three	groups.	Young	potential	voters	are	residents	who	are	citizens	and	turned	18	after	2000.	Migrants	are	potential	voters	who	have	moved	to	New	Hampshire	from	elsewhere	in	the	United	States	since	2000.	Established	potential	voters	are	eligible	voters	who	resided	in	New	Hampshire	in	both	2000	and	2008.	Both	young	voters	(53	percent)	and	migrants	(52	percent)	are	more	likely	to	identify	as	Democrats	than	are	established	voters	(43	percent),	according	to	analysis	of	the	University		of	New	Hampshire	Survey	Center’s	Granite	State	Polls		(Figure	2).	In	contrast,	39	percent	of	the	established	voters	identify	with	the	Republican	Party	compared	with	28	percent	of	the	young	voters	and	32	percent	of	the	migrants.	Young	voters	are	also	slightly	more	likely	to	identify	as	undeclared	than	are	either	migrants	or	established	voters.Although	stated	preferences	of	new	potential	voters	differ	from	those	of	established	residents,	this	has	yet	to	be	fully	reflected	in	voter	registration	data.	For	example,	only	17	percent	of	young	voters	are	registered	as	Democrats,	yet	53	percent	identify	themselves	as	such	(Figure	3).	Similarly,	the	12	percent	of	young	potential	voters	who	have	registered	as	Republicans	is	considerably	less	than	the	28	percent	who	identify	as	Republicans.	Young	voters	are	also	the	least	likely	to	have	registered,	and	among	those	who	have,	most	regis-tered	as	undeclared.	The	trends	are	similar	among	migrants.	Fewer	than	25	percent	have	registered	as	Democrats	and	16	percent	as	Republicans,	although	many	more	identify	with	each	party.	Nearly	40	percent	are	registered	as	undeclared	and	19	percent	are	not	registered.	Established	potential	voters	are	the	most	likely	to	be	registered	and	although	many	register	as	undeclared,	they	are	also	the	most	likely	to	have	a	party	affiliation.	Among	those	who	are	registered,	24	percent	registered	as	Democrats	and	27	percent	as	Republicans.	Differences	among	the	potential	voter	groups	may	result	from	differences	in	key	demographic	indicators.	Migrants	to	New	Hampshire	are	both	better	educated	and	earn	higher	incomes	than	do	established	or	new	voters.	Nearly	65	percent	of	the	migrants	hold	at	least	a	bachelor’s	degree	and	38	percent	have	household	incomes	of	$100,000	or	more.	In	comparison,	52	percent	of	the	established	group	has	at	least	a	bachelor’s	degree,	and	29	percent	have	household	incomes	of	more	than	$100,000.	As	would	be	expected,	younger	voters	have	lower	levels	of	education	(29	percent	have	at	least	a	bachelor’s	degree)	and	lower	incomes	(15	percent	of	young	households	have	incomes	over	$100,000)	than	their	older	and	more	experienced	colleagues.	Where	the	three	voting	groups	reside	also	differs,	with	implications	for	the	election.	Most	recent	migrants	to	New	Hampshire	are	clustered	near	the	Massachusetts	border	on	the	periphery	of	the	Boston	metropolitan	area,	in	the	Sea-coast	region,	or	in	the	Connecticut	Valley.	Many	new	voters	also	reside	in	the	suburban	region	near	the	Massachusetts	border	and	Seacoast,	but	Manchester	is	also	popular	among	the	younger	group.	Established	voters	cluster	in	the	same	Massachusetts	suburban	border	region,	along	the	Seacoast,	and	also	in	the	Central/Lake	regions.		6050403020100 Young Voters Migrants Established Voters Democrat Undeclared RepublicanFigure 2: Party Identification of Young Voters, Migrants, and Established Voters45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0% Young Voters Migrants Established Voters Registered Democrat Undeclared Registered  Republican Not registered/don’t knowAnalysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of New HampshireSource: Granite State Polls, University of New HampshireFigure 3: Voter Registration of Young Voters, Migrants, and Established VotersAnalysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of  New HampshireSource: Granite State Polls, University of New Hampshire	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 3Changing	Patterns	of	Voter		Registration	The	impact	of	changing	demographics	is	reflected	in	the	changing	voter	registration	patterns	since	the	1990s.	After	the	1998	election,	there	were	272,000	registered	Republicans	in	New	Hampshire	and	203,000	registered	Democrats,	a	difference	of	70,000.		Ten	years	later,	the	difference	had	nar-rowed	to	6,000	more	registered	Republicans	(271,000)	than	Democrats	(265,000).	Thus,	Democratic	registrations	grew	by	30	percent,	between	1998	and	2008,	while	Republican	registrations	remained	stable.	Statewide	voter	registration	grew	by	14	percent	overall.In	general,	New	Hampshire	counties	with	greater	net	migration	gains	experienced	larger	gains	in	Democratic	registrations.	The	relationship	between	migration	and	Republican	registration	trends	is	more	complicated,	but	generally	smaller	migration	gains	are	correlated	with	smaller	gains	or	larger	losses	in	Republican	registrations.	Hillsborough	and	Rockingham	counties,	where	half	of	Granite	State	residents	live,	each	had	modest	migration	and	Democratic	registrations	gains,	but	both	were	below	statewide	Democratic	growth	(Figure	4).	In	contrast,	Republican	gains	remained	stagnant	in	Hillsborough,	as	they	did	statewide.	Republican	registrations	did	grow	modestly	in	Rockingham	County,	in	part,	due	to	the	composition	of	migration	stream	into	the	county.	More	Republicans	were	in	this	migration	stream	than	in	those	flowing	into	most	other	areas	of	the	state,	according	to	Granite	State	poll	data.The	most	dramatic	changes	in	partisanship	took	place	in	traditionally	Republican	counties	such	as	Grafton,	Carroll,	and	Belknap.	The	share	of	Democrats	in	these	counties	grew	at	nearly	twice	the	statewide	Democratic	growth	rate,	in	part	because	the	base	was	small	to	begin	with.	Such	rapid	gains	also	coincided	with	large	migration	gains	in	Carroll	and	Belknap	counties,	suggesting	that	voter	turnover	may	have	contributed	to	these	Democratic	gains.	Grafton’s	migration	gains	were	more	modest,	but	its	Democratic	gains	were	substantial,	suggesting	that	more	subtle	demographic	forces	and	other	factors	were	at	work.	The	link	between	migra-tion	(which	reflects	population	turnover)	and	registration	trends	gains	further	credence	when	examining	Republican	registration	losses.	Carroll	and	Grafton	experienced	the	second	and	third	largest	declines	in	Republican	registrations	despite	significant	migration	gains.	Only	Coos	County,	which	experienced	little	migration	gain,	experienced	a	larger	Republican	loss.	The	growing	number	of	Democratic	and	stable	number	of	Republican	registered	voters	has	changed	the	proportions	of	each	party	in	counties	across	the	state.	Most	of	these	changes	in	voter	partisanship	occurred	outside	the	major	urban	and	suburban	areas	in	Rockingham	and	Hillsborough	Counties	(Figure	5).	For	example,	Republican	registrations	declined	modestly	from	35	to	33	percent	in	Rockingham	County	and	from	37	to	32	percent	in	Hillsborough	County	while	Demo-7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0% Carroll Belknap Merrimack Straord Cheshire Sullivan Grafton Rockingham Coos Hillsborough Net Migration Democrat RepublicanFigure 4: Change in Democratic and Republican Registration and in Net Migration for  New Hampshire CountiesAnalysis: Dante Scala, University  of New HampshireSource: New Hampshire Secretary of State and Census Bureau		 4	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T Ecratic	registration	rose	slightly	from	25	to	29	percent	and	29	to	30	percent,	respectively.	The	proportion	undeclared,	which	is	the	difference	between	the	party	registrations	and	100	percent	increased	slightly	in	Hillsborough	County		and	declined	slightly	in	Rockingham	County.	For	the	other		half	of	the	state’s	voters	who	live	in	the	eight	least	populated	counties,	Democratic	registrations	increased	rapidly	while	Republican	registrations	decreased.	For	example,	Demo-cratic	registrations	rose	from	16	to	22	percent	in	Carroll	County	and	from	23	to	32	percent	in	Grafton	County,	while	Republican	registrations	diminished	from	43	to	34	percent	in	Carroll	County	and	from	37	to	28	percent	in	Grafton	County.	These	Republican	losses	occurred	despite	popula-tion	gains	in	both	counties	between	2000	and	2008.	Detailed	analysis	suggests	that	diminished	Republican	dominance	in	these	traditional	Yankee	Republican	counties	may	well	be	due,	at	least	in	part,	to	the	turnover	in	the	pool	of	voters	fueled	by	migration	and	generation	changes.	ConclusionThe	voting	population	of	New	Hampshire	is	among	the		most	mobile	in	the	United	States.	About	one-third		of	the	potential	voters	are	new	to	the	state’s	electoral	process	since	2000.	Both	young	voters	and	recent	migrants	are	more	likely	to	identify	themselves	as	Democrats	and	less	likely	to	identify	with	Republicans	than	are	established	voters.	Voter	turnover	fueled	by	demographic	change	is	also	affecting	voter	registration,	with	a	growing	Democratic	base	and		stable	or	declining	numbers	of	registered	Republicans.	We	conclude	that	demographic	change	has	significant	implica-tions	for	the	November	election.	About	this	BriefKenneth M. Johnson	is	senior	demographer	at	the	Carsey	Institute	and	a	professor	of	sociology	at	the		University	of	New	Hampshire.	Dante Scala	is	an	associate	professor	and	Chair	of	the	Political	Science		Department	at	the	University	of	New	Hampshire.		Andrew Smith	directs	the	Survey	Center	at	the	University	of	New	Hampshire,	where	he	is	also	an		associate	professor	of	political	science.	Skye	MacKay		and	Allison	Churilla	of	the	Carsey	Institute	provided		valuable	research	assistance	on	the	project.Demographic	data	for	this	study	comes	from	the	U.S.		Census	Bureau	and	from	the	county	to	county	migration	series	of	the	Internal	Revenue	Service.	The	migration	estimates	derived	from	the	IRS	data	should	be	interpreted	with	caution.	Although	IRS	data	is	comprehensive,	those	who	do	not	file	returns	or	are	filing	their	first	return	are	excluded	from	the	migration	analysis.	Also,	an	unknown	number	of	in-migrants	to	New	Hampshire	during	the	study	period	left	the	state	by	2008.	The	overall	impact	of	these	factors	is	unknown	because	little	research	exists	on	the	topic,	but	our	models	assumed	the	effect	is	modest.	706050403020100Percentage of Registered Voters Carroll Belknap Merrimack Straord Cheshire Sullivan Grafton Rockingham Coos Hillsborough ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 Democrat RepublicanAnalysis: Dante Scala, University  of New HampshireSource: New Hampshire Secretary of StateFigure 5: Share of New Hampshire Registered Voters by Political Party, 1998 and 2008	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 5For	more	detailed	analysis	of	recent	demographic	trends	in	New	Hampshire	and	a	detailed	discussion	of	methods,	see	the	Carsey	Institute	Report,	The Changing Faces of New Hampshire: Recent Demographic Trends in the Granite State	available	at	www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu.The	Granite	State	Poll	is	a	quarterly	survey	of	500	randomly	selected	New	Hampshire	adults	conducted	by	telephone.	The	sample	is	drawn	using	random	digit	dialing	so	each	household	in	New	Hampshire	has	an	equal	prob-ability	of	selection.	For	this	research,	data	from	the	Granite	State	Polls	from	Fall	2005	to	Fall	2008	were	combined.	The	weighted	sample	size	from	these	polls	is	8,300.	Data	on	migration	were	only	available	in	the	polls	from	Winter	2007	to	Fall	2008.Voter	registration	data	come	from	the	New	Hampshire	Secretary	of	State.	These	data	are	reported	for	November	of	1998	and	September	of	2008.	Net	migration	data	used	for	analysis	of	voter	registration	trends	are	from	the	Federal	State	Cooperative	Population	Estimates	Series	and	cover	the	period	from	April	2000	to	July	2007.	Net	migration	includes	migrants	between	New	Hampshire	counties	as	well	as	migrants	from	outside	the	state.		 6	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E Building knowledge for families and communitiesThe Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire  conducts independent, interdisciplinary research and  communicates its findings to policymakers, practitioners  and the general public. Huddleston Hall73 Main Street Durham, NH 03824(603) 862-2821www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu

Impact of Changing Demographics on NH Politics 10/1/2008

University of New Hampshire

	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 1CARSEY
I N S T I T U T E
NEW ENGLAND 
ISSUE BRIEF NO. 9
FALL 2008
Many	New	Voters	Make	the	Granite	State	One	to	
Watch	in	November
KENNETH M.  JOHNSON,  DANTE SCAL A,  AND ANDREW SMITH
New	Hampshire	is	an	increasingly	mobile	state,	with	considerable	turnover	of	its	residents.	This	turnover	is	changing	the	voter	base	in	the	state	with	poten-
tially	dramatic	implications	for	the	November	elections.	
Nearly	a	third	of	the	potential	voters	in	New	Hampshire	this	
November	became	eligible	to	vote	in	the	past	eight	years.	
These	potential	new	voters	are	more	likely	to	identify	with	
the	Democratic	Party	than	are	established	New	Hampshire	
voters.
Demographic	Trends
Migration	plays	a	critical	role	in	shaping	the	electorate	of	
New	Hampshire.	The	state	has	one	of	the	most	mobile		
populations	in	the	nation.	Fewer	than	45	percent	of	the		
residents	of	New	Hampshire	were	born	in	the	state.	In		
contrast,	nationwide	67	percent	of	the	native-born		
population	resides	in	the	state	in	which	they	were	born.	
Only	five	states	have	a	smaller	proportion	of	their	native-
born	population	still	living	in	their	state	of	birth.
Between	2000	and	2008,	an	estimated	321,000	people	
moved	to	New	Hampshire	from	elsewhere	in	the	United	
States.	Some	subsequently	left	the	state,	but	most	remained.	
We	estimate	that	208,000	of	these	migrants	who	are	U.S.	
citizens	of	voting	age	remain	in	the	state.	During	the	same	
period,	an	estimated	292,000	people	left	the	state.	Some	
subsequently	returned	but	most	did	not.	We	estimate	that	
199,000	of	those	who	left	and	have	not	returned	were		
citizens	of	voting	age.	In	all,	as	many	as	407,000	potential	
voters	moved	in	or	out	of	New	Hampshire	during	those	
eight	years,	a	substantial	change	for	a	state	with	an	electorate	
of	only	991,000.	
The	largest	source	of	new	migrants	to	New	Hampshire	is	
the	Boston	metropolitan	area	according	to	prior	Carsey		
Institute	research.	New	Hampshire	also	gains	significant	
numbers	of	migrants	from	the	Northeast	and	the	South.		
Migrants	to	New	Hampshire	include	many	families	with	
children	that	settle	in	the	state’s	urban	and	suburban	
southern	region	as	well	as	50–69	year-olds	who	relocate	to	
the	state’s	recreational	and	amenity	areas.	
A	second	demographic	force	influencing	the	electorate	is	
life	cycle	changes	among	its	population.	Between	2000	and	
2008,	113,000	New	Hampshire	citizens	celebrated	their	18th	
birthday.	However,	the	voter	pool	was	thinned	by	the	deaths	
of	83,000	New	Hampshire	residents.
Together	the	migrants	and	those	turning	18	in	the	past	
eight	years	represent	321,000	potential	new	voters	or	about	
one-third	of	the	residents	eligible	to	vote	this	fall	(Figure	1).	
Some	will	not	register	or	vote,	but	those	who	do	represent	a	
substantial	proportion	of	those	casting	ballots.	Comparing	
these	new	residents	with	the	established	population	of	the	
state	demonstrates	how	demographic	change	may	affect	the	
upcoming	election.	
Young
11%
Migrants
21%
Established
68%
Figure 1. Estimated Young, Migrant, and Estab-
lished Potential Voters in New Hampshire, 2008
Estimated Potential Voters = 991,000
Analysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of New Hampshire
Source: Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service
		 2	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E
New	Voters	More	Likely	to		
Identify	as	Democrats
The	influx	of	potential	voters	to	New	Hampshire	has	signifi-
cant	implications	because	they	differ	in	their	party	identifica-
tion	from	long-time	residents.	We	divide	the	potential	voters	
into	three	groups.	Young	potential	voters	are	residents	who	
are	citizens	and	turned	18	after	2000.	Migrants	are	potential	
voters	who	have	moved	to	New	Hampshire	from	elsewhere	
in	the	United	States	since	2000.	Established	potential	voters	
are	eligible	voters	who	resided	in	New	Hampshire	in	both	
2000	and	2008.
	Both	young	voters	(53	percent)	and	migrants	(52	percent)	
are	more	likely	to	identify	as	Democrats	than	are	established	
voters	(43	percent),	according	to	analysis	of	the	University		
of	New	Hampshire	Survey	Center’s	Granite	State	Polls		
(Figure	2).	In	contrast,	39	percent	of	the	established	voters	
identify	with	the	Republican	Party	compared	with	28	
percent	of	the	young	voters	and	32	percent	of	the	migrants.	
Young	voters	are	also	slightly	more	likely	to	identify	as	
undeclared	than	are	either	migrants	or	established	voters.
Although	stated	preferences	of	new	potential	voters	differ	
from	those	of	established	residents,	this	has	yet	to	be	fully	
reflected	in	voter	registration	data.	For	example,	only	17	
percent	of	young	voters	are	registered	as	Democrats,	yet	53	
percent	identify	themselves	as	such	(Figure	3).	Similarly,	the	
12	percent	of	young	potential	voters	who	have	registered	as	
Republicans	is	considerably	less	than	the	28	percent	who	
identify	as	Republicans.	Young	voters	are	also	the	least	likely	
to	have	registered,	and	among	those	who	have,	most	regis-
tered	as	undeclared.	The	trends	are	similar	among	migrants.	
Fewer	than	25	percent	have	registered	as	Democrats	and	16	
percent	as	Republicans,	although	many	more	identify	with	
each	party.	Nearly	40	percent	are	registered	as	undeclared	
and	19	percent	are	not	registered.	Established	potential	
voters	are	the	most	likely	to	be	registered	and	although	many	
register	as	undeclared,	they	are	also	the	most	likely	to	have	a	
party	affiliation.	Among	those	who	are	registered,	24	percent	
registered	as	Democrats	and	27	percent	as	Republicans.	
Differences	among	the	potential	voter	groups	may	result	
from	differences	in	key	demographic	indicators.	Migrants	to	
New	Hampshire	are	both	better	educated	and	earn	higher	
incomes	than	do	established	or	new	voters.	Nearly	65	
percent	of	the	migrants	hold	at	least	a	bachelor’s	degree	and	
38	percent	have	household	incomes	of	$100,000	or	more.	In	
comparison,	52	percent	of	the	established	group	has	at	least	
a	bachelor’s	degree,	and	29	percent	have	household	incomes	
of	more	than	$100,000.	As	would	be	expected,	younger	
voters	have	lower	levels	of	education	(29	percent	have	at	least	
a	bachelor’s	degree)	and	lower	incomes	(15	percent	of	young	
households	have	incomes	over	$100,000)	than	their	older	
and	more	experienced	colleagues.	
Where	the	three	voting	groups	reside	also	differs,	with	
implications	for	the	election.	Most	recent	migrants	to	New	
Hampshire	are	clustered	near	the	Massachusetts	border	
on	the	periphery	of	the	Boston	metropolitan	area,	in	the	Sea-
coast	region,	or	in	the	Connecticut	Valley.	Many	new	voters	
also	reside	in	the	suburban	region	near	the	Massachusetts	
border	and	Seacoast,	but	Manchester	is	also	popular	among	
the	younger	group.	Established	voters	cluster	in	the	same	
Massachusetts	suburban	border	region,	along	the	Seacoast,	
and	also	in	the	Central/Lake	regions.		
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
 Young Voters Migrants Established Voters
 Democrat Undeclared Republican
Figure 2: Party Identification of Young Voters, 
Migrants, and Established Voters
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
 Young Voters Migrants Established Voters
 Registered Democrat Undeclared Registered  Republican Not registered/don’t know
Analysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of New Hampshire
Source: Granite State Polls, University of New Hampshire
Figure 3: Voter Registration of Young Voters, 
Migrants, and Established Voters
Analysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey Institute, University of  New Hampshire
Source: Granite State Polls, University of New Hampshire
	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 3
Changing	Patterns	of	Voter		
Registration	
The	impact	of	changing	demographics	is	reflected	in	the	
changing	voter	registration	patterns	since	the	1990s.	After	
the	1998	election,	there	were	272,000	registered	Republicans	
in	New	Hampshire	and	203,000	registered	Democrats,	a	
difference	of	70,000.		Ten	years	later,	the	difference	had	nar-
rowed	to	6,000	more	registered	Republicans	(271,000)	than	
Democrats	(265,000).	Thus,	Democratic	registrations	grew	
by	30	percent,	between	1998	and	2008,	while	Republican	
registrations	remained	stable.	Statewide	voter	registration	
grew	by	14	percent	overall.
In	general,	New	Hampshire	counties	with	greater	net	
migration	gains	experienced	larger	gains	in	Democratic	
registrations.	The	relationship	between	migration	and	
Republican	registration	trends	is	more	complicated,	but	
generally	smaller	migration	gains	are	correlated	with	smaller	
gains	or	larger	losses	in	Republican	registrations.	
Hillsborough	and	Rockingham	counties,	where	half	of	
Granite	State	residents	live,	each	had	modest	migration	
and	Democratic	registrations	gains,	but	both	were	below	
statewide	Democratic	growth	(Figure	4).	In	contrast,	
Republican	gains	remained	stagnant	in	Hillsborough,	as	they	
did	statewide.	Republican	registrations	did	grow	modestly	
in	Rockingham	County,	in	part,	due	to	the	composition	of	
migration	stream	into	the	county.	More	Republicans	were	in	
this	migration	stream	than	in	those	flowing	into	most	other	
areas	of	the	state,	according	to	Granite	State	poll	data.
The	most	dramatic	changes	in	partisanship	took	place	in	
traditionally	Republican	counties	such	as	Grafton,	Carroll,	
and	Belknap.	The	share	of	Democrats	in	these	counties	grew	
at	nearly	twice	the	statewide	Democratic	growth	rate,	in	part	
because	the	base	was	small	to	begin	with.	Such	rapid	gains	
also	coincided	with	large	migration	gains	in	Carroll	and	
Belknap	counties,	suggesting	that	voter	turnover	may	have	
contributed	to	these	Democratic	gains.	Grafton’s	migration	
gains	were	more	modest,	but	its	Democratic	gains	were	
substantial,	suggesting	that	more	subtle	demographic	forces	
and	other	factors	were	at	work.	The	link	between	migra-
tion	(which	reflects	population	turnover)	and	registration	
trends	gains	further	credence	when	examining	Republican	
registration	losses.	Carroll	and	Grafton	experienced	the	
second	and	third	largest	declines	in	Republican	registrations	
despite	significant	migration	gains.	Only	Coos	County,	
which	experienced	little	migration	gain,	experienced	a	larger	
Republican	loss.	
The	growing	number	of	Democratic	and	stable	number	of	
Republican	registered	voters	has	changed	the	proportions	of	
each	party	in	counties	across	the	state.	Most	of	these	changes	
in	voter	partisanship	occurred	outside	the	major	urban	and	
suburban	areas	in	Rockingham	and	Hillsborough	Counties	
(Figure	5).	For	example,	Republican	registrations	declined	
modestly	from	35	to	33	percent	in	Rockingham	County	and	
from	37	to	32	percent	in	Hillsborough	County	while	Demo-
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
 Carroll Belknap Merrimack Straord Cheshire Sullivan Grafton Rockingham Coos Hillsborough
 Net Migration Democrat Republican
Figure 4: Change in Democratic and Republican Registration and in Net Migration for  
New Hampshire Counties
Analysis: Dante Scala, University  
of New Hampshire
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of 
State and Census Bureau
		 4	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E
cratic	registration	rose	slightly	from	25	to	29	percent	and	
29	to	30	percent,	respectively.	The	proportion	undeclared,	
which	is	the	difference	between	the	party	registrations	and	
100	percent	increased	slightly	in	Hillsborough	County		
and	declined	slightly	in	Rockingham	County.	For	the	other		
half	of	the	state’s	voters	who	live	in	the	eight	least	populated	
counties,	Democratic	registrations	increased	rapidly	while	
Republican	registrations	decreased.	For	example,	Demo-
cratic	registrations	rose	from	16	to	22	percent	in	Carroll	
County	and	from	23	to	32	percent	in	Grafton	County,	while	
Republican	registrations	diminished	from	43	to	34	percent	
in	Carroll	County	and	from	37	to	28	percent	in	Grafton	
County.	These	Republican	losses	occurred	despite	popula-
tion	gains	in	both	counties	between	2000	and	2008.	Detailed	
analysis	suggests	that	diminished	Republican	dominance	
in	these	traditional	Yankee	Republican	counties	may	well	
be	due,	at	least	in	part,	to	the	turnover	in	the	pool	of	voters	
fueled	by	migration	and	generation	changes.	
Conclusion
The	voting	population	of	New	Hampshire	is	among	the		
most	mobile	in	the	United	States.	About	one-third		
of	the	potential	voters	are	new	to	the	state’s	electoral	process	
since	2000.	Both	young	voters	and	recent	migrants	are	more	
likely	to	identify	themselves	as	Democrats	and	less	likely	to	
identify	with	Republicans	than	are	established	voters.	Voter	
turnover	fueled	by	demographic	change	is	also	affecting	
voter	registration,	with	a	growing	Democratic	base	and		
stable	or	declining	numbers	of	registered	Republicans.	We	
conclude	that	demographic	change	has	significant	implica-
tions	for	the	November	election.	
About	this	Brief
Kenneth M. Johnson	is	senior	demographer	at	the	
Carsey	Institute	and	a	professor	of	sociology	at	the		
University	of	New	Hampshire.	Dante Scala	is	an	
associate	professor	and	Chair	of	the	Political	Science		
Department	at	the	University	of	New	Hampshire.		
Andrew Smith	directs	the	Survey	Center	at	the	
University	of	New	Hampshire,	where	he	is	also	an		
associate	professor	of	political	science.	Skye	MacKay		
and	Allison	Churilla	of	the	Carsey	Institute	provided		
valuable	research	assistance	on	the	project.
Demographic	data	for	this	study	comes	from	the	U.S.		
Census	Bureau	and	from	the	county	to	county	migration	
series	of	the	Internal	Revenue	Service.	The	migration	
estimates	derived	from	the	IRS	data	should	be	interpreted	
with	caution.	Although	IRS	data	is	comprehensive,	those	
who	do	not	file	returns	or	are	filing	their	first	return	are	
excluded	from	the	migration	analysis.	Also,	an	unknown	
number	of	in-migrants	to	New	Hampshire	during	the	
study	period	left	the	state	by	2008.	The	overall	impact	of	
these	factors	is	unknown	because	little	research	exists	on	
the	topic,	but	our	models	assumed	the	effect	is	modest.	
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Pe
rce
nt
ag
e o
f R
eg
ist
er
ed
 V
ot
er
s
 Carroll Belknap Merrimack Straord Cheshire Sullivan Grafton Rockingham Coos Hillsborough
 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08 ’98 ’08
 Democrat Republican
Analysis: Dante Scala, University  
of New Hampshire
Source: New Hampshire Secretary 
of State
Figure 5: Share of New Hampshire Registered Voters by Political Party, 1998 and 2008
	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E 	 5
For	more	detailed	analysis	of	recent	demographic	trends	
in	New	Hampshire	and	a	detailed	discussion	of	methods,	
see	the	Carsey	Institute	Report,	The Changing Faces of New 
Hampshire: Recent Demographic Trends in the Granite State	
available	at	www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu.
The	Granite	State	Poll	is	a	quarterly	survey	of	500	
randomly	selected	New	Hampshire	adults	conducted	by	
telephone.	The	sample	is	drawn	using	random	digit	dialing	
so	each	household	in	New	Hampshire	has	an	equal	prob-
ability	of	selection.	For	this	research,	data	from	the	Granite	
State	Polls	from	Fall	2005	to	Fall	2008	were	combined.	The	
weighted	sample	size	from	these	polls	is	8,300.	Data	on	
migration	were	only	available	in	the	polls	from	Winter	2007	
to	Fall	2008.
Voter	registration	data	come	from	the	New	Hampshire	
Secretary	of	State.	These	data	are	reported	for	November	of	
1998	and	September	of	2008.	Net	migration	data	used	for	
analysis	of	voter	registration	trends	are	from	the	Federal	
State	Cooperative	Population	Estimates	Series	and	cover	the	
period	from	April	2000	to	July	2007.	Net	migration	includes	
migrants	between	New	Hampshire	counties	as	well	as	
migrants	from	outside	the	state.
		 6	 C A R S E Y 	 I N S T I T U T E
 
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https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1348&amp;context=survey_center_polls

Impact of Changing Demographics on NH Politics 10/1/2008

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