Republicans Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass hold sizeable leads in races for New Hampshire‚Äôs 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.  Election: 200

Survey Center, UNH

English

University of New Hampshire

THE WMUR / UNH POLL
University of New Hampshire
GOP CANDIDATES LEAD IN BOTH CONGRESSIONAL RACES
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 603/862-2226 FOR RELEASE
UNH Survey Center October 11, 2002
www.unh.edu/survey-center
DURHAM, NH --  Republicans Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass hold sizeable leads in races for New Hampshire’s
1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / UNH Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire
Survey Center.  The WMUR / UNH Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV of Manchester, New Hampshire.  Six hundred fifty-
one (651) New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed between October 3 and October 8, 2002 (margin of sampling
error, +/-4 percent).   Included in this sample are 339 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling
error, +/-5 percent) and 312 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District (margin of sampling error, +/-5.5 percent). (For
more detailed results, visit the Survey Center web site at www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on Press Releases.)
1st Congressional District
In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Democratic State Representative Martha Fuller Clark is running
against Republican State Representative Jeb Bradley.  Clark is making her second run at the seat (she lost a close race to
John Sununu in 2000) and has been very effective raising money for the race.  Clark also had the benefit of not being
challenged in the Democratic primary.  Bradley is making his first run at a Congressional seat after serving 12 years in the
New Hampshire House of Representatives.  Bradley survived an eight person primary in September.
In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, Bradley holds a sizeable lead over Clark.  Currently, 47 percent of likely
voters in the 1st Congressional District support Bradley, 34 percent support Clark, 1 percent support Libertarian Dan
Belforti, 5 percent support some other candidate, and 13 percent are undecided.
Bradley holds this lead over Clark in part because voters in the 1st District have a favorable opinion of him.
Currently, 34 percent of likely 1st District voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bradley, 15 percent have an
unfavorable opinion, 15 percent are neutral, and 35 percent don’t know enough about him to say.  Bradley’s net
favorability rating (the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion of him subtracted from the percentage who have a
favorable opinion) among 1st District likely voters is a solid +19 percent.
Voters in the 1st District do not have a favorable opinion of Clark.  Currently, 30 percent of likely voters in the 1st
District have a favorable opinion of her, 37 have an unfavorable opinion of her, 12 percent are neutral, and 21 percent
don’t know enough to say.  Clarks’s net favorability rating is –7 percent in the 1st Congressional District.   It is extremely
difficult for candidates with negative net favorability ratings to win elections.
Clark gets her strongest support from Democrats, liberals, voters 65 and older, and supporters of legal abortions.
Bradley’s strongest support comes from Republicans, voters living in the Central/Lakes region, abortion opponents, and
gun owners.
There is also a gender gap in this race.  Clark holds a 41 percent to 26 percent advantage among women while
Bradley holds a 55 percent to 38 percent advantage among men.
2nd Congressional District
Incumbent Republican Charlie Bass currently holds a comfortable lead over Democrat Katrina Swett in New
Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District.  In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, 52 percent of likely voters in the 2nd
District support Bass, 30 percent support Swett, 5 percent support some other candidate, and 14 percent are undecided.
Support for Bass has declined somewhat since June when 58 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for Bass in
November, 32 percent favored Swett, 2 percent favored some other candidate, and 8 percent were undecided.
Bass looks hard to beat as he also enjoys high favorability ratings within the 2nd District.  Fifty-one percent of
likely voters in the 2nd District have a favorable opinion of Bass, 25 percent are unfavorable, 11 percent are neutral, and
13 percent don’t know enough about him to say.  Bass’s net favorability rating among 2nd District voters is a high +26
percent.
Swett’s favorability suffers from lack of name recognition in the 2nd District and is viewed unfavorably by voters
who have an opinion.  Among 2nd District likely voters, 26 percent have a favorable opinion of Katrina Swett, 33 percent
are unfavorable, 15 percent are neutral, and 27 percent don’t know enough to say.  Swett’s net favorability rating in the
2nd District is –7 percent.  Again, it is very difficult for a candidate with negative net favorability ratings to win elections,
particularly when they are facing a popular incumbent.
Bass holds leads over Swett among most demographic groups in the 2nd District.  His strongest support comes
from Republicans, men, gun owners, and abortion opponents.  Swett’s strongest supporters are Democrats, women, and
voters with a post-graduate education.
NH SENATE & NH HOUSE
Turning to the New Hampshire Senate, likely November voters were asked if they would vote for the
Democratic or Republican candidate from their district.  In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, 40 percent of likely
voters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate in their NH Senate District, 35 percent favor the Democratic
candidate, and 25 percent are undecided.
In generic New Hampshire House races, Republicans also lead.  Currently, 39 percent of likely voters say they
will vote for the Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives, 32 percent favor the Democratic
candidate, and 29 percent are undecided.
First Congressional District
(Likely November Voters)
Oct. ‘02
Bradley (R) 47%
Clark (D) 34
Belforti (L) 1
Other 5
Don’t Know 13
(N=298)
Second Congressional District
(Likely November Voters)
June ‘02 Oct. ‘02
Bass (R) 58% 52%
Swett (D) 32 30
Other 2 5
Don’t Know 8 14
(N=258) (N=266)
NH State Senate
(Likely November Voters)
Oct. ‘02
Republican 40%
Democrat 35
Undecided 25
(N=586)
NH State Senate
(Likely November Voters)
Oct. ‘02
Republican 39%
Democrat 32
Undecided 29
(N=573)
Favorability Ratings (Likely Voters)
Favorable Unfavorable Neutral DK Enough Net (N)
Bass (Statewide) 46% 20% 12% 22% +26 (640)
Bass (2nd District) 51 25 11 13 +26 (302)
Bradley (Statewide) 25 15 17 43 +10 (637)
Bradley (1st District) 34 15 15 35 +19 (337)
Clark (Statewide) 27 29 14 30 -2 (639)
Clark (1st District) 30 37 12 21 -7 (339)
Swett (Statewide) 22 29 13 36 -7 (641)
Swett (2nd District) 26 33 15 27 -7 (302)
Net Favorability Ratings
Registered Voters Likely Nov. Voters
Oct. ‘01 Feb. ’02 April ’02 June ’02 Oct. ‘02
Bass (Statewide) +42% +40% +36% +31% +26%
Bass (2nd District) +42 +43 +31 +34 +26
Bradley (Statewide) - - - - +10
Bradley (1st District) - - - - +19
Clark (Statewide) +13 +13 +16 +14 -2
Clark (1st District) +12 +16 +20 +19 -7
Swett (Statewide) - - -6 +1 -7
Swett (2nd District) - - -7 +4 -7
WMUR / UNH Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire
Survey Center from October 3 to October 8, 2002.  A random sample of 651 likely voters in New Hampshire was
interviewed by telephone.  Included in this sample are 339 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District (margin of
sampling error, +/-5 percent) and 312 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District (margin of sampling error, +/-5.5
percent).  In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percent.  Results reported for
other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent
sex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-
sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.
Respondents to the WMUR / UNH Poll were asked:
“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people running for office in November.  As I read each name, please
say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.
• “Charlie Bass.”
• “Craig Benson.”
• “Jeb Bradley.”
• “Martha Fuller Clark.”
• “Mark Fernald.”
• “Jeanne Shaheen.”
• “John Sununu.”
• “Katrina Swett.”
• “I’d like you to think about the election for your representative to the U.S. Congress.  As of today, do you plan to
vote for Jeb Bradley, the Republican candidate ... Martha Fuller Clark, the Democratic candidate ... Dan Belforti
(BELL-FORT-EE), the Libertarian candidate … or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. Congress at this time?”
ROTATE CANDIDATES
• “I’d like you to think about the election for your representative to the U.S. Congress.  As of today, do you plan to
vote for Charlie Bass, the Republican candidate ... Katrina Swett, the Democratic candidate ... Rosalie Babiarz (BAB-
EE-ARZ), the Libertarian … or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. Congress at this time?”  ROTATE
CANDIDATES
• "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.
As of today . . . do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of
Representatives . . . or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?"
• "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  As of today . . . do
you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate . . . or do you plan to
skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?"
U.S. Congress - First District
Bradley Clark Belforti Other Undecided (N)
STATEWIDE 47% 34% 1% 5% 13% 298
Registered Democrat 13 66 3 7 11 80
Undeclared 36 35 2 6 21 117
Registered Republican 85 7 0 3 5 101
Conservative GOP 85 3 2 3 6 87
Swing Voter 41 32 2 7 18 155
Liberal DEM 0 88 0 3 10 55
Democrat 16 69 0 4 10 100
Independent 32 28 6 8 26 42
Republican 72 12 1 5 10 142
May vote 23 46 0 5 26 28
Will vote unless emergency 37 39 1 6 16 102
Will definitely vote 56 29 2 5 9 168
18 to 29 45 27 4 5 19 79
30 to 45 52 32 0 5 12 116
46 to 64 47 33 3 3 14 44
65 and over 40 50 0 5 4 42
5 years or less in NH 32 49 5 3 12 37
6 to 10 years 52 19 6 14 8 22
11 to 20 years 50 35 0 2 14 62
More than 20 years 48 31 1 6 14 169
Male 55 26 3 5 10 148
Female 38 41 0 5 16 150
High school or less 50 32 0 6 12 81
Some college 39 33 2 6 20 80
College graduate 54 31 2 5 9 82
Post-graduate 41 42 3 4 10 51
Abortion always legal 35 48 0 5 12 147
Legal in some cases 58 23 4 4 11 101
Always illegal 67 13 0 5 16 29
Gun owning household 58 27 0 6 10 87
No guns in household 43 37 2 4 14 199
U.S. Congress - Second District
Bass Swett Other Undecided (N)
STATEWIDE 52% 30% 5% 14% 266
Registered Democrat 13 77 0 10 65
Undeclared 47 23 10 20 114
Registered Republican 87 3 2 8 87
Conservative GOP 90 0 1 10 76
Swing Voter 48 28 9 15 137
Liberal DEM 6 76 3 14 53
Democrat 18 64 5 13 104
Independent 44 18 10 28 47
Republican 86 4 2 8 112
May vote 48 13 13 26 23
Will vote unless emergency 51 23 7 18 75
Will definitely vote 52 35 3 10 168
18 to 29 49 21 10 20 60
30 to 45 46 34 4 16 102
46 to 64 57 31 5 6 46
65 and over 59 29 3 8 54
5 years or less in NH 51 33 4 12 39
6 to 10 years 46 25 18 11 24
11 to 20 years 31 50 4 15 51
More than 20 years 59 23 4 14 152
Male 63 22 4 11 129
Female 41 37 7 15 137
High school or less 54 26 2 18 47
Some college 49 34 6 11 56
College graduate 57 24 6 13 92
Post-graduate 44 37 5 14 70
Abortion always legal 43 33 6 18 131
Legal in some cases 60 29 3 9 92
Always illegal 78 10 0 11 24
Gun owning household 60 19 4 17 96
No guns in household 46 37 6 11 164
N.H. Senate
Republican Democrat Undecided (N)
STATEWIDE 40% 35% 25% 586
Registered Democrat 3 76 21 156
Undeclared 31 33 36 228
Registered Republican 80 4 16 202
Conservative GOP 85 1 14 165
Swing Voter 30 35 35 303
Liberal DEM 3 82 15 118
Democrat 5 79 16 221
Independent 23 21 56 85
Republican 76 3 21 263
May vote 29 41 30 55
Will vote unless emergency 34 35 31 176
Will definitely vote 45 33 22 354
1st District 44 31 26 307
2nd District 36 39 24 279
Northern NH 43 33 23 72
Western NH 30 46 24 57
Central/Lakes 41 32 27 92
Hillsborough County 42 31 27 183
Seacoast 40 36 24 181
18 to 29 45 36 19 150
30 to 45 39 36 25 232
46 to 64 41 30 29 89
65 and over 39 34 28 96
5 years or less in NH 38 38 24 80
6 to 10 years 49 30 21 45
11 to 20 years 39 45 17 117
More than 20 years 40 31 29 335
Male 50 26 25 278
Female 32 43 25 307
High school or less 45 28 27 136
Some college 40 34 26 148
College graduate 43 34 23 177
Post-graduate 30 44 25 123
Abortion always legal 29 48 24 281
Legal in some cases 53 22 25 206
Always illegal 60 19 21 57
Gun owning household 49 24 27 191
No guns in household 35 41 24 374
N.H. House
Republican Democrat Undecided (N)
STATEWIDE 39% 32% 29% 573
Registered Democrat 5 73 22 154
Undeclared 30 29 41 221
Registered Republican 76 2 21 198
Conservative GOP 82 0 18 161
Swing Voter 29 32 39 299
Liberal DEM 6 75 19 112
Democrat 5 75 19 214
Independent 19 17 64 84
Republican 75 1 24 256
May vote 29 36 35 55
Will vote unless emergency 33 30 36 171
Will definitely vote 44 32 24 346
1st District 43 28 29 301
2nd District 35 36 29 271
Northern NH 44 27 29 72
Western NH 29 42 29 53
Central/Lakes 40 34 26 88
Hillsborough County 38 29 33 180
Seacoast 41 33 26 180
18 to 29 41 31 27 144
30 to 45 39 30 31 222
46 to 64 37 32 30 92
65 and over 41 35 24 93
5 years or less in NH 35 34 31 81
6 to 10 years 52 22 26 46
11 to 20 years 33 41 26 117
More than 20 years 41 29 30 319
Male 49 25 27 275
Female 31 38 31 298
High school or less 47 27 27 127
Some college 39 33 28 140
College graduate 42 29 29 180
Post-graduate 27 40 33 124
Abortion always legal 29 42 29 278
Legal in some cases 49 22 29 196
Always illegal 54 17 29 58
Gun owning household 51 21 28 182
No guns in household 34 37 29 371
Favorability Rating - Charlie Bass
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)
STATEWIDE 46% 12% 20% 22% 640
Registered Democrat 27 11 41 21 166
Undeclared 42 14 14 30 261
Registered Republican 67 10 10 14 213
Conservative GOP 64 9 10 16 173
Swing Voter 47 11 18 23 336
Liberal DEM 17 17 37 28 122
Democrat 29 14 33 24 234
Independent 51 11 15 22 100
Republican 60 9 10 21 276
May vote 29 22 8 40 71
Will vote unless emergency 44 11 17 27 199
Will definitely vote 51 10 23 16 371
1st District 42 13 15 30 339
2nd District 51 11 25 13 302
Northern NH 46 13 17 25 83
Western NH 46 13 23 18 59
Central/Lakes 53 11 24 11 101
Hillsborough County 48 10 26 16 194
Seacoast 41 13 12 34 203
18 to 29 41 12 15 31 163
30 to 45 46 14 21 19 244
46 to 64 50 7 23 20 97
65 and over 56 7 18 19 99
5 years or less in NH 28 14 10 47 89
6 to 10 years 45 12 21 22 48
11 to 20 years 38 11 27 25 123
More than 20 years 54 11 20 15 359
Male 52 9 19 20 305
Female 41 14 20 25 335
High school or less 55 13 13 19 147
Some college 39 13 23 25 155
College graduate 50 8 19 23 197
Post-graduate 41 12 25 22 127
Abortion always legal 39 10 24 26 303
Legal in some cases 55 13 15 17 222
Always illegal 61 8 7 24 60
Gun owning household 53 13 16 18 208
No guns in household 44 11 21 25 399
Favorability Rating - Jeb Bradley
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)
STATEWIDE 25% 17% 15% 43% 637
Registered Democrat 17 17 25 42 165
Undeclared 20 18 15 46 260
Registered Republican 38 16 7 39 212
Conservative GOP 39 15 10 35 173
Swing Voter 22 19 14 45 336
Liberal DEM 15 14 24 47 122
Democrat 16 17 21 45 234
Independent 20 11 21 48 100
Republican 33 19 8 40 276
May vote 19 16 16 49 69
Will vote unless emergency 19 20 13 48 197
Will definitely vote 30 16 16 39 370
1st District 34 15 15 35 337
2nd District 15 20 15 51 300
Northern NH 30 16 10 44 82
Western NH 11 16 12 61 59
Central/Lakes 31 16 14 39 99
Hillsborough County 24 19 20 38 195
Seacoast 27 17 14 43 202
18 to 29 31 14 16 39 163
30 to 45 25 20 14 41 244
46 to 64 20 15 17 48 97
65 and over 20 12 15 53 100
5 years or less in NH 25 12 12 51 89
6 to 10 years 23 16 21 40 48
11 to 20 years 31 19 10 40 123
More than 20 years 23 17 17 43 360
Male 25 16 13 45 304
Female 26 18 17 40 333
High school or less 28 13 15 44 147
Some college 20 21 15 44 155
College graduate 28 17 13 42 197
Post-graduate 24 18 17 42 127
Abortion always legal 22 16 14 47 303
Legal in some cases 25 20 16 39 223
Always illegal 39 13 14 34 60
Gun owning household 26 19 8 47 208
No guns in household 25 16 18 41 399
Favorability Rating - Martha Fuller Clark
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)
STATEWIDE 27% 14% 29% 30% 639
Registered Democrat 48 12 12 27 166
Undeclared 26 17 24 33 261
Registered Republican 13 11 48 28 212
Conservative GOP 7 9 54 30 173
Swing Voter 30 16 23 30 336
Liberal DEM 50 10 8 32 122
Democrat 45 14 11 29 234
Independent 26 15 28 32 100
Republican 14 11 44 32 276
May vote 26 16 24 34 69
Will vote unless emergency 28 15 24 33 199
Will definitely vote 28 12 33 28 371
1st District 30 12 37 21 339
2nd District 24 16 20 40 300
Northern NH 20 12 26 43 83
Western NH 14 14 15 56 59
Central/Lakes 31 11 37 21 100
Hillsborough County 28 15 28 29 194
Seacoast 33 14 31 23 203
18 to 29 27 11 30 31 163
30 to 45 26 15 30 29 244
46 to 64 24 15 32 30 97
65 and over 33 5 22 39 99
5 years or less in NH 28 12 21 39 89
6 to 10 years 23 12 36 29 48
11 to 20 years 31 15 21 33 123
More than 20 years 26 13 33 28 359
Male 20 12 37 31 305
Female 34 15 21 30 334
High school or less 22 15 32 31 147
Some college 25 13 29 33 155
College graduate 29 10 32 30 197
Post-graduate 36 15 21 29 127
Abortion always legal 37 11 23 30 303
Legal in some cases 19 17 33 32 222
Always illegal 21 7 37 35 60
Gun owning household 21 14 40 25 208
No guns in household 31 12 23 34 399
Favorability Rating - Katrina Swett
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)
STATEWIDE 22% 13% 29% 36% 641
Registered Democrat 43 12 14 31 166
Undeclared 16 14 26 44 262
Registered Republican 12 11 46 30 213
Conservative GOP 11 13 47 29 173
Swing Voter 20 14 27 39 336
Liberal DEM 43 12 11 35 121
Democrat 35 13 15 37 233
Independent 22 13 29 36 100
Republican 12 13 41 34 277
May vote 18 15 18 49 72
Will vote unless emergency 18 15 24 43 199
Will definitely vote 25 11 34 29 371
1st District 19 11 27 44 339
2nd District 26 15 33 27 302
Northern NH 22 16 23 38 84
Western NH 26 14 32 28 59
Central/Lakes 25 12 36 27 101
Hillsborough County 23 14 35 28 195
Seacoast 18 10 23 50 203
18 to 29 17 11 30 42 163
30 to 45 24 16 31 29 244
46 to 64 19 13 34 34 97
65 and over 28 6 24 42 100
5 years or less in NH 19 6 14 61 89
6 to 10 years 16 13 29 42 48
11 to 20 years 28 14 27 31 123
More than 20 years 21 14 34 30 360
Male 16 11 39 33 306
Female 27 15 20 38 336
High school or less 18 10 29 43 147
Some college 23 14 28 35 155
College graduate 21 14 32 33 196
Post-graduate 26 14 27 32 127
Abortion always legal 23 12 24 41 302
Legal in some cases 20 16 34 30 223
Always illegal 17 12 37 34 60
Gun owning household 15 16 33 36 208
No guns in household 26 12 27 35 399


WMUR / UNH Poll - GOP Candidates Lead in Both NH Congressional Races 10/11/2002

UNH Scholars' Repository

THE WMUR / UNH POLLUniversity of New HampshireGOP CANDIDATES LEAD IN BOTH CONGRESSIONAL RACESBy: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 603/862-2226 FOR RELEASEUNH Survey Center October 11, 2002www.unh.edu/survey-centerDURHAM, NH -  Republicans Jeb Bradley and Charlie Bass hold sizeable leads in races for New Hampshire’s1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.These findings are based on the latest WMUR / UNH Poll, conducted by the University of New HampshireSurvey Center.  The WMUR / UNH Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV of Manchester, New Hampshire.  Six hundred fifty-one (651) New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed between October 3 and October 8, 2002 (margin of samplingerror, +/-4 percent).   Included in this sample are 339 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District (margin of samplingerror, +/-5 percent) and 312 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District (margin of sampling error, +/-5.5 percent). (Formore detailed results, visit the Survey Center web site at www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on Press Releases.)1st Congressional DistrictIn New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Democratic State Representative Martha Fuller Clark is runningagainst Republican State Representative Jeb Bradley.  Clark is making her second run at the seat (she lost a close race toJohn Sununu in 2000) and has been very effective raising money for the race.  Clark also had the benefit of not beingchallenged in the Democratic primary.  Bradley is making his first run at a Congressional seat after serving 12 years in theNew Hampshire House of Representatives.  Bradley survived an eight person primary in September.In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, Bradley holds a sizeable lead over Clark.  Currently, 47 percent of likelyvoters in the 1st Congressional District support Bradley, 34 percent support Clark, 1 percent support Libertarian DanBelforti, 5 percent support some other candidate, and 13 percent are undecided.Bradley holds this lead over Clark in part because voters in the 1st District ave a favorable opinion of him.Currently, 34 percent of likely 1st District voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bradley, 15 percent have anunfavorable opinion, 15 percent are neutral, and 35 percent don’t know enough about him to say.  Bradley’s netfavorability rating (the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion of him subtracted from the percentage who have afavorable opinion) among 1st District likely voters is a solid +19 percent.Voters in the 1st District do not have a favorable opinion of Clark.  Currently, 30 percent of likely voters in the 1stDistrict have a favorable opinion of her, 37 have an unfavorable opinion of her, 12 percent are neutral, and 21 percentdon’t know enough to say.  Clarks’s net favorability rating is –7 percent in the 1st Congressional District.   It is extremelydifficult for candidates with negative net favorability ratings to win elections.Clark gets her strongest support from Democrats, liberals, voters 65 and older, and supporters of legal abortions.Bradley’s strongest support comes from Republicans, voters living in the Central/Lakes region, abortion opponents, andgun owners.There is also a gender gap in this race.  Clark holds a 41 percent to 26 percent advantage among women whileBradley holds a 55 percent to 38 percent advantage among men.2nd Congressional DistrictIncumbent Republican Charlie Bass currently holds a comfortable lead over Democrat Katrina Swett in NewHampshire’s 2nd Congressional District.  In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, 52 percent of likely voters in the 2ndDistrict support Bass, 30 percent support Swett, 5 percent support some other candidate, and 14 percent are undecided.Support for Bass has declined somewhat since June when 58 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for Bass inNovember, 32 percent favored Swett, 2 percent favored some other candidate, and 8 percent were undecided.Bass looks hard to beat as he also enjoys high favorability ratings within the 2nd District.  Fifty-one percent oflikely voters in the 2nd District have a favorable opinion of Bass, 25 percent are unfavorable, 11 percent are neutral, and13 percent don’t know enough about him to say.  Bass’s net favorability rating among 2nd District voters is a high +26percent.Swett’s favorability suffers from lack of name recognition in the 2nd D strict and is viewed unfavorably by voterswho have an opinion.  Among 2nd District likely voters, 26 percent have a favorable opinion of Katrina Swett, 33 percentare unfavorable, 15 percent are neutral, and 27 percent don’t know enough to say.  Swett’s ne  favor bility rating in the2nd District is –7 percent.  Again, it is very difficult for a candidate with negative net favorability ratings to win elections,particularly when they are facing a popular incumbent.Bass holds leads over Swett among most demographic groups in the 2nd Dis rict.  His strongest support comesfrom Republicans, men, gun owners, and abortion opponents.  Swett’s strongest supporters are Democrats, women, andvoters with a post-graduate education.NH SENATE & NH HOUSETurning to the New Hampshire Senate, likely November voters were asked if they would vote for theDemocratic or Republican candidate from their district.  In the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll, 40 percent of likelyvoters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate in their NH Senate District, 35 percent favor the Democraticcandidate, and 25 percent are undecided.In generic New Hampshire House races, Republicans also lead.  Currently, 39 percent of likely voters say theywill vote for the Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives, 32 percent favor the Democraticcandidate, and 29 percent are undecided.First Congressional District(Likely November Voters)Oct. ‘02Bradley (R) 47%Clark (D) 34Belforti (L) 1Other 5Don’t Know 13(N=298)Second Congressional District(Likely November Voters)June ‘02 Oct. ‘02Bass (R) 58% 52%Swett (D) 32 30Other 2 5Don’t Know 8 14(N=258) (N=26)NH State Senate(Likely November Voters)Oct. ‘02Republican 40%Democrat 35Undecided 25(N=586)NH State Senate(Likely November Voters)Oct. ‘02Republican 39%Democrat 32Undecided 29(N=573)Favorability Ratings (Likely Voters)Favorable Unfavorable Neutral DK Enough Net (N)Bass (Statewide) 46% 20% 12% 22% +26 (640)Bass (2nd District) 51 25 11 13 +26 (302)Bradley (Statewide) 25 15 17 43 +10 (637)Bradley (1st District) 34 15 15 35 +19 (337)Clark (Statewide) 27 29 14 30 -2 (639)Clark (1st District) 30 37 12 21 -7 (339)Swett (Statewide) 22 29 13 36 -7 (641)Swett (2nd District) 26 33 15 27 -7 (302)Net Favorability RatingsRegistered Voters Likely Nov. VotersOct. ‘01 Feb. ’02 April ’02 June ’02 Oct. ‘02Bass (Statewide) +42% +40% +36% +31% +26%Bass (2nd District) +42 +43 +31 +34 +26Bradley (Statewide) - - - - +10Bradley (1st District) - - - - +19Clark (Statewide) +13 +13 +16 +14 -2Clark (1st District) +12 +16 +20 +19 -7Swett (Statewide) - - -6 +1 -7Swett (2nd District) - - -7 +4 -7WMUR / UNH Poll MethodologyThese findings are based on the most recent WMUR / UNH Poll conducted by the University of New HampshireSurvey Center from October 3 to October 8, 2002.  A random sample of 651 likely voters in New Hampshire wasinterviewed by telephone.  Included in this sample are 339 likely voters in the 1st C ngressional District (margin ofsampling error, +/-5 percent) and 312 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District (margin of sampling error, +/-5.5percent).  In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percent.  Results reported forother subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondentsex, and region of the state.  In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.Respondents to the WMUR / UNH Poll were asked:“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people running for office in November.  As I read each name, pleasesay if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.· “Charlie Bass.”· “Craig Benson.”· “Jeb Bradley.”· “Martha Fuller Clark.”· “Mark Fernald.”· “Jeanne Shaheen.”· “John Sununu.”· “Katrina Swett.”· “I’d like you to think about the election for your representative to the U.S. Congress.  As of today, do you plan tovote for Jeb Bradley, the Republican candidate ... Martha Fuller Clark, the Democratic candidate ... Dan Belforti(BELL-FORT-EE), the Libertarian candidate … or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. Congress at this time?”ROTATE CANDIDATES· “I’d like you to think about the election for your representative to the U.S. Congress.  As of today, do you plan tovote for Charlie Bass, the Republican candidate ... KatrinaSwett, the Democratic candidate ... Rosalie Babiarz (BAB-EE-ARZ), the Libertarian … or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. Congress at this time?”  ROTATECANDIDATES· "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.As of today . . . do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire House ofRepresentatives . . . or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?"· "Please think about the upcoming election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate.  As of today . . . doyou plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the New Hampshire Senate . . . or do you plan toskip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?"U.S. Congress - First DistrictBradley Clark Belforti Other Undecided (N)STATEWIDE 47% 34% 1% 5% 13% 298Registered Democrat 13 66 3 7 11 80Undeclared 36 35 2 6 21 117Registered Republican 85 7 0 3 5 101Conservative GOP 85 3 2 3 6 87Swing Voter 41 32 2 7 18 155Liberal DEM 0 88 0 3 10 55Democrat 16 69 0 4 10 100Independent 32 28 6 8 26 42Republican 72 12 1 5 10 142May vote 23 46 0 5 26 28Will vote unless emergency 37 39 1 6 16 102Will definitely vote 56 29 2 5 9 16818 to 29 45 27 4 5 19 7930 to 45 52 32 0 5 12 11646 to 64 47 33 3 3 14 4465 and over 40 50 0 5 4 425 years or less in NH 32 49 5 3 12 376 to 10 years 52 19 6 14 8 2211 to 20 years 50 35 0 2 14 62More than 20 years 48 31 1 6 14 169Male 55 26 3 5 10 148Female 38 41 0 5 16 150High school or less 50 32 0 6 12 81Some college 39 33 2 6 20 80College graduate 54 31 2 5 9 82Post-graduate 41 42 3 4 10 51Abortion always legal 35 48 0 5 12 147Legal in some cases 58 23 4 4 11 101Always illegal 67 13 0 5 16 29Gun owning household 58 27 0 6 10 87No guns in household 43 37 2 4 14 199U.S. Congress - Second DistrictBass Swett Other Undecided (N)STATEWIDE 52% 30% 5% 14% 266Registered Democrat 13 77 0 10 65Undeclared 47 23 10 20 114Registered Republican 87 3 2 8 87Conservative GOP 90 0 1 10 76Swing Voter 48 28 9 15 137Liberal DEM 6 76 3 14 53Democrat 18 64 5 13 104Independent 44 18 10 28 47Republican 86 4 2 8 112May vote 48 13 13 26 23Will vote unless emergency 51 23 7 18 75Will definitely vote 52 35 3 10 16818 to 29 49 21 10 20 6030 to 45 46 34 4 16 10246 to 64 57 31 5 6 4665 and over 59 29 3 8 545 years or less in NH 51 33 4 12 396 to 10 years 46 25 18 11 2411 to 20 years 31 50 4 15 51More than 20 years 59 23 4 14 152Male 63 22 4 11 129Female 41 37 7 15 137High school or less 54 26 2 18 47Some college 49 34 6 11 56College graduate 57 24 6 13 92Post-graduate 44 37 5 14 70Abortion always legal 43 33 6 18 131Legal in some cases 60 29 3 9 92Always illegal 78 10 0 11 24Gun owning household 60 19 4 17 96No guns in household 46 37 6 11 164N.H. SenateRepublican Democrat Undecided (N)STATEWIDE 40% 35% 25% 586Registered Democrat 3 76 21 156Undeclared 31 33 36 228Registered Republican 80 4 16 202Conservative GOP 85 1 14 165Swing Voter 30 35 35 303Liberal DEM 3 82 15 118Democrat 5 79 16 221Independent 23 21 56 85Republican 76 3 21 263May vote 29 41 30 55Will vote unless emergency 34 35 31 176Will definitely vote 45 33 22 3541st District 44 31 26 3072nd District 36 39 24 279Northern NH 43 33 23 72Western NH 30 46 24 57Central/Lakes 41 32 27 92Hillsborough County 42 31 27 183Seacoast 40 36 24 18118 to 29 45 36 19 15030 to 45 39 36 25 23246 to 64 41 30 29 8965 and over 39 34 28 965 years or less in NH 38 38 24 806 to 10 years 49 30 21 4511 to 20 years 39 45 17 117More than 20 years 40 31 29 335Male 50 26 25 278Female 32 43 25 307High school or less 45 28 27 136Some college 40 34 26 148College graduate 43 34 23 177Post-graduate 30 44 25 123Abortion always legal 29 48 24 281Legal in some cases 53 22 25 206Always illegal 60 19 21 57Gun owning household 49 24 27 191No guns in household 35 41 24 374N.H. HouseRepublican Democrat Undecided (N)STATEWIDE 39% 32% 29% 573Registered Democrat 5 73 22 154Undeclared 30 29 41 221Registered Republican 76 2 21 198Conservative GOP 82 0 18 161Swing Voter 29 32 39 299Liberal DEM 6 75 19 112Democrat 5 75 19 214Independent 19 17 64 84Republican 75 1 24 256May vote 29 36 35 55Will vote unless emergency 33 30 36 171Will definitely vote 44 32 24 3461st District 43 28 29 3012nd District 35 36 29 271Northern NH 44 27 29 72Western NH 29 42 29 53Central/Lakes 40 34 26 88Hillsborough County 38 29 33 180Seacoast 41 33 26 18018 to 29 41 31 27 14430 to 45 39 30 31 22246 to 64 37 32 30 9265 and over 41 35 24 935 years or less in NH 35 34 31 816 to 10 years 52 22 26 4611 to 20 years 33 41 26 117More than 20 years 41 29 30 319Male 49 25 27 275Female 31 38 31 298High school or less 47 27 27 127Some college 39 33 28 140College graduate 42 29 29 180Post-graduate 27 40 33 124Abortion always legal 29 42 29 278Legal in some cases 49 22 29 196Always illegal 54 17 29 58Gun owning household 51 21 28 182No guns in household 34 37 29 371Favorability Rating - Charlie BassFavorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)STATEWIDE 46% 12% 20% 22% 640Registered Democrat 27 11 41 21 166Undeclared 42 14 14 30 261Registered Republican 67 10 10 14 213Conservative GOP 64 9 10 16 173Swing Voter 47 11 18 23 336Liberal DEM 17 17 37 28 122Democrat 29 14 33 24 234Independent 51 11 15 22 100Republican 60 9 10 21 276May vote 29 22 8 40 71Will vote unless emergency 44 11 17 27 199Will definitely vote 51 10 23 16 3711st District 42 13 15 30 3392nd District 51 11 25 13 302Northern NH 46 13 17 25 83Western NH 46 13 23 18 59Central/Lakes 53 11 24 11 101Hillsborough County 48 10 26 16 194Seacoast 41 13 12 34 20318 to 29 41 12 15 31 16330 to 45 46 14 21 19 24446 to 64 50 7 23 20 9765 and over 56 7 18 19 995 years or less in NH 28 14 10 47 896 to 10 years 45 12 21 22 4811 to 20 years 38 11 27 25 123More than 20 years 54 11 20 15 359Male 52 9 19 20 305Female 41 14 20 25 335High school or less 55 13 13 19 147Some college 39 13 23 25 155College graduate 50 8 19 23 197Post-graduate 41 12 25 22 127Abortion always legal 39 10 24 26 303Legal in some cases 55 13 15 17 222Always illegal 61 8 7 24 60Gun owning household 53 13 16 18 208No guns in household 44 11 21 25 399Favorability Rating - Jeb BradleyFavorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)STATEWIDE 25% 17% 15% 43% 637Registered Democrat 17 17 25 42 165Undeclared 20 18 15 46 260Registered Republican 38 16 7 39 212Conservative GOP 39 15 10 35 173Swing Voter 22 19 14 45 336Liberal DEM 15 14 24 47 122Democrat 16 17 21 45 234Independent 20 11 21 48 100Republican 33 19 8 40 276May vote 19 16 16 49 69Will vote unless emergency 19 20 13 48 197Will definitely vote 30 16 16 39 3701st District 34 15 15 35 3372nd District 15 20 15 51 300Northern NH 30 16 10 44 82Western NH 11 16 12 61 59Central/Lakes 31 16 14 39 99Hillsborough County 24 19 20 38 195Seacoast 27 17 14 43 20218 to 29 31 14 16 39 16330 to 45 25 20 14 41 24446 to 64 20 15 17 48 9765 and over 20 12 15 53 1005 years or less in NH 25 12 12 51 896 to 10 years 23 16 21 40 4811 to 20 years 31 19 10 40 123More than 20 years 23 17 17 43 360Male 25 16 13 45 304Female 26 18 17 40 333High school or less 28 13 15 44 147Some college 20 21 15 44 155College graduate 28 17 13 42 197Post-graduate 24 18 17 42 127Abortion always legal 22 16 14 47 303Legal in some cases 25 20 16 39 223Always illegal 39 13 14 34 60Gun owning household 26 19 8 47 208No guns in household 25 16 18 41 399Favorability Rating - Martha Fuller ClarkFavorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)STATEWIDE 27% 14% 29% 30% 639Registered Democrat 48 12 12 27 166Undeclared 26 17 24 33 261Registered Republican 13 11 48 28 212Conservative GOP 7 9 54 30 173Swing Voter 30 16 23 30 336Liberal DEM 50 10 8 32 122Democrat 45 14 11 29 234Independent 26 15 28 32 100Republican 14 11 44 32 276May vote 26 16 24 34 69Will vote unless emergency 28 15 24 33 199Will definitely vote 28 12 33 28 3711st District 30 12 37 21 3392nd District 24 16 20 40 300Northern NH 20 12 26 43 83Western NH 14 14 15 56 59Central/Lakes 31 11 37 21 100Hillsborough County 28 15 28 29 194Seacoast 33 14 31 23 20318 to 29 27 11 30 31 16330 to 45 26 15 30 29 24446 to 64 24 15 32 30 9765 and over 33 5 22 39 995 years or less in NH 28 12 21 39 896 to 10 years 23 12 36 29 4811 to 20 years 31 15 21 33 123More than 20 years 26 13 33 28 359Male 20 12 37 31 305Female 34 15 21 30 334High school or less 22 15 32 31 147Some college 25 13 29 33 155College graduate 29 10 32 30 197Post-graduate 36 15 21 29 127Abortion always legal 37 11 23 30 303Legal in some cases 19 17 33 32 222Always illegal 21 7 37 35 60Gun owning household 21 14 40 25 208No guns in household 31 12 23 34 399Favorability Rating - Katrina SwettFavorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N)STATEWIDE 22% 13% 29% 36% 641Registered Democrat 43 12 14 31 166Undeclared 16 14 26 44 262Registered Republican 12 11 46 30 213Conservative GOP 11 13 47 29 173Swing Voter 20 14 27 39 336Liberal DEM 43 12 11 35 121Democrat 35 13 15 37 233Independent 22 13 29 36 100Republican 12 13 41 34 277May vote 18 15 18 49 72Will vote unless emergency 18 15 24 43 199Will definitely vote 25 11 34 29 3711st District 19 11 27 44 3392nd District 26 15 33 27 302Northern NH 22 16 23 38 84Western NH 26 14 32 28 59Central/Lakes 25 12 36 27 101Hillsborough County 23 14 35 28 195Seacoast 18 10 23 50 20318 to 29 17 11 30 42 16330 to 45 24 16 31 29 24446 to 64 19 13 34 34 9765 and over 28 6 24 42 1005 years or less in NH 19 6 14 61 896 to 10 years 16 13 29 42 4811 to 20 years 28 14 27 31 123More than 20 years 21 14 34 30 360Male 16 11 39 33 306Female 27 15 20 38 336High school or less 18 10 29 43 147Some college 23 14 28 35 155College graduate 21 14 32 33 196Post-graduate 26 14 27 32 127Abortion always legal 23 12 24 41 302Legal in some cases 20 16 34 30 223Always illegal 17 12 37 34 60Gun owning household 15 16 33 36 208No guns in household 26 12 27 35 399

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WMUR / UNH Poll - GOP Candidates Lead in Both NH Congressional Races 10/11/2002

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