The race for the Republican nomination for Congress from New Hampshire‚Äôs First District is wide open with none of the eight candidates able to pull away from the field. The favorites in the other Congressional primary races are winning easily.  Election: 200

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THE WMUR POLLUniversity of New Hampshire Survey CenterFIRST CD GOP RACE WIDE OPENBy: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 603/862-2226UNH Survey Centerwww.unh.edu/survey-centerDURHAM, NH -  The race for the Republican nomination for Congress from New Hampshire’s First District iswide open with none of the eight candidates able to pull away from the field.  The favorites in the other Congr s onalprimary races are winning easily.These findings are based on the latest WMUR Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire SurveyCenter for WMUR-TV, Manchester, NH.  Five hundred ninety-one (591) likely primary voters were interviewed betweenAugust 26 and September 3, 2002 (margin of sampling error, +/-4 percent). Included in this sample were 344 likely GOPprimary voters (margin of sampling error, +/-5 percent), and 247 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of samplingerror, +/-6 percent).GOP PRIMARY - FIRST CDIn the race to replace John Sununu from New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, eight relatively unknowncandidates are vying for the right to face Martha Fuller Clark in the November election.  However the media attention,and big dollars, of the candidates for U.S. Senate and New Hampshire Governor have overshadowed this important race.Currently, Jeb Bradley, State Senator from Wolfeboro holds a slight lead with 17 percent of the vote, followed by JohnStephen with 15 percent, Sean Mahoney with 9 percent, Wayne Barrows with 3 percent, and Vivian Clark with 3 percent.Fran Wendleboe, Gary Scott Hoffman, and Bob Bevill all received less than 3 percent of the vote.  An amazingly high 47percent of likely GOP primary voters say they are still undecided.Because of the high percentage of undecided voters, the WMUR / Union Leader debate this we k should play animportant part in determining the outcome of this race.GOP PRIMARY - SECOND CDFour-term Republican incumbent, Charlie Bass looks to easily win his primary challenge from long-shot GeneDouglas.  Bass currently is supported by 81 percent of likely Republican primary voters, Douglas is favored by 3 percent,1 percent favor some other candidate, and 15 percent are undecided.  Bass has already looked past the primary to hisNovember tilt with Katrina Swett, his likely Democratic challenger.DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - FIRST CDAlthough she has had her sights on the November 2002 election for sometime, Democrat Martha Fuller Clarkdoes face a primary challenge in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District from Sean Patrick Dean.  Clark should haveno difficulty holding off Dean as she currently leads 70 percent to 6 percent for Dean.  Three percent of likely Democraticprimary voters favor some other candidate, and 21 percent remain undecided.  Clark will face off in November against theeventual Republican nominee in what promises to be a close, hard fought election.Democratic Primary - Second CDIn the 2nd District, newcomer Katrina Swett, wife of former 2nd District Congressman Dick Swett, holds acomfortable lead over Norman Jackman, a lawyer from Lincoln, 56 percent to 21 percent with 22 percent still undecided.Jackman ran for the Democratic nomination in 2000, losing to Barney Brannen.  Swett now faces the difficult challengeof upsetting incumbent Charlie Bass in November.NH 1st CD Primary Election - Likely GOP Primary VotersBradley 17%Stephen 15Mahoney 9Barrows 3Clark 3Wendelboe 1Hoffman *Bevill *Other 4Undecided 47(N=145)NH 2nd CD Primary Election - Likely GOP Primary VotersBass 81%Douglas 3Other 1Undecided 15(N=186)NH 1st CD Primary Election - Likely Democratic Primary VotersClark 70%Dean 6Other 3Undecided 21(N=108)NH 2nd CD Primary Election - Likely Democratic Primary VotersSwett 56%Jackman 21Other 1Undecided 22(N=131)WMUR Poll MethodologyThese findings are based on the most recent WMUR Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire SurveyCenter from August 26 to September 3, 2002.  A random sample of 591 New Hampshire likely September primary voterswas interviewed by telephone.  In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to +/- 4 percent.  Resultsreported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.  Themargin of sampling error for likely 1st CD GOP primary voters (N=145) is +/-8 percent, the margin of sampling error forlikely 2nd GOP primary voters (N=186) is +/-7 percent, the margin of sampling error for likely 1st CD Democratic primaryvoters (N=108) is +/-9 percent, the margin of sampling error for likely 2nd Democratic primary voters (N=131) is +/-9percent.The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, sex of therespondent, region of the state, and likelihood of voting in the September 10 NH Primary Election.  In addition topotential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects,question wording effects, and non-response.Respondents to the Granite State Poll were asked:· ASK GOP IN 1ST CD ONLY  "Now, I'm going to read you the names of the candidates who are on the Republicanprimary ballot for U.S. Congress from the First District.  If you were voting in the Republican primary for U.S.Congress today, would you vote for ... Wayne Barrows ... Bob Bevill .. Jeb Bradley ... Vivian Clark... Gary ScottHoffman ... Sean Mahoney ... John Stephen ... or Fran Wendelboe?"  ROTATE CANDIDATES· ASK GOP IN 2ND CD ONLY  "Now, I'm going to read you the names of the candidates who are on the Republicanprimary ballot for U.S. Congress from the Second District.  If you were voting in the Republican primary for U.S.Congress today, would you vote for ... Charlie Bass or Eugene Douglas?"  ROTATE CANDIDATES· ASK DEMS IN 1ST CD ONLY  "Now, I'm going to read you the names of the candidates who are on the Democraticprimary ballot for U.S. Congress from the First District.  If you were voting in the Democratic primary for U.S.Congress today, would you vote for ... Martha Fuller Clark or Sean Patrick Dean?"   IF DK/UNDECIDED:  "Do youlean toward Dean or Clark?"· ASK DEMS IN 2ND CD ONLY  "Now, I'm going to read you the names of the candidates who are on theDemocratic primary ballot for U.S. Congress from the Second District.  If you were voting in the Democratic primaryfor U.S. Congress today, would you vote for ... Norman Jackman or Katrina Swett?"Republican 1st Congressional District PrimaryHoff- Wendel-Barrows Bradley Clark man Mahoney Stephen boe Other DK (N=)STATEWIDE 3% 17% 3% 0% 9% 15% 1% 4% 47% 145Undeclared 1 17 7 2 17 7 1 0 48 38Registered GOP 4 18 2 0 6 17 1 5 47 108Conservative GOP 4 23 1 0 11 14 1 5 41 69Moderate GOP 3 15 1 0 6 14 1 4 57 50Swing Voter 1 11 13 3 13 16 0 0 41 18Extremely interested 2 35 4 0 13 15 0 10 22 37Very interested 6 13 4 0 4 16 1 3 53 70Somewhat interested 1 8 2 2 14 13 0 1 60 37Will vote unless emergency 2 18 4 0 0 18 2 2 54 24Will definitely vote 4 17 3 1 11 14 1 5 45 120Northern NH 0 52 0 0 8 24 0 0 16 14Central/Lakes 0 12 0 0 29 5 2 0 52 17Hillsborough County 6 3 2 0 6 25 0 5 53 43Seacoast 3 21 6 1 6 9 1 5 49 7118 to 29 0 15 3 2 10 5 0 6 58 3630 to 45 0 16 2 0 6 19 0 0 57 4546 to 64 15 27 0 0 6 10 2 0 40 2365 and over 4 19 8 0 15 26 2 0 26 335 years or less in NH 0 9 0 5 18 6 3 0 60 136 to 10 years 0 19 4 0 0 17 0 12 48 1911 to 20 years 1 27 8 0 0 8 0 0 56 22More than 20 years 5 17 3 0 12 18 1 2 42 86Male 4 25 2 0 11 9 0 0 48 78Female 2 9 4 1 6 21 1 9 46 67High school or less 4 14 5 0 9 16 0 6 46 30Some college 1 19 1 0 12 14 1 9 45 41College graduate 6 21 6 1 10 13 0 0 42 44Post-graduate 3 15 2 0 4 20 2 0 55 27Republican 2nd Congressional District PrimaryBass Douglas Other Undecided (N=)STATEWIDE 81% 3% 1% 15% 186Undeclared 72 6 1 22 64Registered Republican 85 2 2 11 121Conservative GOP 88 1 0 11 85Moderate GOP 75 4 4 17 61Swing Voter 74 8 0 18 28Extremely interested in Primary 75 5 0 20 43Very interested 84 1 3 11 83Somewhat interested 79 5 0 16 57Will vote unless emergency 72 4 1 23 32Will definitely vote 83 3 1 13 152Northern NH 66 0 0 34 37Western NH 80 7 1 12 32Central/Lakes 84 0 0 16 49Hillsborough County 91 5 0 4 50Seacoast 74 8 11 7 1718 to 29 73 0 0 26 3230 to 45 76 8 3 12 5746 to 64 90 0 0 9 3265 and over 82 2 1 15 605 years or less in NH 68 0 0 32 136 to 10 years 64 0 0 36 1211 to 20 years 79 7 5 9 49More than 20 years 84 2 0 13 107Male 91 0 0 9 112Female 65 8 3 24 74High school or less 71 5 1 23 45Some college 82 2 0 16 50College graduate 85 4 3 9 69Post-graduate 86 0 0 14 20Democratic 1st Congressional District PrimaryClark Dean Other Undecided (N=)STATEWIDE 70% 6% 3% 21% 108Registered Democrat 73 5 4 17 81Undeclared 59 7 0 35 26Swing Voter 61 6 10 23 26Moderate DEM 64 3 3 30 30Liberal DEM 84 0 0 15 44Extremely interested in Primary 95 5 0 0 28Very interested 72 2 2 25 45Somewhat interested 49 12 9 30 31Will vote unless emergency 67 4 0 29 18Will definitely vote 70 5 4 20 88Northern NH 66 0 0 34 5Central/Lakes 79 20 0 1 7Hillsborough County 59 10 10 21 35Seacoast 75 2 0 23 6018 to 29 77 6 0 18 1630 to 45 66 11 2 21 4646 to 64 89 0 0 11 2065 and over 57 0 12 31 225 years or less in NH 57 0 0 43 66 to 10 years 86 8 0 7 1011 to 20 years 74 8 0 19 22More than 20 years 67 5 5 22 66Male 57 9 9 25 41Female 77 3 0 20 67High school or less 66 12 0 22 31Some college 59 1 0 39 16College graduate 75 4 3 18 34Post-graduate 73 3 10 14 26Democratic 2nd Congressional District PrimaryJackman Swett Other Undecided (N=)STATEWIDE 21% 56% 1% 22% 131Registered Democrat 16 64 0 20 81Undeclared 31 42 2 26 50Swing Voter 24 32 3 40 23Moderate DEM 16 60 0 24 53Liberal DEM 16 69 0 15 49Extremely interested in Primary 23 54 0 23 27Very interested 12 66 0 22 60Somewhat interested 31 42 2 25 39Will vote unless emergency 19 41 5 36 15Will definitely vote 22 58 0 20 113Northern NH 40 47 0 13 26Western NH 6 57 3 34 27Central/Lakes 27 68 0 5 35Hillsborough County 17 49 0 35 34Seacoast 10 56 0 35 918 to 29 29 42 4 25 1730 to 45 18 57 0 26 6146 to 64 25 68 0 7 2165 and over 26 54 0 19 275 years or less in NH 35 43 0 22 266 to 10 years 26 46 0 28 1411 to 20 years 10 55 4 31 19More than 20 years 19 62 0 19 70Male 28 48 0 24 67Female 15 63 1 21 64High school or less 15 50 0 36 23Some college 56 25 0 19 29College graduate 23 47 0 31 32Post-graduate 3 83 2 12 47

WMUR Poll - First CD Race Wide Open 9/04/2002

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WMUR Poll - First CD Race Wide Open 9/04/2002

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